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#proofofwalk

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Honestly some of the most actionable and useful advice I've gotten online over the past year is nostr:npub1dvufvl73s0xdz8d75dgcyjvl0wrmczczvr0ef88g5x8uehmr4fus0j0pwx saying to go in the sun and walk more, and categorizing all the science behind it.

I don't really remember most of what came across my way on Twitter over the year, mostly a bunch of macro bullshit, but now in the morning I immediately go and get some sun if it's out.

#proofofwalk

I've always wondered why people watch movies. why stories can hook us. and every time I listen to an interview with a psychologist or other specialist who tries to explain all this I hear #Lost tv show as an example. what is it about it that makes people remember it twenty years later?

#psychology #movies

Бывает, сидим-молчим. И тут кто-то резко встанет и крикнет: "Смотрите-ка, биткоин уже пятьдесят пять тысяч двести двадцать шесть долларов и двадцать два цента стоит!"

Тут ему обязательно кто-то уверено возразит: "Да на РБК говорят, что за биткоин будут давать не больше двадцати двух тысяч ста тридцати четырех долларов и одного цента!"

А потом всегда появляется Майкл Сэйлор полный уверенности в том, что биткоин подорожает еще в тысячу раз.

То есть, одни верят, что цена пойдет вверх, другие — что вниз, но при этом единственную объективную величину, так называемую "рыночную цену" данную нам ощущениях, все как будто игнорируют. Получается, что рыночная цена это такая устойчивая величина, с которой не согласен ни один человек.

Скажем, если бы какой-нибудь огромный фонд публично обязался выкупать все биткоины на отметке в двадцать тысяч долларов, а мы бы тогда получили гарантию, что никогда цена не уйдет ниже, то вряд ли бы мы увидели рыночную цену на этих значениях, потому что на этой отметке цена имеет апсайд, но не имеет даунсайда, рисков столько же, как с бесплатным биткоином. Можно этот мысленный эксперимент развернуть и тогда мы получим потолок цены. А если приложим оба этих условия, можем смело рассчитывать на рыночную цену в заданном диапазоне.

Поскольку рынок открыт для условно бесконечного количества участников, а информация между ними распределена неравномерно, процесс ценообразования для любого из этих участников оказывается трансцендентным (недоступным для восприятия и анализа), но — парадоксально — никакое ценообразование невозможно без попытки со стороны участников рынка его просчитать.

Рыночная цена складывается из прогнозов, поэтому никто и никогда с ней не будет согласен.

#ностр

я не экономист, но фраза "рыночная цена складывается из прогнозов" мне кажется странной.

Большая волатильность биткоина как раз и означает что он в процессе поиска цены. Поэтому вполне логично что с текущей ценой никто не согласен. Когда волатильность будет 2-3 процента вот это и будет цена с которой все, или не все, согласны. Процесс поиска цены процесс нудный и долгий, но ничего трансцедентального тут нет. Причин почему это долго много. Добавь к этому что деньги вообще консервативная вещь, пока люди сто раз не убедятся что все работает не поверят. Не все понимают что хеш функция или цифровая подпись будет работать и через двадцать лет точно также. Плюс тонна пропаганды.

Интересно кстати узнать как складывалась цена на золото, тоже наверняка не просто.

I played contexto.me #683 and got it in 34 guesses.

🟩 8

🟨🟨 13

🟥🟥 13

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Here’s an observation about shitty Twitter algorithms.

I’ve actually never blocked or muted anyone on Twitter. Never felt the need. 690k followers, countless comments, no filters.

If someone is an ass, I tend to just ignore them or akido them and move on.

I just went over to Twitter and checked my notifications. Some guy posted in an unusually negative way in one of my threads. For a brief moment, I was provoked. But then I looked: he has 8,700 posts and 6 followers. Briefly skimming his profile, it is pure negativity. Imagine this. Like actually take a moment to think about what that process feels like for him, let alone how he impacts others.

Posting eight thousand and seven hundred times, mostly negatively, and after well more than a thousand of those posts, someone elects to follow him.

The algorithm trains us to see this and get angry. When he shows up in our feed, he seems like a normal person who disagrees with us. But he’s not normal. Someone like that is literally and sadly more in the mentally ill camp, even as the algorithm presented him to us like any other normal person, saying we suck.

Imagine if we had more programmable filters and algorithms. Like, mute people with over a thousand posts but with less than one follower per five hundred posts. That filters him out, similarly to how we would visually filter out and thus physically avoid a man holding his own shit in his hand in public on a street, who needs help but not public attention and proximity.

The centralized algorithms we have normalized, are not real life.

We give people virtual access that we would not do publicly, partially because we can program our real-life algorithms with various behavior rules that we can’t do on most virtual platforms.

but still, I thought we are blaming social media for algorithms and not lack of them

a while back, I was using a dating site. and after some time I understand that that every person I meet in real life is filtered. literally. I'm a programmer, my circle is programmers and people around them. I can't meet a bank clerk ) My wife for example is IT manager. But person from dating site it is just random and that experience was so weird.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Here’s an observation about shitty Twitter algorithms.

I’ve actually never blocked or muted anyone on Twitter. Never felt the need. 690k followers, countless comments, no filters.

If someone is an ass, I tend to just ignore them or akido them and move on.

I just went over to Twitter and checked my notifications. Some guy posted in an unusually negative way in one of my threads. For a brief moment, I was provoked. But then I looked: he has 8,700 posts and 6 followers. Briefly skimming his profile, it is pure negativity. Imagine this. Like actually take a moment to think about what that process feels like for him, let alone how he impacts others.

Posting eight thousand and seven hundred times, mostly negatively, and after well more than a thousand of those posts, someone elects to follow him.

The algorithm trains us to see this and get angry. When he shows up in our feed, he seems like a normal person who disagrees with us. But he’s not normal. Someone like that is literally and sadly more in the mentally ill camp, even as the algorithm presented him to us like any other normal person, saying we suck.

Imagine if we had more programmable filters and algorithms. Like, mute people with over a thousand posts but with less than one follower per five hundred posts. That filters him out, similarly to how we would visually filter out and thus physically avoid a man holding his own shit in his hand in public on a street, who needs help but not public attention and proximity.

The centralized algorithms we have normalized, are not real life.

We give people virtual access that we would not do publicly, partially because we can program our real-life algorithms with various behavior rules that we can’t do on most virtual platforms.

> "the algorithm presented him to us like any other"

what do you mean by that? maybe algorithm just did nothing

in some countries people not allowed to use cards to buy on binance or have limits. p2p is for them. second - some people don't want their bank to know that they transacting with binance. because in p2p case it looks like they just sending money to private person and in this case it impossible to connect this transaction to bitcoin