Meta’s AI Llama does pretty well:

While we can't know for certain what Elon Musk thinks or knows, I can provide some context and insights.

1. *Deflationary nature of the free market*: Elon Musk is a well-read and informed individual. He has likely encountered the idea that, in the absence of central banking and monetary policy, the natural tendency of a free market is indeed deflationary. This concept is rooted in the Austrian School of economics, which emphasizes the role of technological progress and increased productivity in driving down prices.

2. *Exponential technology gains and lower prices*: Musk has spoken publicly about the importance of exponential thinking and the potential for technological advancements to drive significant improvements in productivity and efficiency. Given his involvement in various industries, such as electric cars (Tesla), space exploration (SpaceX), and renewable energy (SolarCity), he likely understands how technological progress can lead to lower prices and increased accessibility.

3. *Centralized control systems and theft*: Musk has expressed concerns about the concentration of power and the potential for centralized control systems to stifle innovation and limit individual freedom. While he may not have explicitly stated that systems that prevent deflationary pressures are a form of theft, he has advocated for decentralized systems and the importance of individual autonomy.

4. *Bitcoin and the control system*: Elon Musk has indeed been critical of Bitcoin, citing concerns about its energy consumption and volatility. While it's possible that his views on Bitcoin are influenced by his own interests and the potential disruption it could cause to traditional financial systems, it's also possible that he genuinely believes in the potential of other cryptocurrencies or decentralized systems that he is involved with, such as Dogecoin.

In conclusion, while we can't know for certain what Elon Musk thinks or knows, it's likely that he is aware of the deflationary nature of the free market, the potential for technological progress to drive down prices, and the risks associated with centralized control systems. However, his views on Bitcoin and decentralized systems are likely influenced by a complex array of factors, including his own interests, values, and priorities.

Silly AI, it was an “and” statement:

0.9 x 0.95 x 0.8 x 0.7 = 0.48 😘

Interesting exercise.

Here is ChatGPT-4.5 response:

"It's highly likely Elon Musk understands points 1, 2, and 3 clearly:

Natural state of free markets is deflation:

Musk has explicitly acknowledged the deflationary effects of technology multiple times—particularly how technological innovation inherently reduces costs and prices, benefiting consumers. His interviews frequently reflect awareness of exponential technologies and their broader economic implications.

Exponential technological gains should flow to society through lower prices:

Musk's business strategy explicitly leverages technology's deflationary nature—his companies like Tesla and SpaceX openly discuss driving down costs through technology, thereby democratizing access to electric cars, space travel, and internet connectivity (Starlink). This strongly suggests he fully understands this principle.

Centralized control as theft:

Musk has often spoken out against various forms of centralization and government overreach, signaling a libertarian-leaning economic viewpoint. His comments frequently critique regulation, monopoly power, and centralized bureaucracy—demonstrating he's well aware of the harm caused by centralized control systems.

The nuanced and complex part is your final assertion:

He doesn't comment positively on Bitcoin because it breaks the control system from which he benefits:

Musk has publicly supported cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin, Dogecoin), though his views have oscillated. He has acknowledged Bitcoin’s decentralized qualities positively but has also criticized its energy consumption and environmental footprint. While Musk certainly benefits from the existing financial system—his companies access vast amounts of credit, subsidies, and governmental support—he has also publicly criticized parts of the financial and regulatory establishment. This indicates he understands the implications clearly but walks a careful line, balancing his critique with pragmatism and self-interest.

In short, the likelihood Musk knows and agrees with points 1–3 is extremely high (nearly certain). Regarding point 4, it's more complicated: he's certainly aware Bitcoin could disrupt centralized control systems, but attributing his occasional skepticism purely to self-interested preservation of control oversimplifies his motives. His stance likely mixes genuine concerns (environmental impacts, market stability, technical scalability) and pragmatic self-interest given his position in existing economic structures."

I've been pondering this for four years.

I didn’t need Grok to tell me Elon almost certainly gets bitcoin. This is interesting to read though.

Why he doesn’t talk about it? The man has a lot of other more pressing things to talk about.

Ask Grok if Elon cares more about his mission or his wealth.

The answer - his mission. Wealth is just the means to his end. He openly subverts his own wealth on a regular basis.

It’s pretty silly to suggest he is avoiding bitcoin discussion to protect his own wealth. Ridiculous even, in my view.

