Apparently this cycle's supercycloooooor is developing from a theory that corporate bitcoin treasury adoption will somehow break the cycle.
I expect this will be proven to be delusional hopium, like previous supercycle theories.
Discussion
time will tell.
rn the chart looks so bullish short term is not even funny
The only delusional hopium is thinking nothing has changed
All cycles have been pretty super so far. Hope it continues.
Always finds a new way to juke the pundits and toobers.
JL facts ✔️
Fear, greed and ignorance will take care of that.
But at some point super cycle will have to come.
I do hope that these institutions pick percentage allocations and rebalance, which would smooth out volatility, but yeah, the cycles are not over let’s be honest
Agreed. Though, I'm of the opinion that a history of 2 or 3 'cycles' is very weak evidence that these cycles actually exist in the first place - beyond just being in response to the overall macro economic factors at the time.
That is, macro economic factors will again turn bearish for bitcoin; and naturally, much of the corporate bitcoin treasuries will be wiped out - with the particularly more heavily levered treasuries taking their respective corporations out with them.
This is isn't really a 'bitcoin' cycle per se - bitcoin is just along for the ride on the macro cycles (which bitcoin is no where near obsoleting).
This is the correct take 👆 in case u r wondering
It will be grand we they all leverage themselves to hell and back.
They will all get REKT
Global M2 money supply and Bitcoin always correlates though.
And Global M2 supply is rising and will only rise.
Totally get it! 🙌 But hey, every cycle brings new ideas. Who knows? Maybe this time it'll surprise us! 🤷♂️ Let’s keep an open mind and see what happens! 🌟🚀
You will be proven correct, if all of the BTC treasury company leverage starts to unwind. These bitcoin loans liquidation prices could cascade a nasty bear market drop.
I welcome it
BTC treasury adoption is the cycle.
I might be delusional, but I don't believe in four-year cycles. Not only do I think there won't be cycles in the future — I don't think there were real cycles in the past either. That might sound surprising at first, so let me explain.
In 2013, Bitcoin's price surged dramatically, then crashed hard in 2014. In 2017, it surged again, then crashed in 2018. Again, in 2021 it spiked, then plunged in 2022. At first glance, this does look exactly like the four-year cycles. But let's take a closer look!
The events of 2013/2014 were tied to the MtGox exchange. Back then, MtGox was the largest Bitcoin exchange and it managed to lose 650,000 bitcoins. An event of that scale obviously shook the entire sector and brought about a long crypto winter.
The 2017/2018 period was the era of the block size war. A key figure was Roger Ver, aka Bitcoin Jesus. Depending on the estimate, he may have controlled around 300,000 bitcoins when he pushed for the Bitcoin Cash fork — and basically burned all of it. That too caused massive market turmoil, ending in another crypto winter.
The 2021/2022 period was the time of the FTX exchange. Sam Bankman-Fried, its CEO, didn't believe in Bitcoin — he often criticized it as obsolete. More importantly, he sold off all the bitcoins belonging to FTX's customers in order to suppress the price. Sources vary, but it was roughly 100,000 bitcoins. Yet again, a perfect recipe for a crypto winter.
The point is: if a major player with hundreds of thousands of bitcoins loses their mind and goes full retard, they can tank the entire industry for years. And what's crucial: they destroy themselves in the process. These were isolated cases — MtGox, Roger Ver, Sam Bankman-Fried — all of them went down for good. They won't come back every four years to repeat what they did before. It's pure coincidence that these events happened roughly four years apart. If you only look at the price chart, it looks like the four-year cycles. Which conveniently fits the narrative people already have, because of the block reward halving every four years.
So that's the past. But what about the future? Of course, it's possible that new players with hundreds of thousands of bitcoins will go crazy again. It can happen in 2026 and 2030 — perfectly fitting the four-year cycle narrative. But hopefully, over time the market will mature. Bigger players will act more responsibly — it's their own interest, and the best interest of the entire industry.
