This is what im trying to get at. That's spurious as fuck.

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If you're in a lawsuit and a judge accepts as evidence that you received illicit funds because a criminal sent funds ~around about~ the same amount at 1pm and around 1:01pm you received funds ~around about~ that same amount, that criminal must be you, you might as well just give up and go to prison. This is fucked.

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well

I'm not a lawyer so I'll defer to your expertise

but if you can show 5 different times coins move from an address to a know swap address

and moments later an equivalent amount of monero comes to the exchange.

as a jury member I'd believe it wasn't circumstantial 🤷

If it were the exact same amount that'd be one thing, but also juries are stupid but also many judges are also stupid, but timing is bad evidence.

oh but this isn't trial evidence

this doc is just the FBI trying to get a arrest warrant,

so I expect that changes their perceived burden of evidence?

I dont know specifics about criminal burden of proof but perhaps its enough probable cause for a warrant. At the end of the day, I'd want to show 1,000 other transactions happening at the same time in the approximately same amount. I'd probably have to subpoena the CEX for all monero transactions incoming and outgoing around that same time period and be like "see" why not imprison all of these people.

apparently the FBI felt like it was convincing...

STN also seems to feel that way.