topology must shift ??? what does that mean ? and 77 % in payments space is really bad !

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That means that channels must be rearranged or additional Bitcoin capital is added strategically.

What happens to these failed transactions? Are funds returned to the sender, or is it lost to the network? Or is the failure determined on send and the transaction just fails with an error code? I've sent many 100k+ transactions and have never had one fail.

An unsuccessful payment (in the vast majority of cases) is returned to the sender immediately. In very rare cases, a payment gets stuck and is returned to the sender in some (20-80) blocks, depending on settings.

Many payment failures go completely undetected since payments are attempted iteratively through a trial and error process until success or the timeout.

Failures primarily cost time.

Oh .. that make sense .. you almost gave me a heart attack with that 77 % number :-)

Oh I see. That explains why the fail rate may not be apparent on the surface. Thanks for explaining that.

This is an important detail to include in your initial post to avoid misleading and scaring people!

23% failure rate for cash is wild AF.

I guess it is okay cuz the payment is immediately returned to the sender ! I assumed money was lost :-)

So I have at least a 23% chance of failing to buy my monthly groceries. That's fucking fantastic. /s