Cant they arrest the largest relays too?

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yeah, but autopilot/outbox model fixes this. they can't arrest everyone running a nostr server. well they could try I guess, but then people would just start running them as tor hidden services

What is your estimate about TOR ...how likely is it that they will shut it down at some point? Can it actually be shut down or is TOR decentralized tech that survives those attacks?

Btw. same applies for Bitcoin and lightning. One foot already in jail.