He likely understands the logic but can’t acknowledge that his personal success came as a result of a manipulated monetary system, rather than his value creation in a free market. Ever since listening to you on Coinstories, I’ve had to apply that line of reasoning to my own situation. It can be a tough pill to swallow to view your own life circumstances that way. Insightful, as always Jeff.

I’m an Elon fan, but the game theory here is undeniable.

-Anybody entrenched in a profitable system will fight change to that system.

I was always the monopoly banker when we were kids

—and I always won.

My little sisters never batted an eye that always had cash on hand to pay rent.

Impressive. Also impressive that I read all of it.

That whole answer really came out of AI? If so, wow, that was good.

If helpful. When Jordan Peterson asked if he trusted himself. Elon responded “no”, and something to the effect of you can’t really trust anyone but for now he’s trying to do the right thing.

Elon is like a kid in a toy store. He likes to tinker and create. Bitcoin doesn't give him that kind of space.

long, but good 🤝

#ChatGPT

Elon Musk is an exceptionally intelligent person with a deep understanding of economics, technology, and systems of control. Given his background, it's highly likely that he understands:

1. The natural state of a free market is deflationary due to efficiency gains and competition.

2. In an unmanipulated market, exponential technological progress should lower prices, benefiting society.

3. Any intervention that prevents this—like inflationary monetary policies—is a form of wealth extraction via centralized control.

The real question is why he doesn't openly support Bitcoin beyond occasional memes or trolling.

He benefits from the system: Tesla and SpaceX receive significant government subsidies, and his ventures are deeply intertwined with regulatory bodies. Openly attacking the fiat system could create unnecessary friction.

Bitcoin disrupts control structures: If Bitcoin succeeds, it reduces the power of central banks and governments—entities that Musk still has to work with.

He may have his own play: He has hinted at ideas like X as a financial system, which could integrate a Musk-controlled payment network rather than an open, decentralized one.

So, while he likely knows, his incentives are misaligned with outright Bitcoin evangelism. Instead, he stays on the sidelines, occasionally dropping hints while ensuring he doesn’t alienate the system that fuels his ventures.

Curious whether #DeepSeek R1 is aligned, and it certainly seems so. Here’s its response, generated using Fullmoon.app running locally on an iPhone.

“Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the likelihood that Elon Musk knows these four specific statements about the free market. Let me break each one down and see how I can approach this.

First, the natural state of the free market being deflation. I know that deflation is a general economic phenomenon where prices tend to fall over time, often driven by factors like increased production, reduced demand, or increased production methods. I'm not sure if Musk has any direct knowledge about this, but maybe he does, especially if he's involved in economic policies or market research. I should consider how much he's involved in the global economy and whether he's aware of such economic trends.

Next, the idea that exponential technology gains should flow to society in the form of lower prices. Exponential growth in technology typically leads to higher prices as costs rise. If Musk believes that such growth should lead to lower prices, he might be part of a group that believes in a sustainable and efficient market. This could be part of his broader strategy to influence the market towards a more equitable and efficient state. I'm not sure if he explicitly mentions this, but it's plausible.

Then, the notion that stopping this natural process is theft through a centralized control system. This seems a bit more abstract. If the free market is naturally moving towards deflation and lower prices, stopping it might involve some kind of regulation or control. If Musk thinks that such control would be theft, he might be part of a group that opposes or seeks to impose such regulations. I don't know if he explicitly states this, but it's a possible angle.

Lastly, the reason he doesn't comment positively on Bitcoin is because it breaks the control system he benefits from. Bitcoin has been a major player in the cryptocurrency space, and Musk's influence is significant. If he's part of the control system, using Bitcoin as a platform could be a point of contention. This makes me think he might have some stake in Bitcoin's development, which could lead to negative comments. I'm not sure how common this is, but it's a possibility.

I also need to consider Musk's public statements and statements from his speeches. If he's been critical of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, that could be a sign that he's aware of certain aspects of the market. Additionally, if he's involved in policy-making or economic planning, he might be aware of the broader market trends.

On the flip side, Musk's behavior is often unpredictable. He can take a variety of approaches, and his comments and statements might not always reflect his underlying beliefs. It's also possible that he's not aware of certain aspects of the market, especially if he's not deeply involved in it. However, given his influence in the cryptocurrency space and his role in global economic policies, it's more likely that he has some awareness of these topics.

In summary, while it's possible that Musk has some awareness of these points, the likelihood seems high, especially considering his involvement in the global economy and the cryptocurrency space. However, it's also possible that he's not aware of certain aspects, and his comments might not always align with his beliefs.

