Discussion
So prob $200k within the next 2 years…
More..
I was thinking the same, it appears to show diminishing returns. But I don’t know what I’m talking about and Bitcoin will continue to do its thing. Just when I think I see a trend, something different happens. “But it’s different this time!” Either way, I’ll keep buying!
Bitcoin won’t go up 10,000% the same way it did, that’s for sure 😹
Just got twice as difficult to mine since block 840000, time to work twice as hard and make it count, for the great grand kids!!!🫡🙌
It just might catch on!
And the alignment of macro catalysts for #bitcoin this cycle coupled with historical price action should be exciting to see play out! SBR + ETFs + non confrontational admin + scarcity issuance rate lower than gold = can’t wait
Stay humble and stack sats
Sned it
🧐🤓
ONWARD 🫡
Bananas zone, engage!
but the capital needed to push bitcoin in that direction this cycle is 10-20X more than previous cycle, which part of the market do you think would show up this time?
It is nigh
Someone sent me this today, we have definitely room to grow…
Ask him.. "Did you buy in 2022 then?"
I like hopium 🫂
Meh. The trend is for less gain in each cycle. Makes sense.
thanks for sharing first bull run here so good to have some pointers to where it might go
this made me nut
STAY HUMBLE STACK SATS
HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT ITSELF BUT IT RHYMES
Oh my
The chart that took souls last cycle
Chart title should be in all caps
MUH HUMILITY IS SLIPPING AWAY
Next 3 months gonna be 🚀.
Next 9 months gonna be 🚀🚀🚀.
This chart appears to show diminishing returns, leading many to believe this cycle will see lower returns than 2021. It is my strong belief that this cycle will be much closer to 2017 than most realize. You are not ready for the next 9 months, you're also not ready for the following historic bear market that will see prices return to current values by Jan 2027.
The value per coin will rise to 3 - 6 times it's average mining cost before crashing 80%+, as it has done every cycle. Currently, the mining cost and the market price are nearly the same. I believe mining cost will rise to $150k - $200k while the market price will rise from $500k - $1000k over the next 6 - 10 months when peak FOMO is seen. I will personally start BCA some of my stack once we hit 3x the average mining cost, in preparation for the crash.
Don't day trade, you want more Bitcoin not more dollars. DCA when the price is around or below the cost to mine (majority of the time), but BCA when the price is significantly inflated compared to production cost which only really happens every 4th year since Bitcoin was created.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
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This chart appears to show diminishing returns, leading many to believe this cycle will see lower returns than 2021. It is my strong belief that this cycle will be much closer to 2017 than most realize. You are not ready for the next 9 months, you're also not ready for the following historic bear market that will see prices return to current values by Jan 2027.
The value per coin will rise to 3 - 6 times it's average mining cost before crashing 80%+, as it has done every cycle. Currently, the mining cost and the market price are nearly the same. I believe mining cost will rise to $150k - $200k while the market price will rise from $500k - $1000k over the next 6 - 10 months when peak FOMO is seen. I will personally start BCA some of my stack once we hit 3x the average mining cost, in preparation for the crash.
Don't day trade, you want more Bitcoin not more dollars. DCA when the price is around or below the cost to mine (majority of the time), but BCA when the price is significantly inflated compared to production cost which only really happens every 4th year since Bitcoin was created.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost
2021 was probably an anomaly since the fall of FTX and other scams put a dent in the bull market rise. I believe you. Idk what BCA means but I will likely be pausing my DCA when the price is >$200k. Maybe I’ll make a few purchases with my stack as well.
DCA = Dollar Cost Average (Out of Dollars)
BCA = Bitcoin Cost Average (Out of Bitcoin)
If what we want is a stable unit of account to facilitate true global adoption, then we need to work to reduce the highs and raise the lows of each cycle as those cause fear and suffering. I believe the cost to mine is the anchor on the market price so helping move the market price closer to the mining cost, most effective when it significantly deviates during the cycles, is my goal to achieve that stability.
I do not consider this trading Bitcoin even though it might be seen that way. To me it helping accelerate adoption of the best money ever created, while helping to accelerate the downfall of the FIAT system.
A questionable strategy for sure. Shouldn’t we instead be accepting volatility as a part of nature? Also, this means you’ll sell and pay a fortune in capital gains tax?
And it’s risky to assume bitcoin will follow the same path as it had in the past. Like you said, you want more bitcoin and less dollars.
Volatility is absolutely a part of life and the natural world and should be embraced as normal. I'm not trying to time natural market volatility though, that's a short term phenomenon and trying to time that is very high risk, I'm essentially trying to balance the actions of those who invest emotionally in something they don't understand and in turn be a custodian for the wealth they lose in the process.
The motions of the past are no guarantee that the future will repeat, yes, but if the forces behind those motions are virtually unchanged then the motions they lead to are highly likely to repeat in some form.
The halving abruptly increases the cost to mine a Bitcoin, this abrupt change leads to a wave-like cycle of value similar to how a rock dropped in a pond leads to ripples.
The halving is guaranteed through consensus, the resulting wave is a natural result of it.
Also, FTX was a contributor but I believe the China ban on mining is what took the steam out of the market mid cycle. This is what caused the double peak and the much lower than expected top.
The mining cost being the anchor on the price, with mining hashrate nearly cutting in half the support for greater than $100k within the cycle was lost.
is it about to blow off our lil nips???
very nice model! Grazie.