Please check my math.
Discussion
Where I live paying just the interest component of the mortgage is more expensive than paying rent on a comparable house. Then add on top of that taxes and costs associated with owning a house and it comes out significantly worse.
You are gambling that house prices will raise faster than you are losing money in ownership and interest repayment costs.
That being said I still find value in owning a home as it gives you and your family stability which is worth a lot.
Yeah, your RE market is infamous.
That said, there are only homes for sale, in the area where I live. None for rent.
If you can't buy, you have to vacate the entire region. This is increasingly common, I think.
In many parts of the US we pay property tax. Over the course of the mortgage, you can easily pay 150k-300k in taxes. Then add on to it, interest on the loan, and you are underwater on the house's value. A 500k house has to be worth more than double by the time you sell to break even. Plus the property taxes follow the house value up and don't stop after the house is paid off. Taxes and interest can be a deal killer. The better investment is bitcoin in my book.
You're right about some places having property tax.
Germany effectively has very low property tax, but high income tax, so reducing housing costs long-term has more value than avoiding property tax. That's a more regional aspect.
You didn't specify the term (length) of the mortgage or the interest. This is important because it effects amortization rates. For example, if you take out that ammount for 30 years at 6% (common in the U.S. right now) you will make over $215k in payments (excluding taxes and insurance), but only have $50k in equity. If you sell your house, you end up with the same $50k as the bitcoin holder. Whether you come out ahead on the deal will depend on the rent paid by the hodlr, as well as local taxes and insurance.
The real error here is assuming Bitcoin will only 5x in 10 years. Hitting $250k by the end of next year is my base case for BItcoin. There are a number of positive headwinds that could push it much higher. In 10 years, I will be verry supprised if it's less than $1,000,000. Of course, I also be supprised if your house was still worth $300k.
(I did everythin in dollars becausse there is no Euro symbol on my keyboard)
Here's a mortgage calculator you can play with:
Let's say 4% for 30 years. 🤔
I'm assuming the house is a home and won't be sold.
Bitcoin 5x-ing is either terribly pessimistic or terribly optimistic, depending upon who you ask.
Bitcoin has put central banks on notice, and the Bitcoin market is one of the largest financial markets in the world, and there is now a massive paper market, so those are environmental changes to previous cycles.
The math seems OK to me, but someone arguing in favor of hyperbitcoinization might (1) argue against 'only' assuming 5x (2) wonder whether looking at a relatively short 10-year period makes sense (3) wonder whether the house will really 'stay the same' if we hyperbitcoinize (sweet word 🤩) or whether houses might go down in fiat terms while BTC goes up (4) related to point 3: wonder whether you will still be able to buy a house with a 100% mortgage and no down payment after we hyperbitcoinize. And the tax / freedom / privacy stuff already mentioned by others.
1) 5x is a lot, in a deflationary environment. You could assume more, but then you'd need fiat inflation, which might cause the house price to also rise.
2) Anything over 10 years is complete guessing.
3) Houses will continue to be scarce until the house-owning population declines (i.e. Boomers) and frees up real estate.
4) After hyperbitcoinization, most mortgages don't really make sense. At most, maybe rent-to-own plans.
If you say so - food for thought 💪