I've had to update this Bitcoin adoption progress chart because reality is happening faster than estimated.
Here are a few more predictions. Enjoy!
SoV = Store of Value
MoE = Medium of Exchange
UoA= Unit of Account
Sorry Nostr IKYK, but some people still ask ;-)
So you're predicting million dollar bitcoin by 2030?
Gold parity would not be 75% adoption. More like 25%. Also the store of value curve will likely be the only one to follow a traditional S-curve since MOE and UOA are much less significant problems. And I will say, I've seen this exact chart for 5 years now lol.
I agree about gold parity (mkt cap) being closer to 25%, although definitions of adoption vary widely.
I don't agree that MoE is a less important problem. I do think it will take a long learning process.
Surely not this 'exact' chart 😉. I only made the original about a year ago. It only seems like 5 years because of how fast things are moving!
Very nice 👍
👌🏽
I guess my estimates were too pessimistic once again...
It looks like the Bitcoin for oil trade is already here.
I had banks on 2026... but we are seeing some of them jump in in 2025. It's a race now...
First time i come across this chart. Very Interesting. I've been working for more than a year on different s curve bitcoin price models (with curve fitting) in order to get a more generalized one on total hashrate evolution and it's constrains. It's still a big WIP, still slowly but surely, we are advancing. If I may ask, could you pls share the docs/data behind this cool forecasts? I would be very useful for a comparison. Thks in advance.
Could you?
nostr:nprofile1qqsxrp2fw6ap55utnhldrvwlndpw2asz0y8fx4x9nzgmu7ehz0dkxlqpr9mhxue69uhkc6t8dp6xu6twvaex2mrp0yhxxmmd9uqsuamnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dshszyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9ekk7mf000nmvd ?
It's still happening faster than expected. Bitcoin moves fast!
Fíjate que yo creo que irá exponencialmente más acotadito todo entre 2025-2030.
Va a ser un cambio de época.
In Spain banks and neobanks with over 50% penetration are or will be offering Bitcoin to their clients by 2026. In the next bubble they will be marketing Bitcoin aggressively to their clients, the incentives are strong, the competition fierce.
This is how Bitcoin will surpass 40% market penetration by 2030.
After the next halving, as the price rises, the percentage of people wanting to spend some sats will be significant enough for merchant adoption to make senses, first as a gimmick, then as a competitive advantage and eventually as a requirement.
That is how the MoE chart will parallel the SoV chart with a few years delay.
Similarly when the volumen of payments is high enough, maybe another cycle or two later, it will make sense for many companies to start using sats and Bitcoin as a UoA.
It's a process. People looking at a static picture are missing the point. It will take years and be gradual, but the trend is clear.
