Block subsidy will be enough for a time. How much time depends on how valuable bitcoin is. And in your view the subsidy will be sufficient as long as it’s above 0.
This doesn’t address the case of at zero subsidy…nor does it address the mathematical fact that the exponential decay of bitcoin supply is far far far far faster than any economy can grow.
I think that is the beauty of the difficulty adjustment.
The fallacy in your (fiat-based) logic can be most easily seen in the conclusion of your second paragraph above 👆
I was stuck there too until very recently. Map it out again. This time from the perspective of PARABOLICALLY ACCELERATING DEflation.
Visually (and overly simplistically) It looks like a toroidal inversion of the state of flow.
You will know you are “there” when you say out loud….”WHAT THE FUCK?!??”
At least that’s what MY process/reaction was. 😉
Be well brotha 🧡🧬🙏🏻
I think you misunderstand the math here. Parabolic is very slowly growing compared to exponential as time increases.
Take any graphic calculator or app and plot y=x^2 (a prabola) and y=2^x (an exponential) and you’ll see one grows way way way way faster than the other.
The reality is that all exponential things eventually either go to zero (in the decreasing case) or stop being exponential (in the increasing case). Why? Because exponential growth eventually becomes so large we run out of physical things such wildly large numbers could represent…compared to exponential growth, even the number of atoms in the universe is small…
I totally agree that bitcoin value will grow a lot faster for a lot longer than most expect. But some fees will eventually be necessary as subsidy will long be insufficient for moving the chain forward before subsidy goes to zero.
And we have proof that people will pay for securing the network. The 2017 block size wars featured an attack on block space and fees went up to a very significant fraction of the subsidy. And ordinals did the same, albeit for less time.
Anyone arguing we need high fees now is missing the value of bitcoin. But arguing transaction fees will never be necessary I think is almost provably false.
Also prices do not all fall to the marginal cost of production, not all the way down. That's not how markets work. That's not how anyone makes choices.
I think Chris was specifically talking about the misinterpretation of “growth” on a fiat standard versus the productivity growth (faster deflation) ensured by 8 billion people competing to solve problems and provide value to each other on a bitcoin standard.
Growth as measured today is conflated and opposite to the above.
Indeed. Unleashing humanity on the problems we share through the property rights only a censorship resistant and decentralized money can provide will pay dividends seemingly impossible in our fiat way of thinking.
What if the exponential advancement in mining ships bring back mining to personnel level where every PC laptop will be able to mine #bitcoin like how TCP/IPrunning in the backgrounds.
In this time nobody will have to worry about fees or the security of the network
Transaction fees will be more than enough at that point where there is no more block subsidy. Bitcoin Average tx per block is already at 2Million SATs I would be surprised if there isn't way more demand for base layer TXs in 20 to 100 years and even if tx fees go to zero the Bitcoin difficulty will adjust to as low as possible for solo home miners who mine as a hobby.
