Spot on. Like with many things it‘s up to us and how we engage with the world which shapes put reality the most.

Yeah, you missed the opportunity to put that in your screenshot.

Hash rate has gone up in this past cycle. But not anywhere near the rate it used to go up every cycle. And that's because (in my ooinion) the margins for mining are no longer proportional to the value of the network in nominal terms. I expect at the next halving for that to become blatantly apparent. As the reward halves, the only thing that makes up for that is increased demand for block space, but we aren't seeing that this time around, so capital's readiness to jump in and make a buck is less than in the past, and will be even less in the future.

STN did a public service in getting all that together on one page.

He just presents it in a disingenuous way.

Which issue do you find particularly concerning?

For those who keep wondering, I’m gonna put this plain and simple for you. And whoever wants to add to this may.

You’re invisible because you’re silent.

Your notes hit the relays. They exist. But you’re posting like you’re journaling, then wondering why nobody’s connecting with you.

There is no algorithm hiding you. You’re hiding yourself.

Human behavior hasn’t changed. People respond to people who engage. You want to be seen? Be social. Actual social, not “post and disappear” social.

Stop dropping 🤙 emojis like you’re collecting stamps. That’s not conversation. That’s performative participation.

Start real conversations. Reply to bigger accounts. Reply to smaller ones. Ask questions. Challenge ideas. Share your actual perspective. Make people feel like you’re there.

Your reply to post ratio reveals everything. If you’re posting more than you’re replying, you’re broadcasting, not building community.

The beauty of your world? Nobody sees it because you won’t show them. You won’t engage enough to let people in.

Nostr doesn’t owe you an audience. You build one through repeated, genuine interaction. One conversation at a time.

Stop wondering why it’s not working. Start doing the work that’s always worked: talking to people.

Now go start working. Or don’t, but don’t blame anyone else.

Zoom out.

Alright bros, let's do this. I have never and don't usually talk price action, but I want to now because it ties very closely in with the future of Bitcoin and a lot of things I've been talking about over the years with regard to the game theory of bitcoin and it's long term viability.

Bitcoin is headed for a price collapse very soon, but this one is very different from previous bear markets. Here's the timeline that I expect to see:

1) Bitcoin drops below 100k USD by the end of January. The 4 year cycle may be self fulfilling, maybe not, but we are at the end of one already. Expecting such a blatantly apparent pattern to the point that people treat it like terra firma to not happen this time because reasons is as delusional as expecting the price of some shitcoin to go up forever because tokenomics. Even if I'm wrong, it's bad calculus to bet against it.

2) MicroStrategy begins to liquidate to cover investors. MicroStrategy has been leveraging their Bitcoin purchases by selling shares who's valuation is entirely based on their Bitcoin holdings, then buying Bitcoin with them, thus raising the price of their shares, and on and on over and over. This cannot go on forever. They are the largest non-satoshi holder, so expect this to be an earthquake.

3) ETFs begin to see massive outflows. People love to talk about Bitcoin ETFs as if they're guaranteed demand. They're not. They can smooth volatility, but outflows can happen as easily as inflows, they're speculative also, people will buy and sell them with the price. If the above 2 things happen, this will too.

If all this happens, then of course Bitcoin's price will drop significantly. Nothing new. So how is this one different?

Well first, it breaks all the prominent models, stock to flow, power law, all broken if Bitcoin peaks around where it is now. Stock to flow is a great idea, but it neglects one fundamental measure, demand. I can have an nft with a stock to flow of infinity, if there's no demand for it it's worthless. Demand for bitcoin cannot be just taken for granted, and if you're serious about trying to find a real world value for it you can't do that.

Second, I talk a bit around here about how Bitcoin's value is its security, and the supply cap means security is doomed to failure and therefore so is it's utility and price. If you're interested in my takes on that check out my public bookmarks. I thought before that Bitcoin had one more cycle in it before that process began to become apparent, but now I'm convinced that this is the one and there are a few key indicators.

First, Bitcoin dropped below the previous all time high in the last bear market. This has never happened before. Second, Bitcoin reached a new all time high before the last halving, this has also never happened before. Third, this bull market, percentage wise, has been incredibly lackluster compared to previous ones. These are all signs that Bitcoin is experiencing peak hype by speculators, which let's be honest, almost all of you are. The act of predicting the future and making decisions based on that is called speculating.

Finally though, and this is the real big one, block space demand is not going up, hash rate is not going up. These are very very bad signs. All previous cycles saw transaction fees skyrocket and hash rate multiply, but not this one. These are signs that the security of the network is decaying. These are indicators that my thesis, that the security of the network will collapse as a result of capped supply, is beginning to occur. And Bitcoin's value, what we are trying to find when we price it, comes only from it's security.

