A number of people have asked me if I agree with the 90-day hyperinflation scenario.
My answer is no.
Discussion
What do you think it would take for a chart like this too play out?
I don't think it'll happen in 90 days. Just curious if you see this happening *ever*?
That still happens in emerging markets today. It's basically happening to Argentina for example.
Weimar had liabilities denominated in a currency it can't print, much like an emerging market today.
There are scenarios where it can happen to the United States, but it takes a *lot* of sociopolitical breakdown for it to happen.
hyperinflation is not required for a million dollar coin
a country deciding to accept it for oil for example would be more than enough
or a large country deciding to accept it as legal tender
etc.
Balaji basically on Twitter said he’s just doing this to raise the alarm, and that it probably is not happening
I think they used to call that crying wolf. It used to be a bad thing. If you have nothing new to add, be quiet.
What are you talking about?
What you said Balaji said. He is crying wolf, or being the boy who cried wolf. It is a kind a fable.
Oh I gotcha. Could be interpreted like that. I’m not personally taking it that way. I think he’s just trying to help open peoples’ eyes
That's kind of what he/they wants you to think though. Those are the ones that bother you when you have a fish on the line. They don't win and you can't win, which is a win to them. Just get a second opinion.
My thesis is closer to ARK invest’s work. I am just staying humble, stacking, and hodling. I don’t really care what Balaji is saying or bets he’s making.
Respectfully disagree. I think awareness is important. It’s a solid attention grabber from him
I wish more people caught this
😂
true
Reminds me of 10th man rule. Maybe he just had to be the one to disagree... 🤔
The effect of the bet is that its bringing awareness to the root cause problems.
But that will backfire because it's going to make Balaji look foolish
If everyone believed it in, it would be less likely
Yes, but buying now and in 90 days at 100k, is also fine by me. Remember, halving in approx. 1 year. Just frontrunning it.
90-days is more likely what it will take for businesses and firms who’ve been on the fence about Bitcoin to establish and define processes and procedures for taking Bitcoin into corporate account, and perhaps even self-custody.
The incentive to have 1-3 months of expenses outside the banking system - in an asset that allows for global payments w/o interference - is a compelling and real incentive. Dare I say, an existential one.
I think he has a different bet.
What price would bit coin have to reach for his bitcoin holdings to be up more than 1 million, thus meaning that anything higher is a win for him even if he loses the bet?
And given his following, his bet will likely act as a catalyst that may light the fire.
Just a thought.