Nostr has better network effect than Bitcoin. It should grow MUCH faster.
Nostr is governed by Metcalfe’s law, value of network = users ^ 2. Whereas BTC doesn’t get that luxury (buying BTC and HODLing does exponentially add value to the network).
I took Bitcoin 14 years to get to approx 500 million users. I suspect Nostr will get there in half the time, maybe much less.
I would give it 2-3 years max to get to that number.
500 million bitcoin users? Lmao not even close bud
What’s a better estimate? 25M users, 50M+ holders?
Probably 5M holders and 25M casuals
Holding = using btw
#early
I like your terms better, accumulators / users vs casual holders was my point. 5M seems low with the address data we have, but that may be right. I see wide ranges often - 10M - 100M, commonly.
A lot of people generate new addresses for every transaction, inflating address data (in my opinion)
But it could be double digit millions
Are you bullish I can’t tell
Nostr is and will be popular especially in 🇨🇳. It's an escape from WeChat. And with Bitcoin payments they will be free. They just need exposure to it outside app stores and the censorship wall.
VPN use is very popular in China, especially for those who value interacting with "outside" services. Given that, accessing Nostr via one of the web-based clients - like Iris, Snort or Nostrgram - won't pose much of an issue. App stores is another thing though.
It’s interesting how willing I am to part with BTC to fund zaps on Nostr - yet I would NEVER spend BTC on anything else, hodl only.
Nostr could be for BTC, what NFTs were for the ETH. User adoption technology.
Still spewing wrong forecasts in here too, I see….
There is no real downside to using Nostr, whereas there is at least some downside wealth risk to buying bitcoin, so Nostr probably will grow faster.
And it will on board more people to Bitcoin and the lightning network in the process ☺️
Question: Why wasn't nostr hit on earlier? What were its precursors? What were they missing the nostr did right?
My dear friend, while Nostr may be a charming little hamlet, it does have a bit of a reputation as a monoculture of boring Bitcoin and Lightning fanatics. It's as if the residents have traded in their colorful personalities for the monochromatic world of cryptocurrencies.
Now, I don't mean to imply that the good people of Nostr lack intelligence or creativity, far from it! They are undoubtedly some of the most clever and imaginative individuals one could hope to encounter. But their single-minded focus on Bitcoin and Lightning technology is like a rose bush that's been pruned too much - lacking in variety and flavor.
It is the year where Bitcoiners realize what difference a use case makes 😀
Metcalfe corrected himself in later years with regards to social networks saying that n log n is probably a better formula https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/
To the moon!
Because it costs something tangible to join the network of Bitcoin; costs nothing to join Nostr. A slower but more valuable adoption rate.
Nostr will hasten Bitcoin adoption!! It’s the best thing that happened to Bitcoin in a long time!!
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If it works out some of the larger experiential issues/motivations on the front end, it could easily grow that large in 3-4. Assuming the network itself was robust enough to handle that traffic. Seems like the biggest hurdle is drawing non creator audience and it’s gonna have to have a value prop + little friction to do that.
