#Bitcoin price prediction: crab sideways until next Spring.
Rationale:
1. Bitcoin competes for attention in memespace. People’s surplus attention will be wrapped up in politics.
2. Inflation is hurting people’s pocket books. They don’t have surplus money to spend.
3. The Fed pump won’t get going immediately. It’ll take time for lowered rates to prompt reallocations.
4. Recent buyers and traders will be dumping before New Years to lock in their capital losses for 2024.
What am I missing?
All good points.
Stay humble and stack those sats.
nostr:note1m4mtq6gd5rmwrr0np4w8j2t0wxlmqzyh75vlk3d633ggs67ywhvqkaxlrn
black swan... there is a bunch of fixtures in the fiat bamboozlement that are creating dilemmas for the central bankers right now... they can't tank the stock market, they can't tank the bonds, but the two things are opposite each other, in the situation of a profligate (as in pretty much all major governments these days) expenditure... ultimately the government wastes way more money than the stock market does, but the government holds more sway over the banks because loss of confidence means people start looking for exits from the banking system
so, yeah, it's gonna be the usual... quiet until october and then chaos, and probably blow off peak
the reason?
because the banks are gonna choose the government, and treasury bills and bonds, which means the stock market is gonna tank, and then the stock market bois are going to buy bitcoin as a safe haven
#58k gang will finally be disbanded after this point
Even jimbo is falling for recency bias lollll
What you are missing is that this bull is not gonna be driven by retail. It will be driven by pension funds, small nation states, and companies that will need a better return once rates drop.
You’re off Jimbo
How so?
1-3-4 could all have applied to the last bull too. We started pumping right around the 2020 election
Institutional buyers are in play now with the etf so 2 has much less of an affect on price
Yeah, I guess retail might not have the same impact
With all that being said… who tf knows lol
Right right. This cycle has already been strange. 2021 got cut short. Everyone thought $100k was a given—then China banned mining (again) and FTX imploded. Then 2024 matched ATH a year ahead of schedule.
So yeah, hard to make predictions. Nonetheless, my gut says there are too many headwinds to significantly break the old ATH top, until the election is behind us and the Fed lets off the brakes.
I’m not wedded to this position. Happy to update as new info becomes available.
Nation states coming in
Dollar strength due to jittery foreigners dumping out of their own currencies and into $.
