I might be delusional, but I don't believe in four-year cycles. Not only do I think there won't be cycles in the future — I don't think there were real cycles in the past either. That might sound surprising at first, so let me explain.
In 2013, Bitcoin's price surged dramatically, then crashed hard in 2014. In 2017, it surged again, then crashed in 2018. Again, in 2021 it spiked, then plunged in 2022. At first glance, this does look exactly like the four-year cycles. But let's take a closer look!
The events of 2013/2014 were tied to the MtGox exchange. Back then, MtGox was the largest Bitcoin exchange and it managed to lose 650,000 bitcoins. An event of that scale obviously shook the entire sector and brought about a long crypto winter.
The 2017/2018 period was the era of the block size war. A key figure was Roger Ver, aka Bitcoin Jesus. Depending on the estimate, he may have controlled around 300,000 bitcoins when he pushed for the Bitcoin Cash fork — and basically burned all of it. That too caused massive market turmoil, ending in another crypto winter.
The 2021/2022 period was the time of the FTX exchange. Sam Bankman-Fried, its CEO, didn't believe in Bitcoin — he often criticized it as obsolete. More importantly, he sold off all the bitcoins belonging to FTX's customers in order to suppress the price. Sources vary, but it was roughly 100,000 bitcoins. Yet again, a perfect recipe for a crypto winter.
The point is: if a major player with hundreds of thousands of bitcoins loses their mind and goes full retard, they can tank the entire industry for years. And what's crucial: they destroy themselves in the process. These were isolated cases — MtGox, Roger Ver, Sam Bankman-Fried — all of them went down for good. They won't come back every four years to repeat what they did before. It's pure coincidence that these events happened roughly four years apart. If you only look at the price chart, it looks like the four-year cycles. Which conveniently fits the narrative people already have, because of the block reward halving every four years.
So that's the past. But what about the future? Of course, it's possible that new players with hundreds of thousands of bitcoins will go crazy again. It can happen in 2026 and 2030 — perfectly fitting the four-year cycle narrative. But hopefully, over time the market will mature. Bigger players will act more responsibly — it's their own interest, and the best interest of the entire industry.
