as far as they say here it is just a timing assumption
and amount correlation
since the amount of Bitcoin going into the swap is almost exactly the relative amount of monero that hits the CEX
Discussion
This is what im trying to get at. That's spurious as fuck.
well
I'm not a lawyer so I'll defer to your expertise
but if you can show 5 different times coins move from an address to a know swap address
and moments later an equivalent amount of monero comes to the exchange.
as a jury member I'd believe it wasn't circumstantial 🤷
If it were the exact same amount that'd be one thing, but also juries are stupid but also many judges are also stupid, but timing is bad evidence.
oh but this isn't trial evidence
this doc is just the FBI trying to get a arrest warrant,
so I expect that changes their perceived burden of evidence?
I dont know specifics about criminal burden of proof but perhaps its enough probable cause for a warrant. At the end of the day, I'd want to show 1,000 other transactions happening at the same time in the approximately same amount. I'd probably have to subpoena the CEX for all monero transactions incoming and outgoing around that same time period and be like "see" why not imprison all of these people.
apparently the FBI felt like it was convincing...
STN also seems to feel that way.