For what it's worth, I do not believe the reason why BTCUSD is up, is because we're seeing a flight-to-safety effect. I believe we are seeing the result of the market believing there's going to be lower rates now, and betting on the Fed pulling back from the tightening cycle. If you want to see this very clearly, just look at bitcoin's correlation to the NASDAQ today.
đź’Ż
For sure. The flight-to-safety effect is still very small.
I get why people *want* to believe this. It’s an exciting narrative to believe that people are rushing into bitcoin and exiting the banking system towards the safety of a sovereign financial life. But I’m not sure the data really supports that being the nature of these price moves.
Further, if the CPI comes in above expectations, you’re going to see a whiplash effect here, and the price will likely ratchet back down, as the market sloshes around trying to predict the Fed’s next move.
I get a lot of people desperately don’t want this to be the world we’re living in. But it just kinda is.
The pump began yesterday evening almost exactly when news broke about the fed backstopping. Not when the contagion fears were at max during the weekend.
Perhaps it’s more a function of knowing usdc would repeg and assuming lower interest rate hikes and potential QE
With the backstop the FED probably allow themselves to be able to hike rates even higher by covering the consequences for banks of bond price collapse. I personally don’t think they’ll pivot just yet… but at the end of the day, this is all short term noise. We should all stay humble and stack sats 🤝
I’m not sure what I think. I am not convinced there aren’t more shoes to drop and all of my assumptions will not just evaporate in the coming hours, days and weeks. I’m just trying to encourage people to avoid falling into narrative-driven thinking and to pay attention to hard data, instead.
For sure ⚡️
Yep, but I understand the other sentiment.
Could still be both.
Jack Mallers mentioned record Bitcoin purchases over the wknd.
Yeah, you can’t neglect the Fed’s impact, but the NASDAQ is up 1.5% versus 15% for Bitcoin…and that’s in the setting of a suggested tax on bitcoin miners and un-banking exchanges. There’s certainly more to it than just the Fed.
Correct, but also interesting to see bitcoin leading above crypto. Risk assets on BUT bitcoin chosen as we because it’s gaining steam as “safer” than other cryptos at least. Hopefully eventually it will be viewed as the *safest* option mainstream
I mean, I obviously think bitcoin is safer than “crypto”! Haha.
How about traders fleeing from Stablecoins to BTC in this wake? Could have some impact?
Also, #[1]​ just started following you and appreciate your info. Thanks man
Your post is generating a lot of discussion.
Added to the https://member.cash/hot feed
You're probably right, but let's meme a new narrative ;)
Good call sir.
I think what you’re missing is that a flight into certain risk assets has become equivalent to a flight to safety. When the Fed loosens, investors rush into assets like equities (and Bitcoin) because they know dollars will become worth less. That’s where the correlation with the NASDAQ stems from. Over time of course, as further quantitative easing inevitably plays out Bitcoin significantly outperforms other assets, though.
I get what you're saying and I don't totally disagree. But that's just the market being a market: capital is chasing yield, while trying to price risk discounting with the information available.
