https://goodmenproject.com/author/tom-matlack/
This was a blog project he launched a few years back. Not sure how active he writes publicly anymore.
Not orange or purple pilled yet. I’ve been going slow with him. Not pushing too hard. He will find it in divine timing. As we all have/will. 🧡😌💜
“We’re going to decapitate gold this cycle. We’re going to fucking cut the head off gold — CHUH CHAH! And be like who’s next? The Euro? YOU WANT SOME?” - nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs with nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u
🦗 🦗🦗
“We’re going to decapitate gold this cycle. We’re going to fucking cut the head off gold — CHUH CHAH! And be like who’s next? The Euro? YOU WANT SOME?” - nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs with nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u
Not even the slightest chance this will happen. I will bet upto 100mil sats at 2-1 odds that this will NOT happen this cycle.
Already have 2mil sats of this bet on with nostr:npub14evvr7lp03jf48zl9dy84g2jqqaem0zreyw8ssr8djmzfg9el0dsntlrc7
Who wants the other 98mil? nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs?
Ping me when it hits 8-10x NAV as in your original thesis.
That’s what started this whole thread….😉
Seriously though…..happy holidays and keep stacking UTXOs! 🎄🧡
Dont know if this link shared cleanly.
Balanced article, I thought.
Pretty much spells out what I was sharing with you (as my opinion) over past week.
Even at 2x price to NAV, this is a very risky stock to trade from the long side. Especially with leaps….
Sure, you could catch an expanding wave up again. But that would be an exception. Very hard to time.
Better to just stack UTXOs, in my opinion. Over time, premium over NAV will likely trend towards 1 ☝️
Furthermore….(and THIS is the primary reason I’d be concerned if I had exposure to your trade)…
The NAV premium spent MOST of the 1q of 2024 between 1 and 1.5. With a month trading right at 1. Like it SHOULD!
There is no perpetual motion machine here. Only if there is sufficiently unsophisticated buyers to pay absurd premiums to the most liquid asset in the world.
Saylor KNOWS this. And so he will continue to sell stock at 2x, 1.75x, 1.5x etc
It’s free money for him and mstr. At the EXPENSE of those paying the high premium for mstr stock vs BTC NAV.
You may get another pop (to 2.25 or so) but this is a “one trick pony”.
Fortunately for you, you made big coin on that trick!!! 💰
Hmmmm. 🤔
What you are saying doesn’t match this real time chart OR what the price changes of MSTR and the underlying Bitcoin have been doing over the past few sessions, weeks and months….
The NAV multiple per “basic share” is at 2.056 barely moved from yesterday’s multi month LOW of 2.04. (After peaking in the mid 3s for a nano-second a few weeks ago when MSTR traded above 500)
The full diluted NAV at 2.36 just represents the marginal .3 multiples of underlying Bitcoin dilution if all convertible bonds converted to pure equity (from debt).
Nothing moved in any meaningful way from yesterday to today in these relationships.
We are still at multi month lows in the NAV/BTC ratio. Basic OR diluted.
And still too HIGH, IMO. But you already know that…😉
So that graph you linked is inaccurate?
💓🙏🏻💓
nostr:note1skc0sfd5ulwpadvmxn9pp6w3wtxqtsgj3eyf75hlmddn6wee0a5qggd8yn
Will likely be 2 by end of 2025 and 1 by 2029 or 2033 at latest. And that’s from a guy (me) that didn’t get it 24 months ago. 🤣
You don’t. Just be…..everyone has to find the rabbit hole in their “own” divine timing….🙏🏻😌
Its at 2.072x right now. Its been there since around 12-10-24. Lowest year to date. I use this site to keep tabs. https://www.mstr-tracker.com/
Great data set.
It will trade between 1.5 and 2 for most of 2025 is my read. Then collapse to .75-1 in 2026.
Back to 389 (down 11 percent since 1pm yesterday) on MSTR yet Bitcoin is same price. 106 ish.
NAV premium collapsing. For very understandable reasons. This will likely continue until premium is 1.25-1.5x Bitcoin holdings.
Where is it now? 2-2.25x
Not suggesting selling for fiat. Just UTXOs.
Yesterday’s top will likely mark the top in the premium of MSTR market cap to its underlying value in BTC.
While it will remain highly volatile in the short term, the trend will likely be down….
2 reasons…..
History suggests that once ANY stock is included in a major index, its relatively performance stabilises. The tailwind (of premium, not absolute price) is not what is was during the “rumor” phase.
The FASB rule change will encourage big money players to hold their OWN Bitcoin now at the margin. Since the accounting rules are now not stacked against them. That was a big reason that MSTR was so popular with hedge funds. That “draw” is over now.
If these comments make you upset, then you are too emotional about the position. My experience as a professional investor taught me that is EXACTLY when I needed to step back and look impartially at ALL factors.
Happy to make a side bet with you that BTC will outperform MSTR over next 12 months to prove to you I believe what I’m saying.
Sorry if I’m over stepping. Just wanting others to have benefit of what I’m “seeing”. Right or wrong. Then they can make their own decisions.
Peace brother. 🙏🏻😌
Looks like we have reached the “sell on the news” part of the MSTR NAV premium trade.
Hope you rolled most of those leaps into UTXOs 🙏🏻
(Not being sarcastic. Really hope you traded it well. Its not for the faint of heart as I learned decades ago in my day job 🤪)
“Change the way you see the world and the world you see will change 👁️”
nostr:note15xy9uqpyddz7dcj0vfm9g7ty2y8vrspk7rdc3tzx3rkngxvpqxgq6526r5
I call it “self auditing”. Requires constant vigilance. Must be a relatively new adaptive skill for us neo-monkeys 🙈
Thx for sharing 🙏🏻