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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 9mo ago

I continually over-estimate bitcoin in the short term and under-estimate bitcoin in the long term.

I have a big enough stack now that I can afford to be wrong with future bitcoin buys. From now on, I’m gonna be a buy the dip buyer instead of a DCA’er.

I’ve done very well with DCA since 2019 thx to Plan B’s model, which I no longer see as likely to be accurate in the future…but I can afford the risk of not adding 10-20% to my stack. I desperately want a cheaper bitcoin so I can grow my stack in meaningful percentages.

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Zach⚡️ 9mo ago

It's very simple to not buy into euphoria and instead go heavy into fear.

Very very simple. But not easy.

But I'm coming to the same conclusion, and I think many others are as well, which is why drawdowns have been dampened.

c2
One 9mo ago

Man I had the exact same thought last week. Coincidentally someone posted on X that bitcoin is simple to snipe, just buy when price is between 200 day SMA and 200 week SMA, with bigger buys closer to 200 week. Haven't done the math, but seems like it might be a good strategy.

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Houndsfield's Unit 9mo ago

Isn't that just the old market timing vs DCA argument? Tortoise vs the hare? And you are assuming you'll be able to catch the hare when it's taking a breather. Why not a bit of both?

Your stack may be growing slower and slower as NGU, but at least you are guaranteed it's growing vs hoping to catch the pullback.

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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 9mo ago

I’m willing to gamble and try my hand at market timing. This is what one can do when one is risking only a small portion of their accumulation potential.

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OgFOMK ArTS 9mo ago

#Winning