wow great question

I don't know of anyone who actually gets it right. even myself.

the fundamental problem is that we CAN'T have accurate pricing on a fiat standard.

so how can "value" be measured?

I rail against this because Bitcoin maxis like nostr:nprofile1qqsxew647syatr8wexg7avd54grhjv086pudvjw6vesjss5mkeakjrqpzdmhxw309ucnydewxqhrqt338g6rsd3eqyt8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yt33xvcnytndv4jxjcgppemhxue69uhkummnw3ezuct5x74xjf are hypocritical, without seeming to realize it

on one hand, its their mission to wake up the world from the fiat nightmare

otoh they love to whip out a fiat chart when it suits their argument.

as if it measured anything more than fiat speculation by Cantillionaires...

for all of us

the best approach is to keep learning

but the name of the game is *critical thinking skills*

all this maxi shit is just noise.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

Well, the problem is that virtually all Bitcoin transactions are buying and selling it for fiat currencies. It’s worth X dollars because that’s virtually all it’s exchanged for now.

If and when Bitcoin is actually used as a medium of exchange, where the transactions become overwhelming in goods and services, it’ll be priced in those goods and services, and those goods and services will be priced in Bitcoin. It’ll stop being about number-go-up and more about things like food-costs-go-down (relative to Bitcoin), or housing, healthcare, and education costs go down (relative to Bitcoin).

makes sense to me ❤️

Finally someone with some basic common sense. 💁‍♂️

nostr:nprofile1qyw8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytfsxyh8jcttd95x7mnwv5hxxmmdqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnhd9hx2qpqlxzaxzge0jq9u9cecucctdt5lslwgp7hcxmp2l0wn8r2ecjenwas6czrap is just coping because for some reason can't comprehend transitional periods, thinks in low timeframes (a side effect of fiat thinking) & doesn't understand that this is happening:

All value is relative. I see you use the word "speculative" derrogatory, but this is the essence of the market - everyone perceives prices differently.

Buying and holding for the purpose of having more fiat (current MoE) in the future is speculation. Nothing wrong with this practice.

OGs know to stack sats - fiat price doesn't mather as it will only go up, unless ofc something monumental disrupts the current order.

there's nothing wrong with pure speculation

as you say

but theres a problem when we conflate *perceived value

with value

That's the poimt - there's no such thing as absolute value. It's all relative/perceived.

A (free) market to establish prices works only because you have many who price a given good at the margin, not because *everyone* agrees this price reflects its value. Some (or many, who knows) probably still wait for Bitcoin to fall to sub 40$k while others think it's cheap at a hundred.

i completely agree with that.

but let me ask what happens in a highly inflationary environment when Cantillionaires get a shitton of new money?

do you agree Nvidia is accurately valued?

what about Tesla?

the new money seeks the highest-perceived returns. it creates an overbought condition over the entire upper layer of the economy. eventually that new money decide to exit and crashes the market.

in such a situation people arent aware the price they see in the chart

isnt the "honest price" or real social utility of the item.

its because a bunch of degen gamblers think itll go higher.

i think not understanding that is a problem.

you can call it the free market functioning if you like,

and you're not technically wrong.

but prices are fucked on a fiat standard.

There's no accurate price/value, only market price. I see your point though - the currencies are worthless essentially.

How do you know you are not already in a highly inflational environment? Hyperinflation on a fiat standard is more common than some might think.

I do think we are already in a highly inflationary environment.

it's a large part of why the prices are "distorted" by gambling.

when prices no longer represent the collectively perceived utility of the thing

but instead show the expectation the thing can be flipped for more purchasing power later that a tulip mania.

is the price "wrong?"

no.

but it doesn't mean what most people think it means.

"when prices no longer represent the collectively perceived utility of the thing

but instead show the expectation the thing can be flipped for more purchasing power later..."

Textbook speculation. This is part of the utility of investable goods and a feature of every scarce resource.

it is PART of it, yes.

but when most of the money in a commodity is there for speculation

its a speculative bubble and prices are distorted.

its another problem with a fiat standard.