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The thing is, I think the world would be a much better place if the European Union was strategically independent, and fully capable of defending itself and setting its own foreign policy, independent of the United States. I think having a strategic competitor to the United States that shares liberal democratic values would be far superior to the current arrangement. I would literally sleep better at night.

Here’s the problem: despite Macron’s dream of pursuing this strategic autonomy, they’re not doing any of the things that’s would be necessary to make this a reality. To the contrary, Macron literally just went to China and called for deeper integration between the EU and China. France and Germany are in the advanced stages of exporting the manufacturing of their electric vehicle manufacturing to China! This is insane.

Macron is actually right to be pissed off at the US for its protectionist economic policy, stemming from the new industrial policies coming out of the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. The economic populism in these bills, should have been primarily aimed at China, and should have excluded critical allies like the EU — Only Mexico and Canada were spared due to their free trade agreement with the US. This was bad fucking policy by Congress. It punched the Europeans in the eye, economically for no good reason. But Americans are feeling very economically isolationist these day. So there’s a lot of idiocy going around on both sides of the Atlantic.

But this highlights another absurdity about the EU’s engagement with the US right now. Instead of running to China asking for deeper integration, because the US just snubbed them, they should be trying to sell the American public on how it would benefit *them* to cooperate with the EU on energy and supply chains. Not trying to convince Xi Jinping.

Sure, the US have become fickle assholes on trade policy. But it’s certainly worth the damned investment to push back on this. What the hell are we doing, here? This is serious shit.

I still have optimism that there will be a reversal of course here. But it’s going to come when enough of the North American and European public becomes sufficiently terrified through some external crisis. The real question is, how much damage will have been done when that happens?

Lyn Alden 2y ago

I agree it would be good for Europe to be more independent. And they're right to be angered at US policy.

But by not having a big tech ecosystem, and by not managing their energy security well (thus putting their industrial ecosystem at risk), they're not doing themselves any favors. And I still contend that their united monetary policy without uniting fiscal policy is a near-certain recipe for long-term disorder.

China is now the largest trading partner in the world and has the largest industrial base in the world, and does a ton of foreign investment, so I see why some European leaders want to maintain good ties there and even favor them over the US in some aspects. But without tech or energy abundance, Europe is the weak pole of the US/Euro/China multi-polar power structure.

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Discussion

Moss 2y ago

I can't agree more. Before the Russia-Ukraine War, Germany's industrial manufacturing capacity and its products in foreign trade were very competitive. But now that the weather-heat pipes have been cut off, Germany can't use cheap energy to make things, and their manufacturing will be uncompetitive. German industrial manufacturing and production will affect the whole European economy, now Germany is also in a difficult choice, a large number of companies are moving out of Europe, Europe will be in trouble for a long time, until the end of the war, probably will not change

Mike Brock 2y ago

Yeah. Europe has a regulate-first approach to technology, which is insane. And their labor policies remove all dynamism from their workforce.

simo 2y ago

I am slowly coming around to some aspects of the labor policies... although just as many are bonkers. They also vary widely between countries, no one-size-fits-all.

Labor law hacks like food delivery non-employee self-employed "partners" seem to be just as effective in Europe as they are in the US, with similar debates taking place around the topic.

That the biggest general problem with the European labor policies is their inflexibility and staunch resistance to change. "This is the way it has always been" is poison for startups that want to change the structure of how work gets done, offer non-traditional benefits, more vacation, more pay, equity compensation etc.

Mysth 2y ago

USA strengths: military, high end tech, reserve money, importing talent from all over the world.

China strengths: industry, low end tech, manpower, social cohesion*

*enforced through an authoritarian regime.

Europe’s strentghs: designer clothes and handbags, tourism, bureaucracy and exporting talent abroad.

Once a beacon of innovation, a champion for human rights and a model of cohabitation between more than 20 countries speaking mostly different languages and having different cultures, Europe’s ideals have now dissolved under elected and unelected officials rather “doubtful” (to not say criminal) policies over the past 30 years.

Countries like Germany are dismantling its last nuclear reactors during an energy crunch, France is not building new ones, there are few natural resources in the continent, the population is getting older and ever more split between have and have-nots, and a lot of its “jewels” have been and are still being sold to foreign entities.

Protests are erupting regularly in every other country, but no credible solution is offered from current officials nor their opposition. What is keeping Europe running is both the crab bucket mentality of its leaders, preferring to slowly go down together (while still being at the top of the bucket, though) and the fact that a country willing to break out of the EU today would now be ostracized by the whole world.

While I’m not bullish on the US and I wouldn’t like to see a world led by a China/Russia/BRICS coalition, the one thing I can guarantee is to expect nothing from Europe but disappointment.

Mysth 2y ago

USA strengths: military, high end tech, reserve money, importing talent from all over the world.

China strengths: industry, low end tech, manpower, social cohesion*

*enforced through an authoritarian regime.

Europe’s strentghs: designer clothes and handbags, tourism, bureaucracy and exporting talent abroad.

While I’m not bullish on the US and I wouldn’t like to see a world led by a China/Russia/BRICS coalition, the one thing I can guarantee is to expect nothing from Europe but disappointment.

fblauer 2y ago

I don't see why a big tech ecosystem is as important anymore. Seems to me that tech like blockchain, AI , biotech etc. are becoming more opensource and global. Will proprietary/geography based tech continue to be as important in the future?

Tir_na_n'Og 2y ago

This a pretty much the kernel of the dilemma that has always faced Europe. A belligerent streak without the fundamental foundation. I'm watching to see what new EU entrants could do to rock the boat in terms of provoking change and influencing the swing if the pendulum. Although the Franco Teutonic anchor unlikely to change.