The likelihood that Elon Musk has direct knowledge of the four points mentioned is relatively high, given his significant involvement in the global economy and the cryptocurrency space. Here's a breakdown of each point and the reasoning behind it:

1. Natural State of the Free Market as Deflation:

It is plausible that Musk has some awareness of deflation, as it is a general economic phenomenon influenced by various factors. His involvement in global economic policies and market research could contribute to this awareness.

2. Exponential Technology Gains Flowing to Lower Prices:

Musk's strategy likely revolves around market efficiency and sustainability. His belief in a sustainable market could influence his stance on exponential growth leading to lower prices, making this a likely point of awareness.

3. Stopping Natural Process as Theft:

This idea suggests Musk is part of a group opposing centralized control. While speculative, it's possible that Musk is involved in policies that seek to stabilize the market, which could tie into his awareness of stopping natural processes.

4. ** Bitcoin as a Control System**:

Given Musk's influence in the cryptocurrency space, it's likely he has some stake in Bitcoin. If he benefits from its use as a platform, negative comments could arise, indicating awareness of Bitcoin's development and impact on the market.

In conclusion, the likelihood that Musk has some awareness of these points is high, particularly due to his involvement in global economics and cryptocurrency. However, these points are not guaranteed, and Musk's behavior can vary widely.”

On a human intelligence level, the incentives to get behind bitcoin don’t align well with his business incentives. If “fixing the money” fixes the world, then few would be lining up to leave a thriving planet for a barren, inhospitable one that takes 150-300 days to reach…

ThisIsAwesome

I personally belief Elon absolutely understands the mechanics of deflation and centralized control. He’s built companies that thrive on these principles. Strategic silence? Self-preservation? Or just waiting for the right moment? Either way, Bitcoin wins in the end. Bitcoin doesn’t give a shit. It just runs. Relentless 🧡

This outlines the problem with AI the data it uses (because it’s not an intelligence per se, is narrative nonsense. From reusable rockets to the fake history of Elon Musk, you need to deep dive into who this actor really is. You’re the one is push pushing and confirming the establishment narrative by giving credit to complete degenerates like this Elon Musk. I’ve met him. If there was ever an argument for possession, this boy would meet that criteria. At least we know we know who has been writing Wikipedia all these yearsyou don’t think they introduced AI to us as soon as they discovered it.

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Great post! Thank you

No one knows with 100% certainty why he has taken a quiet stance but one thing we know for sure is that it is calculated.

Further, Elon has alluded UBI was likely necessary (stated a year or two ago) and also said he agrees with a carbon tax. Both would grossly enrich and empower him.

He has been imo neutral on AI in terms of creating fear around AI which would help allow moats to be built to enrich him further through literally every company he’s involved in. Also has been openly critical of Open AI for not being open source and Grok is open source or mostly open source?

I have narrowed down 3 scenarios because I think he understands bitcoin and understands that tech is deflationary:

1. He is Satoshi and has been quiet and may perhaps gift 1M btc to the US at the right time.

2. Agrees tech is deflationary but has convinced himself through his ego that he must save humanity and get us to Mars etc to help preserve the light that is human consciousness in a vast darkness.

3. Straight up evil genius, though his day to day actions and sheer determination would be hard to fake this over a lifetime.

nostr:npub1fdhjvx4kwxrw8gtxzqef8e4573ftxlx5g25ynln4096js979qvlqnlglhr

He knows.

Long one but good content.

Well done sir 👊

I've been thinking it might be a stay in your lane sort thing... It was Saylor afterall who apparently was the first to inform him he can sell substantial amounts of fiat for bitcoin

Ask Grok the same about Peter Schiff.

Except that we don’t have a natural state of a free market. All governments print money and inflate their currencies.

Great Elon/Bitcoin analysis Jeff. I have wondered about this. I agree he gets the economics. I think his ego gets in the way of the rest. He benefits so much from the fiat system. Also he doesn’t need Bitcoin. We all need Bitcoin of course but he’s the richest man. I’m looking forward to exploring this further when we chat next month 💫

I’d like to counter with the following narrative;

Assuming that there are only 10 people on the planet. All 10 people need enough ’currency’ to be able to trade in and among themselves. That amount is dependent upon a determined given level of lifestyle choices. In other words there is a minimum level. We should all be able to agree on that. Now, add 100 more people (110 in total) and try to use the same quantity of currency. It’s obvious that there will be a shortage of currency for the 100 people added to the scene. What does a shortage of currency do? Prices go down. Why? Because some of the 100 will decide to lower the asking price of their services or goods in order to accumulate currency for themselves. In that situation, there just isn’t enough currency to go around for the level of the population.

