I’d say the average is ~5 years from first commits to wide-spread adoption. Git was introduced in 2005, and didn’t really break out in a big way until 2010-2012. Linux was early 90s, and didn’t really break out until the dot-com era. First web browser, HTTP and HTML was 1990. First real breakout was about 1995.
So if you’re seeing exponential adoption curves <5 years into a new protocol and/or new open source technology, you’re doing pretty great!
Things move much quicker nowadays than they did 20 or 30 years ago
Although, Bitcoin is over 10 years old now, and is still arguably in its incubation phase. Which is fine. Slow and steady can be the path to resiliencey.
Bittorrent is another one. Came out around 2000 and didn't see indices till around 2005
Thank me later
Nostr will start scaling up VERY quickly when the major female porn stars start creating accounts (when they're kicked off Twitter/Insta for the umpteenth time). Then their tens/hundreds of thousands of followers will move over. Then those followers will start seeing other uses and get their friends to join…
The adult industry really needs Nostr - so this will happen. It's just a question of when.
Thank me later
Thank me later
Pura vida 🤙
Thank me later
Don’t forget nostr was actually introduced in 2020, so we’re almost 3 years post first commits
Thank me later
Typical S-Curve adoptions cycles can differ in length but 10% of the early adopters come in within the first 5-10 years and 90% of users come in preceding years for most nascent technology.
Thanks Mike! Great perspective.
Tech adoption curves are increasingly accelerating
Not bad for a new protocol
HODL
