AI is certainly going to displace some jobs, but from where we stand right now it's only going to impact lower skilled jobs for the forseeable future.

Whenever I try to use AI to help me write code or do research, it's really good at doing basic stuff that has likely been done by many humans in the past. But whenever I try to do something novel, I run into a brick wall.

This seems sensible to me, as once you veer outside the scope of an AI's set of training data, it won't be able to "predict" what the answer to a query should be.

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A forcing function.

That is also my impression

That's bc AI is a misleading label.

Novelty = intelligent đź§ 

wait4IT*/*ya o_0idk***** oP'O'

this is certainly true with AI generated images. you can find novelty but it’s very hard to have control without a lot of preparatory input from the persons which requires skill

True statement I mostly use it to look up random facts that I don't want to search myself. Its handy at writing some Powershell code but I have had to fix all the more complicated requests.

I’m somewhere between Terminator SkyNet and AI can’t process an invoice correctly.

In my experience, AI excels at handling predictable tasks, though it struggles with the unpredictable ones.

I predict they are going to get better at coding thanks to longer context windows and inventions like GRPO which makes them learn by themselves by running the code and checking the results of the code.

They will be master mathematician and very good coder but in other areas they suck because there is no self verification and correction of knowledge in other areas. I am trying to be one of the sources for better wisdom with my leaderboard and carefully curated LLMs.

sure. but when we realize that most jobs are lower skill, it's doubly-disruptive.

because an enormous number of jobs are displaced and we realize how many people are low-skill.

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AI is going to 10x existing 10x devs

It really depends on what you mean by AI. If by AI you mean the standard LLMs everybody uses day to day then you’re probably right for a while.

But there’s more to AI than just the chat interfaces we’re used to. For example DeepMind published some research on how they trained a system that leveraged LLMs in a unique way and found it was capable of solving novel math and computer science problems [1].

DeepMind also trained AlphaGo which famously showed creativity in its game against Lee Se Dol that puzzled experts who initially thought it was a blunder.

Don’t forget that just 3 years ago everyone was debating whether a machine could pass the Turing test and today nobody even thinks about that anymore.

1. https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/funsearch-making-new-discoveries-in-mathematical-sciences-using-large-language-models/

Have you tried Grok 3? For me it's been a big difference from other ai's. To think it's only been a few years since the AI trend started.

"for the forseeable future" ? you think AI in 20 years will look like today and only displace low skilled jobs? i would bet against that.