Nostr Web Client

On the stationary bike, talking to Claude AI. Dog at my feet. Life is good…

If you own Bitcoin.

The flip side is I’m worried for my generation - Gen X - who hasn’t paid attention to real inflation. Not 3% that’s on the news but the 6-7-8% (or more?) that makes it too expensive to eat out with your family. So I’m talking to Claude about how much BTC you need, assuming the power curve/power law holds, to retire at 65. I’m happy working longer, and, I know biology is undefeated, so 65 yr old me likey can’t work as much.

It’s not a huge amount of bitcoin to change a friend’s retirement, but the longer they wait the more they have to get. Claude thinks 200k is a magic level where interest in bitcoin will swell.

Obviously I’m preaching to the choir here, but running the numbers it’s (obviously) going to be harder to get .3 in 3 years than it is to get .3 today, let alone in 2030.

Finally, Google Search Trends over the past five years for bitcoin, gold, and silver:

Minus a bump after Trump’s election bitcoin searches are down. Gold and silver up over the same time, and with an inflection point the last few months for those two, and a stepper dive down for Bitcoin searches.

Back to sunrise photos 😀

#bitcoin #powerlaw #powercurve

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Discussion

Tracy 2mo ago

So how much BTC is Claude recommending?

Orange Dad 2mo ago

I’ll make a calculator, but it’ll take a while - definitely 2026. Sorry.

The problem with where I live is that it’s expensive, but until the kids are out of school I can’t move. The key is to move to cheaper place where 100k gets you what 150k gets you in a place like Chicago. My envy on nostr after a few weeks here is where people live to have an acreage.

I’m using three inflation models. We settled on an average of 3% as the base case - higher for the foreseeable future but from year 10-20 it does down. And yes, I know it’s essentially a shot in the dark after 3-5 years, but you have to do something.

I’m a bit obsessed with this project, but I’m committed to only working on it when I’m on the bike 😀 Gotta mine the fiat the rest of the day!

Check out this book. Fred is rich and can be an out of touch asshole, but he has great perspective at other times. He has a PhD in Math from Stanford. The math is compelling.

Zen<3lofi 2mo ago

it’s an extremely limited group of people in America that can benefit from investing. 🙁

Orange Dad 2mo ago

Very true