Avatar
Ben Eng
0b1e11c0406b6f929dd3c9c21e5a2930527d327912ef6dff13a64ad2d3c6aeea
Applied cosmology toward machine precise solutions to replace humans with autonomous systems in all domains.

Listening to this read. nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev, does Bitcoin mining rely on real time availability of Internet access? Or can a block be verified offline and then synced to the block chain periodically (i.e., once per day)?

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2W7MuTETn73GMjJOkCEUES?si=uklow9IhS9qffDS887_ruQ

I imagine that as AI models proliferate to become more personalized, compute will adapt to treat GPUs less like physically attached hardware and more logically. Like storage volumes that are virtualized and dynamically scalable, so you can attach a H100 slice for a few minutes.

The Spirit of Satoshi industry report (listen to read by nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev in AI Unchained podcast) gives this insight. If a foundation model is trained on mainstream data, fine-tuning on good data is very difficult to correct the prior misinformation.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1ckb2A3rPY7zGpcxW3jT9E?si=pARMwzPdQ9GEvmRM0MxWww

Now, apply this insight to humans who have been "educated" by state indoctrination, and our goal is to correct their mislearning using good information. How difficult is that task? (The phenomenon of cognitive dissonance is useful in both human and machine intelligence.)

When original training adjusts the model weights (is learned as knowledge in the neurons), it is impossible unlearn (irreversible). New fine-tuning can only make further adjustments that add to what is learned, hopefully with greater weight and without causing confusion.

The difficulty of unlearning can be understood by examining the concept of unit economy in epistemology. Optimizing knowledge compactness. Absorb concrete examples and learn the patterns and principles that are universal, committing the abstraction to one's knowledge. New knowledge contradicting those abstractions is difficult to reconcile.

Knowing this, we should appreciate (1) epistemic humility and (2) be sympathetic to those confused by cognitive dissonance. (1) is the recognition that past learning can be based on false data. (2) recognizes that others reacting badly is natural to their mistraining.

What is the capital of Ancapistan? Ancapistanople or Ancapistanbul?

"We" is a big club. And you ain't in it.

Across covid public health, climate change, and monetary policy, they believe that fear-mongering, lying, and suppressing inquiry and dissent are valid for manipulating collective action. That's why we don't recognize their authority.

Is it possible to build a keystore (wallet) architecture that itself is distributed in a way that is resilient to being lost or destroyed, while remaining completely unassailable? Another requirement that is important to prevent lost wealth is for that key store to have a dead man's switch along with a list of authorized executors of the will. Possibly to build such a thing without it becoming assailable prior to death?

Replying to Avatar Tom Honzik

How long will it take for bitcoin to become the dominant monetary system, AKA hyperbitcoinization?

I’ve heard some bitcoiners say that the realistic time frame might be 20 years from now or more.

Here’s why I think they’re wrong, and we see it happen before 2030:

1) Evidence points to strong probability that there will be at least 2 more bull cycles before 2030, whether it is caused by the next two halvings or something else.

2) I believe that each bull market causes the population of bitcoin adopters to increase at an exponential rate. More touch points, more word of mouth, more education, more reason to believe bitcoin is not going away. If this is correct, then I believe after only 2 more bull cycles, the majority of the world will be bitcoin adopters—game over.

3) As bitcoin in the next bull cycles becomes worth hundreds of thousands of USD, I think it becomes more and more clear to people that $1M per coin is possible, which psychologically will be a huge deal (breaking cognitive dissonance, “OMG this thing really does go up forever”)

4) It’s true that much of the world’s population is not ready to adopt bitcoin, which is a main argument for people who think the process will take decades. But… most people don’t matter in terms of hyperbitcoinization. Once we get large corporations and governments fighting over the bitcoin supply, it’s game over. Everyone else will be forced into bitcoin whether they like it or not. And do we really think we won’t see see institutions fighting over BTC before 2030, with one or two more bull cycles? The infrastructure is increasingly being built to accommodate this.

5) The debt spiral across the globe is real, and needs to be dealt with. Money will be printed, inflation will get worse, and people will increasingly need alternatives to protect themselves. I see it as quite unlikely that fiat only gets marginally worse before 2030.

6) Things being built with bitcoin continue to increase, widening its use cases and providing even more avenues for adoption.

We’ve heard “gradually then suddenly,” and I think the final “suddenly” that ends fiat will be either this coming bull cycle, or the following one at the latest. I don’t see how there could be room for a third bull cycle from here. I’m even skeptical about there being room for two… it’s possible that hyperbitcoinization occurs in just the next 1-2 years, which sounds crazy enough that it would even catch most bitcoiners off guard.

If you disagree, let me know why you think I’m wrong!

Will Bitcoin gain traction in certain use cases sooner than others? Sure, hodlers now use Bitcoin as a store of value and a speculative investment waiting for number go up to the moon and for USD to implode. What's the next domino to fall? Perhaps Lightning and zaps will enable the first generation of digital services to become popularized on Nostr. I think some form of digital service will break through before fiat falls or the payment card industry is overthrown or the banking/financial services industry is displaced.

«Bittensor provides a decentralized and permissionless platform to build incentive-driven compute systems as a one-stop shop for AI developers seeking all the compute requirements for building applications on top of an incentivized model»

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/ex-google-employee-launches-open-sourced-ai-protocol-challenge-tech-giants

I have a green card. That makes me a resident alien.

Wow, it goes work! Thank you.

Amethyst is giving share links hosted by snort.social - is this standard for Nostr across all clients? That site is definitely not previewing on Twitter, so it could really benefit from this.