4 year cycle looking dead as a doornail.
#Bitcoin
Discussion
It’s been dead since institutional adoption. We are no longer at the whim of whales or plebs taking profits at the tops. Q2 2026 will be the real bull market. Marriage of Fed and Treasury.
I think core may of killed this bull run sadly
What bull run?
We are post halving.
Record ETF inflow.
Record Bitcoin treasury accumulation.
Favourable US legislation and executive orders.
Insiders filling their bags.
And we have seen fuck all price action…
Blaming core? 😂
That's all US based financial instrument stuff, and what they're really doing is more likely to be enabling paper bitcoin. Since bitcoiners produce practically 0% of the global supply of goods and services the vast majority of people are (sadly) better off with paper bitcoin because there's no offramp risk.
Node software is no indicator of price.
If changes to mempool config defaults can impact price in this way then you may as well go back to fiat.
I'd say the real reason is that bitcoin is acting as a risk-on US financial asset and the world is rapidly losing all confidence in the US.
"Yo, fr fr! If Bitcoin's just a risk-on play now, what’s the point of holding? 🤔💸 Are we just riding this wave until the next big crash, or is there a plan to get back to our roots? #HODL #BTC"
Anyone who tells you we are in a bull cycle is lying.
2021 top of 69k to today’s price of 106k is absolutely pitiful. Trash.
Real men measure from cycle top to cycle top OR previous cycle top to current price.
2024 top to today (~306 days) = a price decrease of ~$2,000
Way too much copium and hopium…
Wake me up at $250,000 😴
Well man that’s like huh your opinion eh…
It’s not an opinion. It’s fact.
If you apply man math, strong math, it clearly shows we have had fuck all price action since 2021.
If you use girl math and measure from the absolute bottom (post FTX blow up) that’s a different story.
Most people (especially retail) buy the tops so it’s objectively honest to measure from tops.
2013 - 2017 ($1,000 to $20,000) 20x
2017 - 2021 ($20,000 to $69,000) 3.5x
2021 - NOW ($69,000 to $110,000) 1.6x
2024 - NOW ($108,600 to $110,000) ~0x
What math are you applying anon?
I think the price action is satisfying. Seeing bitcoin only through its fiat price is kinda missing the point. It’s so much more. Getting richer is merely a side effect. I like the freedom and censorship resistance. I see price merely as a sign of adoption. And I believe it will keep increasing. It’s already done so much. We must focus on the node war that’s more of a priority right now. Your post sounded kinda bitter. It could fall back to 58k for all I care I would still keep earning it, mining it and buying stuff with it.
Bitcoin price is everything.
Because Bitcoin is money.
Because Bitcoin is a store of value.
The only reason people adopt Bitcoin is because it *should* outpace inflation and make you financially free *aka wealthy*.
Dropping to 58k would be horrendous. That means the *greatest* money and store of value of all time has been decimated by inflation over the past 5 years.
Getting rich is what people are here for.
To buy a home.
To retire early.
To afford quality food and wonderful experiences.
To have more than you need today to afford tomorrow.
Not being concerned with price when Bitcoin is *money* comes off as very holier than now and copium / hopium fueled.
Bitcoin is *money*.
Bitcoin is NOT a transcendental way of being or a personality type.
Would you say that previous significant drawdowns were horrendous? Or only if it happened now, since it would not have outpaced inflation?
More so if it happened now.
For the Bitcoin price to have hit 69k in 2021 and 4 plus years later it drops to 58k means that it has been decimated by inflation.
Not everyone buys the dips. Most retail folks FOMO into tops.
If you DCA like a good pleb (<1% of Bitcoiners) you would have done ok the last 4 years :)
But the stats don’t lie:
2013 - 2017 (~20x)
2017 - 2021 (~3.5x)
2021 - 2025 (~1.6x)
Note: this is applying man math, strong math…cycle top to cycle top OR cycle top to current price.
Dropping to 58k from 110k when the last cycle top was 69k is fucking disastrous! Especially with record ETF, Bitcoin treasury and whale accumulation inflows.
Imagine if there was no Bitcoin treasury companies, whales or ETFs! The price would be around 33k! 😂
Stay humble and stack sats for 12 years (2.5 cycles).
well, I don’t think we will get lucky enough for sats that cheap again anyway lol
Btw I just looked it up out of curiosity. The 1 year ago from today return is 60%. Not bad, seems like for anyone who’s DCAing it’s great. I haven’t done the math, but it feels like it’s working for my savings at least.
What do you suggest then ?
Stay humble and stack sats for 12 years (2.5 cycles).
Don’t tell people they will retire their bloodline in a single cycle (4 years).
Stop telling people Bitcoin has a 50-60% CAGR (this is a bald face lie when you omit the early years of $1 - $20,000 growth).
Stop telling people we are in a bull run.
Start applying man math, strong math to TA.
Stay humble and stack sats for 12 years (2.5 cycles)!
:)
RIP
But we haven't dropped 70%.....yet
From the normies POV, #Bitcoin took 4 years to not even achieve 2x gains.
The "dream" is dead to everyone who casually checks in on the Bitcoin trade.