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Houston
1146c0daffb25ca06a27a8f262412963570100705a9381cdd34410e1f6ac5ccf
Ex-TradFi trader. Master of crayons. 🖍️ In the game of trading crypto for more Bitcoin. 💸 Writing about what I observe, think and trade. 🔭

💯- but somehow these token schemes attract the fiat minded like a moth to a flame. When will it ever end? 😂

Replying to Avatar ODELL

Speaking of social websites, nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx, i'd love to hear your take on friend.tech. 🤣

In French, they're called saule pleureur.

Reminds me of Monet's painting of the same name.

Playing with #Nunchuk.

I never knew that multi-sig could be so easy.

Thanks nostr:npub1rxysxnjkhrmqd3ey73dp9n5y5yvyzcs64acc9g0k2epcpwwyya4spvhnp8 for the tutorials. 🫡

I've been using mine for years but when things go wrong they really go wrong. 🤣

2 charts I'm watching closely -

US10Y

Yields on the US 10-year is getting awfully close to new cycle highs. 💣

USDJPY

Japan is the furthest along amongst G nations in its experiments with monetary policy. Now the Yen is heading back towards cycle lows - watch carefully to see how Japan reacts. 👀

Kaching - As the saying goes, sometimes all you have to do is wait until all the chips are on one side of the table. 💰

This doesn't portend well.

Long bond - $TLT -

Weekly inside bar and down.

The downtrend accelerated with the double inside quarter and down. We are likely to visit the recent lows and lower and see some price discovery.

Zooming all the way out and $TLT is still trading year so it will be interesting to watch if it remains in last year's range or not.

The game gets easier once you understand broadening formations exist.

Then it gets down to execution.

ETHBTC - weekly inside bar reversal slowly playing out which puts the 0.06108 pivot in play.

Monthly outside -inside break setting up which would put the larger broadening formation in play.

Personally, i wouldn't be surprised if we drift sideways until the new quarter and we see vol return in the Fall.

I'm currently in the BTC/ETH pairs trade - long BTC and short ETH via perp futures.

Structuring it this way allows you often collect funding from one side of the trade to offset the carry cost while waiting for the directional move.

Back to posting charts on nostr!

$BTC update

We got the 3-month reversal - momo-up reversal - which now puts the 24825 pivot in play.

The multiple outside bars have caught a lot of traders offside.

This is when zooming out to a higher timeframe helps see the forest through the trees.

On the 12-month - $BTC is clearly trading inside year and it's very unlikely we break that range.

Tactically, this still means that on a risk-adjusted basis, it's still best to sell rips and buy dips.

If you're a longer-term trader/investor then keep some gun powder dry, don't chase as you will have opportunities to buy $BTC at cheaper prices.

Bad news: my buyer bailed on me for my #Bitcoin 2023 GA ticket.

Good news: I'm paying it forward by giving it away for free!

If you're interested in a GA ticket for #Bitcoin2023 in Miami Beach FOLLOW and DM me for the next 4 hours and you'll be entered in a random draw. ⏰

That's right. The lower low often is the better entry for several reasons:

- stops out early bottom pickers

- completes the A-B-C extension

- sets up for the potential double bottom

- sets up for a potential bullish divergence on various indicators.

Note the 2D-RDR-L that formed at the bottom and the recent 2D-RDR-S at the top of the range.