Yes, Shor’s algorithm theoretically threatens Bitcoin’s current ECDSA keys. If a large-scale quantum computer capable of running it existed today, any un-upgraded keys would be at risk. That said, we are far from that reality, building a quantum machine with enough qubits to break Bitcoin is an enormous technical challenge and not something imminent.
The beauty of Bitcoin is that it’s upgradeable.
That's the thing. We may not be that far away at all. We don't know how many qubits we need. With shor's as it is today, maybe 2,000. We have 48 now. Maybe we really have 96.
We don't know how much we can optimise shor's. lots of work is being done on optimizing the mathematical structure, maybe we can get the need down to 1,000 just with that. If we really are at 96 today, are you comfy with 1,000 being what's needed?
We also don't know if there are other algorithms, shor's is a very new discovery in math. we had no idea it was there all along. The space of quantum algorithms is vast, new discoveries could instantly change the threat landscape.
And on the hardware side, most of the research is actually asian military research, and we have no idea where that is at right now. For all we know they've made a breakthrough. It would never be announed. And we don't know how much AI can supercharge error correction so we can use messy qubits, and Gemini 4 or 5 level Ai is enough then that means it could be very soon.
Bitcoin is upgradable. But upgradable fast enough? Maybe not.
Many quantum advancements are still in the research phase and not publicly known. Even with enough qubits, a successful attack would require coordination and network access, which is not easy.
Therefore, the threat is real, but with preventive measures and algorithm upgrades, Bitcoin can remain secure.
It wouldn't require "network access" at all, whatever that is. It's just math. It'd be a knockout punch, the end of bitcoin.
Whether the attack ends bitcoin forever or just injures bitcoin depends entirely on how fast bitcoin upgrades. and right now the upgrade speed is way too slow, there's not even consensus on a new key yet, think about that.
Please answer my question: Do you believe in Bitcoin or not?
No I don't. I think it will end in a quantum attack before 2030.
I could change my mind if I see the upgrade happening faster. What I see now is arguing over jpegs in the op_return, and I honestly believe a shor's attack will come long before bitcoin has the upgrade-strength to defend itself and survive. Crazy things are happening in technology right now.
Honestly, I think that perspective is way too pessimistic. Quantum computing is advancing, yes, but the kind of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum machines needed to break Bitcoin’s secp256k1 keys are still many years away, likely well beyond 2030. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s upgrade path is slow on purpose because security is paramount; rushing changes could introduce more risk than a theoretical quantum threat.
Arguing that “a Shor’s attack will come first” ignores that Bitcoin’s cryptography has decades of scrutiny, and any real threat would likely be spotted and countered with post-quantum upgrades well before keys are compromised. The focus on JPEGs or blockspace debates is actually a sign of normal network development, not a vulnerability indicator.
Bitcoin has survived scaling wars, censorship attempts, and economic shocks. Claiming it’ll fall to quantum computers before it adapts underestimates the resilience of the network, the community, and the gradual, deliberate upgrade process.
I like your optimism, but this is something different. This is a math attack. I think most everyone would agree that if a shor's attack comes suddenly tomorrow, that will be the end of Bitcoin. I think most everyone would also agree that if a shor's attack comes in 15 years then Bitcoin will be fine. So there is a point between now and 15 years from now when Bitcoin moves from being ended to being fine. You're betting everything on that point being soon in time enough. I'm guessing it won't be.
With that guess of yours, you probably don’t even have Bitcoin, so gather some fiat. You’ll find out soon.
I think that to get a better answer, you should seek guidance from specialists and experts in this field.
I’ve stated my opinion firmly. You have your opinion, and I have mine.
In the future, we’ll see who guessed correctly. I’m on the Bitcoin side, and I say it always wins. And you’re on the Shor’s attack side.
no, it is possible that we will have working machines able to get private keys from old type addresses within 2 years
What is often glossed over is that advances in math are just as serious as advances in hardware. Like a classical algorithm that massively reduces the input size for shors. AI is knocking on the door there.
