I disagree with this. It assumes that etf based activity will translate to on chain activity.

The thing is that these custodians are centralised and will optimise to save on fees while of course marking up their profits.

It's not the number of nodes, nor the number of bitcoin you have that influences the network. It's the on chain activity. ETFs will be pre-bought and bulk bought.

A large transaction is nothing, many small transactions is everything. It doesn't matter what the big bitcoiner wants to do, just what the majority of "users" want to do.

This also means lightning users are also exempt for the most part too btw.

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Big transactions have more impact on the price. After a fork people look at price as the primary signal of which fork is dominant.

Why do big transactions have more impact? Do you mean big as in payload size? Like batch transactions, consolidations and coin joins?

Because big in sats doesn't affect the bottom line for miners, maybe for users who are eyeballing the network, but not for the rest of us, and not if the fork has a rule change with it.