Lightning payment reliability for $100 payments has been launched higher by Bitcoin's price increase.
$100 of BTC can now be sent anywhere in the lightning network with a 77% chance of success, up 20% from last year.
To improve further, lightning network topology must shift.
Glad we have Monero for reliable and private payments > $100.
Bitcoin does the same, but better & you can go much much higher than monero can stomach.
77% chance
Stfu shit for brains.
Lighting in off chain, side network layer 2 bullshit that has little to no txn on main net.
So how tf do miners secure the network without earning fees?
Dumbasses. It should have been monero off the bat nostr:nprofile1qqsrhuxx8l9ex335q7he0f09aej04zpazpl0ne2cgukyawd24mayt8gprfmhxue69uhkcmmrdd3x77pwve5kzar2v9nzucm0d5hszxmhwden5te0wfjkccte9emk2um5v4exucn5vvhxxmmd9ux73xm6 not this bullshit.
Your shitcoin sucks & now you're throwing tantrums on a niche part of the internet.
Your life sucks for sure.
Just so we're clear, Bitcoin transactions are fine & healthy.
Monero on the other hand is suffering from poor adoption. The big uptick in 24 was a spam attack that is well noted.
https://github.com/monero-project/monero/issues/9240
Impressive, now let's see what real world adoption looks like
Bitcoin has 500x the market cap of monero, but only 10x, and decreasing, of monero's transaction count
Describing a relationship and referencing market cap shows how stupid you are.
Market cap is a nonsense metric to be correlating with TX count.
Of course the mkt cap is a nonsense metric, otherwise if monero was 10% of btc like it does in tx count, 1 XMR would be worth 10k USD but now it's at almost 250 usd...
That just showcases how unhealthy btc is as a ghost town, very little adoption even years later, and still get a beaten by an unknown "criminal coin" that's not even listed on any exchanges.
But keep hodling bro
How much nonsense can you drivel in one day?
I posted the TX counts, run the regression BTC is meaningfully increasing TX counts even with LN offloading & sits at healthy amounts as we speak.
Meanwhile XMR has seen almost no improvement in TX counts, with the only spike being a spam attack that was easy to do and fucked up your chain for months.
You chart literally shows txs falling of a cliff. Blocks are empty. Real world businesses data shows lightning struggles to make 1% of total volume, while XMR leads at 50%.
XMR charts continues increasing, never falling for all its history, exchanges keep delisting and it remains unaffected, we have our own rails, xmrbazaar, haveno, and more coming, the spam attack resolved itself because of the cost, nothing was ever fucked up, XMR users remain unaffected, next upgrade reduces even further the incentives of an attack, next upgrade brings LN to monero, etc...
What I see is many reasons why btc is failing, and on the other side many reasons why XMR is succeeding
fucked up how?
right!
what is the source for this data?
This is data that we provide from Lightning Network "Gossip" - BOLT 7
and how did you aggregate it?
Databases 💻 and Data Science 🧪
oookay
what databases? 🤨
Can you clarify the question? There's too many ways to answer that.
Every LND node has a database that is bbolt, but we use internal databases as well that are more optimized like Postgres and several graph-specific databases for certain calculations.
thanks 🙏
sorry, im not knowledgeable enough to know what the LN gossip tells you.
do you have insight into the network at large?
specifically for this metric
assuming its an simple aggregate of your own nodes and counts of how frequently amounts of different sizes are sent and fail?
or is there more data available to you?
what about mpp? wouldnt that skew the data towards smaller payments?
thanks for any information you can share 😀
maybe still too broad?
I'm learning about LN and more interested in the data available and the methods used to analyze it than the specifics of the databases.
Ah, no worries!
Gossip describes the information contained in the Lightning Spec "BOLT" 7. You can see the information exchanged here, per spec: https://github.com/lightning/bolts/blob/master/07-routing-gossip.md
The gossip messages contain node and channel information as well as updates to them. Individual payment information is not shared with gossip, only the existence of payment channel through which payments can be made.
The animated graphic of max flow is the result of a complex simulation of payments from random sources and destinations to generate an average of the network performance. Payments are assumed to take multiple paths and exhaust all available liquidity.
You can learn more about Max Flow and why it matters on our blog: https://amboss.tech/blog/the-metric-that-matters
topology must shift ??? what does that mean ? and 77 % in payments space is really bad !
That means that channels must be rearranged or additional Bitcoin capital is added strategically.
What happens to these failed transactions? Are funds returned to the sender, or is it lost to the network? Or is the failure determined on send and the transaction just fails with an error code? I've sent many 100k+ transactions and have never had one fail.
An unsuccessful payment (in the vast majority of cases) is returned to the sender immediately. In very rare cases, a payment gets stuck and is returned to the sender in some (20-80) blocks, depending on settings.
Many payment failures go completely undetected since payments are attempted iteratively through a trial and error process until success or the timeout.
Failures primarily cost time.
Oh .. that make sense .. you almost gave me a heart attack with that 77 % number :-)
Oh I see. That explains why the fail rate may not be apparent on the surface. Thanks for explaining that.
This is an important detail to include in your initial post to avoid misleading and scaring people!
So nothing has changed compared to last year despite the price? The same amount of sats can be transferred with a 77% chance of success? Am I understanding it correct?
We've isolated the performance differences for Bitcoin denominated payments and improvements have been minimal, but positive.
Based on the results, the machine learning tooling (like Magma AI) that we've prepared to improve network topology is essential to move Lightning forward in terms of its payments capability.
It also means that altruistic behavior will not motivate network changes; the topology changes will require additional Bitcoin in the network and returns on that investment.
For a retard like me:
more big money is needed (means more centralization) and plebs running LN channels is nice but doesn't improve the success rate of payments or the network overall?
Think of it like a bunch of truck traffic jams throughout the city. At some point we need to build bigger highways to alleviate the congestion. More small roads won't necessarily help the situation and could make it worse.
Adding highways (bigger Bitcoin channels) is likely to help with distribution instead of centralization.
One thing to note is that the largest holders of Bitcoin are still individuals.
Thanks for clarification.
I understand and hope you are right that it will be beneficial for decentralization. I remain skeptical.
Huh, that’s cool that bitcoin’s ever-increasing purchasing power continually makes the lightning network more reliable. Makes perfect sense, I’d just never thought about it.
How do you guys see the network topology changing in the future? Continued node centralization and consolidation to fewer, larger channels?
We think it's cool too! It's like the network got a free Super Size upgrade ⚡
The metric we've shown is the *network average* payment reliability, which will not increase with a more centralized network.
We've prepared the Magma AI channel recommender, which provides optimizations for maximizing network payment reliability (for free) and optimizations for maximizing an individual node's payment reliability (for consideration).
The biggest win is a decentralized (or distributed) payment system.
More on Magma AI: https://amboss.tech/blog/magma-ai
nostr:nprofile1qqsyh28gd5ke0ztdeyehc0jsq6gcj0tnzatjlkql3dqamkja38fjmeqp3hucz what do you think ?
Brah.. how can Bitcoin network be more secure with lightning network?
Looks like the amount at which you have a 50% chance of success doubled from ~$200 to ~$400. Very cool!
Really only 77%? What happens if it fails, can you try again?
How do we shift the topology?
#asknostr
Good question!
Really? All LN txs are not done successfully? Another reason that I don't like LN😑
