Great post on X if Anybody interested in some great alpha on #MSTR

It’s well worth a read if you’re interested in its valuation compared with various other stocks. It has been exceedingly difficult for WallStreet to get their head wrapped this particular stock.

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https://x.com/wall7testprep/status/1881865292130984059

(For those that wont or don’t want to click out, Ill copy paste in the comments)

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Discussion

Following.

Today Jeff Walton posted that MSTR is now ranked as the 101st largest company in the US and has qualified in the market cap category for 125 days in a row to be able to get into the S&P 500. What I find IRONIC is that right above MSTR today is Apollo Global Managment Company (APO).

Apollo is an extremely complicated business where its investment executives choose a wide array of business opportunities to invest in. They own whole insurance companies, and they do a plethora of private equity investing where they could invest in early-stage companies that maybe could do an IPO. Sometimes they find solutions where they can lend money to safe companies that need bridge loans at a good percentage. They invest in real estate projects and sometimes lend money on real estate projects.

In other words, they take their money and they invest it in a wide array of other businesses opportunities. And of course the hope is that all those many businesses ventures will go up in value over time. The WSJ website states that APO has $29 per share of Net Asset Value when you take all of its assets minus liabilities. Yet its share price is $169. That would mean that APO is trading at 5.8 times its NAV. And APO is actually one of the stocks that has a good price to NAV. Many other large companies have price to NAV which are way over 2X or even 6X. But I choose APO because it is similar to MSTR in some ways in that they take their money and they look all over to see what they can invest in.

But the thing is, no one ever complains that it trades to 6 times its total net assets. APO was put in the Nasdaq 100 and last year it was rumored in July that it would get put in the S&P 500 when the stock was around $100 per share. It has since moved to where it is now without a huge change in fundamentals. If moved in anticipation of getting into the S&P 500. And it was added.

And when you look at APO's investments they are good, but is no big section of APO's business that is growing faster than Bitcoin.

MSTR does exactly the same thing as Apollo conceptual-wise in that it looks for something to invest in. And that investment happens to be Bitcoin which is growing faster than anything I can find in APO's portfolio. Beyond that MSTR invests in Bitcoin but it does not stand pat on just that. It provides numerous other ways that Bond investors, and preferred stock investors, and options traders can get exposure to Bitcoin which all increases the demand for MSTR shares.

Also, still most investors around the world as well as money managers still cannot buy Bitcoin directly, not even the Bitcoin ETF's so there is still a segment that must use MSTR for exposure to Bitcoin.

And I believe that it is obvious that as Bitcoin becomes part of the financial system around the world the largest individual holders of Bitcoin will be able to further monetize it and that includes MSTR.

I think APO will do pretty good if their managers continue to manage at least 50 different business interests in a profitable way. And I know those APO guys are smart guys, but it seems like a fairly complex business to operate. MSTR however is tied to Bitcoin and I think that Bitcoin will grow faster than other investments and thus there will always be greater and greater demand for MSTR shares.

I point this out to show that I think all of the "analysts" out there that continue to complain about MSTR's premium to NAV are being naive with that line of thinking. They never apply it to other companies so why apply it to MSTR?

Just Bitcoin going up has pushed MSTR into the Nasdaq 100 and if it keeps going up no matter what the NAV is, with the FAS-B rules coming; Bitcoin will push MSTR right into the S&P 500. FAS-B as most of you know will let MSTR add the gain of its Bitcoin holdings in any one quarter. And right now, the gain for this quarter would be great. Just think of how that will put MSTR on the map for computerized stock screeners that look for income. For the first time MSTR will be showing up on all those screens and logarithms. I believe this will bring in a whole new tranche of buyers.

Anyway, I thought is was funny that MSTR has moved its way up right next to APO. I bet that regardless of MSTR's daily movements in stock price it is going to pass APO pretty soon if Bitcoin does what most people think it will.

I really appreciate cross posting the good info from Twitter. I don't mind people linking to twitter but that's very low signal and 90% of the time I click the link and then see notifications and messages and 45 minutes later, I throw my hands up, take a walk around the house, and come back to Nostr. What you did gave me a relaxed place to read the information. I didn't think about how much the poster will be getting paid for the engagement. And I came back to show my gratitude. 4 our of 5 stars, would come again.

Appreciate the feedback. I completely agree with your sentiment about X.

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glad to see you posting stuff from another social media platform.... can we please get over the BS where some think this should be forbidden

MSTR is going to make a lot of people a lot of money and already has just like bitcoin. You can sit on the sidelines and complain, just like people did with bitcoin, or you can make money. Pretty simple.

I think the following is because a lot of these analysts are obviously biased or missed the boat so they look for anything to FUD.

"I point this out to show that I think all of the "analysts" out there that continue to complain about MSTR's premium to NAV are being naive with that line of thinking. They never apply it to other companies so why apply it to MSTR?"

I appreciate the feedback. Im always in the lookout for solid alpha content on X which a sea of noise.

Much advice is blatantly self serving but occasionally, there are thinkers that show a measure of unique thought. I will always share it here, good or bad.

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This guy is all about MSTR, you probably already aware of him but in case you are not

https://x.com/PunterJeff

I'll say this - I don't disagree with the MSTR bull case, but the APO comparison and the general logic there doesn't pass the sniff test.

I was once more active trying to pick single stocks before Bitcoin (and before I knew how these markets worked) and I saw a food production company trading at essentially 2x, while another was trading at 10x.

I thought, great! I'll buy the undervalued one, since it should be worth 10x too! And then the 10x one crashed -80% and my stock tanked with it.

In a bitcoinized world, nobody is paying 3,000,000 bitcoin for a company which owns 500,000 bitcoin and not much else. Someone might pay 510,000 bitcoin for the brand and leadership team. That's about it.

I understand we aren't there yet and therefore MSTR can continue to outperform bitcoin, if you are willing to understand that you are playing a fiat game and there are many risks + assumptions baked into your view.

I love your take.

I’ve considered this angle and it appears that there are many folks that live in countries that don’t allow investing in BTC or its etfs. I have had people specifically tell me they wanted exposure to bitcoin and that MSTR was the best performing derivative with exposure to bitcoin.

Additionally its a nasdaq listed company.

People want what they want.

Agreed. And I've clearly been wrong by being cautious about it since $100 lmao. It's just not my arena.

The only other thing I'll say is, all the trapped capital is how Saylor gets his yield. If he dilutes shares to buy Bitcoin, that is the gap he is bridging. It's a bit similar to shitcoins - it becomes a race to zero once enough people play the game. But as we've seen, that could take a decade to play out. I'd give a decent probability to MSTR being over $1000 this year.

Best of luck to you.

The convertible bonds cant be exercised until a specific strike price. Only then does the “dilution” occur.

Keeps the ratio ~2.3-3x bitcoin.

Im telling you man, what he’s doing is different.

There’s 100s of hours of debate on this available.

I highly recommend PunterJeff who was just on with Preston Pysh a week ago. He explains it very eloquently.

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/microstrategy-2025-w-jeff-walton/