According to Ray Dalio
China has 33% of the world’s manufacturing, AI suggests 31%.
This is more than the US, Europe and Japan combined
Discussion
It's evident. Just do the Math on industrial production PPP on any publicly available data source or simply enter in any supermarket all around the work and look at labels
My 2023 simple calculations with PPP and shares of industrial output delivered even higher numbers. Don't trust Ray Dalio, trust me 😂
Don't trust, verify.
On any macro, global statistics, agnosticism is my default.
However if you've done original research and are prepared to share it, I would "turst" you more than consensus.
I was joking. Ray Dalio deserves always attention when he speaks. Imo he is a very smart guy, surely smarter than me.
Regarding my 'research' i posted the results on a brief presentation on LinkedIn
For me, only facts and work deserve attention.
Seriously!
Let me be more nuanced.
I’ve watched most of the interview. In areas where Ray has done the work, his informed opinion is obvious and I respect it. He is then asked about the future of Education, an area it is obvious from his manner he has not thought deeply about. He thinks on the fly and gives a good answer, but one that clear he’s had to form in real time. I think his answer is decent, but is clearly undeveloped and so I would pay less attention to those views.
Agree. He can be too attached to his opinions. Like, the only options for AI are totalitarian control or anarchy? C’mon man, you have to get a little more creative and outside of the extremes.
Historically, our ability to predict the future has had a100% failure rate.
We still need to try, if only to decide the directions we wish to go, but I am from the agnostic camp when it comes to predicting it.
Yep. When prediction becomes prophecy it becomes a different psychological phenomenon.
But the incoming time warp singularity hinted by Ray is very real, imho we are facing a trichotomous scenario. I cannot see a middle path in between these 3: either annihilation or totalitarian or anarco-utopic future awaits us with the AI.
It's a quantum leap into the unknown. A lightspeed qualitative change of a scale never seen before the first prokaryote appeared on earth.
You don't think fire had the same effect to cave men, or the first nuclear explosion the "Trinity test", that had a calculated 0.03% change of setting the atmosphere on fire and destroying all of humanity?
Trinity Test, meh...
But fire is a better example for its disruptive impact on the world.
Fire changed everything for humans. Without fire human civilizations couldn't flourish. Trinity test is just a long term consequence of the discovery of fire.
OK, at least one of my points hit home 😂
Let's hope AI is more a FRIENDLY fire, than a friendly FIRE.
OK... For this bullshit i deserve sats 😂
The singularity is the technocratic version of heaven. It’s a myth
No it isn't. All you need to see it is a chart of any measurement of technological progress on y the and time on the x.
I mean fire could be the real leap that moved us from being smart hairy animals to be naked beings above the whole food chain
And you can't print manufacturing capacity or energy... Like you can dollars and euro and yen...