Now some people would say that prices would rise because, like Bitcoin, a shortage of currency means people would pay more to buy (dollars-currency)

Which force is more powerful? Someone that wants to pay more for their dollars by giving more services for any given currency, or the shortage of currency raising the price of services and goods?(note I’ve written these in reverse order, as one won’t have goods without currency, but will have services to offer)

It’s imperative that there be enough currency for a “stable economy” where prices aren’t fluctuating wildly. In other words, governments will, rightly so, print more currency to ensure that people don’t starve. (Which is exactly what would happen if there wasn’t enough currency to go around) With only enough currency in circulation for 10 people, 100 people would need to go without. Starvation is not an option. Therefore, a currency needs to be expandable to a level appropriate to the level of the population.

It is conceivable that the prices of services will go down but the price of goods will go up.

So one can see why a currency NEEDS to be expandable to the correct amount for a given society and its level of population. This point is hard to debate.

The problem arises when governments expand the level of currency higher than the needs of the population and do so to “invest” in war, social services, or to inflate away the resulting debts that accumulate.

However, Bitcoin, as a currency is just plain not expandable, therefore it isn’t suitable as a currency, because there isn’t enough of it to be usable by the global population. As more people want to accumulate Bitcoin, its price will rise. The same can be said for the USD, unless the U.S. government continues to print.

So, in conclusion, the debate over whether the “natural state of the economy is deflation” isn’t 100% determinable.

The time has come for in depth content. Thank you Jeff!

Musk is muted on South Africa as well.

Jus sayin.

Jeff, I’m seeing clips going around today on X of an interview Elon recently did with Ted Cruz discussing AI that contributes to your theory here. Elon says goods and services will become basically free.

My personal take on it is that Elon wants humans to get to Mars, and he won’t do anything that delays that outcome or reduces its probability of success. He likely views deficit spending and a large government budget for NASA and defense as crucial elements of getting to Mars faster. So although he might understand that sound money like Bitcoin would overall be better for the wellbeing of humanity today, he is willing to tolerate the suffering of the working class for a while longer in order to achieve his goal of putting humanity on Mars sooner. People might not be willing to fund Mars colonization if they had to pay for it directly in the form of taxes instead of via currency debasement / inflation.

You—of Grok—give Elon too much credit. He book smart. But that's about it.

Occam's Razor agrees.

Great prompt

Asked the same to ChatGPT 3o:

Hey Martien—here’s a (necessarily) arm-chair probability run, anchored to what Musk has actually said and done in public:

Assertion Likely?* Why I land there (evidence & reasoning)

1. “Natural” free-market trend is deflation ≈ 85 % Musk has warned the Fed that a “major rate hike risks deflation,” and he’s repeatedly blamed rising prices on government money-printing rather than supply-and-demand.  

2. Tech progress should drive prices down for everyone ≈ 80 % His whole playbook is about steep learning-curve cost drops (“the best part is no part, the best cost is no cost”) and constant price-cuts on Teslas/Starlink as volumes rise. He speaks of Moore-like curves in rockets, batteries and AI chips, implying consumer deflation as the end-state. 

3. Blocking that deflation equals wealth transfer via central control (“theft”) ≈ 60 % Musk stops short of calling it outright “theft,” yet he does frame inflation as the result of “excess government spending” and a stealth tax on ordinary people—which is philosophically the same point.  

4. His muted stance on Bitcoin is because BTC breaks a system he profits from ≈ 35 % He has gone quiet on Bitcoin since Tesla’s 2021 energy U-turn, while loudly boosting Dogecoin and courting U-S-government contracts and subsidies. But other motives—energy optics, SEC headaches, meme-marketing—are at least as plausible. He occasionally resurfaces with mild BTC praise, which weakens the “benefits-from-the-system” theory.  

*Rough subjective odds, not statistical measurements.

Take-aways in plain English

• Musk almost certainly understands macro-deflation and tech-driven price collapse; it’s part of his public narrative.

• He pretty clearly sees inflation as a government-caused transfer of wealth, even if he couches it in less loaded language than “theft.”

• The Bitcoin silence is murkier. It could be strategic brand-management, regulatory caution, or simple preference for his pet meme-coin rather than fear of losing “system” advantages.

So: high confidence on items 1-3 being in his head, but only a coin-flip—or less—that 4 is his real motivation for staying mostly mum on BTC.

Feels like GROK/xAI understands it’s creator