That's ok
If you're patient, you've got your bases covered & can be pleasantly surprised with what unfolds.
To be clear, the SuPerCycLe is not going to be that exciting for most people.
Discussion
So you think we just turn into the S&P and slow grind to Valhalla? Dunno we nuked 30% in a month I don’t think we’re out on easy street yet. More pain ahead for the over leveraged and over allocated.
No I think Bitcoin still has parabolic price discovery in store for 2026.
I think the bear markets up until this point have been driven by OGs dumping their bags onto retail. I think they started to do this in October which resulted in the 30% dump. As a net result institutions now have more bitcoin. I think institutions are using the widespread belief in these 4 year price cycles as a way to build even bigger positions.
As Saylor says, Bitcoin's killer app is digital credit. Institutions are going to be acquiring bitcoin capital & selling bitcoin backed credit. This is highly profitable in fiat terms & doesn't require bitcoin to be sold. The profit is in the balance sheet as unrealised (paper) gains but still hits the P&L.
Bitcoiners are currently selling their sats to intuitions & OG whales are currently relinquishing control of the price. It's not something I want or celebrate, it's just what I see happening. I don't want plebs selling more sats than they need to at a big discount.
🟢🟢🟢🟢 is still in play.
30 something percent dump v fiat
51% crash v gold
We are getting close to 2017 btc/gold peak prices
And when the sound money guys roll over their profits in 27/28, we really go green. Or we really go towards the end of fiat.
Sound money guys know that fiat is shit.
They've been struggling but right for 50 years. I imagine they'll want to make their lives better but I don't see them cashing it all in for fiat.
I see it playing out differently but we shall see. I think we are seeing a relief rally now after a big drop. Bulls give a push 98-108 before selling continues and price takes another nosedive. We crack MSTR cost basis and selling continues, fear goes up again and then we get some support in the low 70s high 60s where we get another rally slash chop before one last drop where finally have consolidation before the next bull cycle can begin.
Not all institutions are long only players they can make profits of bitcoin going down not just up. They will go with the trend. Right now it’s down and it will take a lot of demand to overcome the pressure.