So I fully expect that after this peak, which either has recently happened or is going to happen next month, Bitcoin will enter a decade long bear market. I am going to get a lot of hate for saying this, but you always get hate at 6am when you tell everyone you're out of blow and its time to go home. The party can't go on forever.

I expect there to be a lot of "what happened?"s and "I don't believe in the mission anymore" and the like. But not everyone will give up, there's those of us that still understand the true value in money like this. So I expect a decoupling of the crypto markets from Bitcoin. I expect some things to begin to have their own market movements independent of Bitcoin. I don't know all what, but from where I sit basically the only big blockchains that have the utility for that are Monero and Ethereum, I don't think it's a bad bet to assume they'll be in that club.

I do expect, when the damage is surveyed and with the clarity of hindsight, someone will try to fix the problems in Bitcoin that will lead to this, after whatever infighting inevitably happens. I do not know whether it will succeed. I hope it does. It's not going to happen next year, I expect that it won't happen until the next all time high doesn't arrive.

That of course doesn't mean there won't be ups and downs over the next decade. There will be, of course. But I expect no new all time highs for 10 years.

I expect the governments to come and tell us they have to ban and regulate this technology to protect investors. We cannot let them do that. The only blockchain community that I know of that outright refuses that offer is the Monero community. I hope we see success there.

I'm not just some doomsayer or naysayer. I love bitcoin. I'm not a trader or a number go up guy. Try to find as detailed an explanation as I've given here and elsewhere from the likes of Cramer and Schiff. I'm actually explaining what I see. Those guys will of course gloat, but they don't have a clue. I hope their gloating leads the governments to dismiss us again, we are gonna need it. But there have been serious architectural problems with Bitcoin, and some serious refusal to see what's in front of us, that inevitably led here.

I'd say I hope I'm wrong, but I don't. I'm certain I'm not. Even if I'm wrong this time, what I've warned of is coming. But I don't hope I'm wrong because something better can come after. Not better *than* Bitcoin, better *for* bitcoin. And at this point I don't believe there's any other way for that to happen, and I don't believe it's avoidable. And so, I firmly believe, we are on to the next chapter of the story. Let's make it a good one.

Hey guys, I need your help. Can you interact with this post a little? Like, reply... I'm building a notification system for #NoorNote right now.

What's the problem?

Avoid hardening your woman

Facing suffering, hardship, tests, trials, violence, and struggles makes us men more masculine and tough.

We grow up and get better by doing hard things.

Women are not like us. They are not meant to face the harshness of the world.

Both men and women grow up to maturity through taking on responsibilities. However, the optimal set of responsibilities that causes a man to grow up and the set that causes a woman to grow up are different.

Women mature by carefully guarding their value from damage or erosion. Protecting the fragile nature of femininity and learning to transmute the raw value men provide into even more valuable things (a house into home, food into a mean, sperm into a baby, etc.).

Women have three times the touch sensors in their thinner, softer skin. Their bones are more fragile, they have less muscle mass, and their more sensitive CNS can't take the same stimulation as ours. They need more sleep than we do. Estrogen causes emotional rollercoasters.

Women are the "weaker vessel."

Almost every young woman is feminine. It's in their nature. But a harsh life, a lack of fatherly protection, fending off attention from low-value men, battling with men in the workplace, or facing the same challenges that make a man better will beat that lovely softness out of her.

We are not the same.

Masculine men want a sweet, soft, feminine woman. But you can't have that if you assign her a role in the family that overburdens her and causes her to be in a masculine frame for hours a day, leaving her exhausted.

Women are capable of being very tough, but the cost or doing that is giving up their femininity.

Yes, it's not fair. Your woman needs better treatment than you do. Just as your children need even better treatment than she does. If that bothers you, marriage, women, and children are not for you.

None of this is about providing her with luxury. Women don't need luxury to be feminine and its likely to be harmful to them and your children in the long term. You also don't need to spend large amounts of money to care for her. Money can help, and outsourcing support for your wife is a viable solution when you lack a supportive extended family. For example I have hired a full-time maid for my wife for several years now.

Giving your wife good treatment is about how you interact with her and the world you create for her. Are you a source of leadership, authority, protection, comfort, strength, and support for your wife? Do you help her when she is overwhelmed? That's the way to care for a woman.

Both men and women thrive when we have a cognitive load to carry, but the optimal load tends to differ. While there is overlap, women do best when they are busy, loaded up, and responsible for things that appeal to women and are suited to their strengths, feminine things.

Let her be busy with the useful things she is best suited for.

If you are a woman reading this, please pay attention to the men you date and their attitudes about taking care of their women and eventual children. If you need help evaluating a man, DM me with the details, and I will give you expert advice.

Pura Vida #Nostr🤙

What kind of wood is this?

Receiver privacy part is largely obvious.

Of course you know how much money someone received. You're the one who sent it.

Same thing for the one-time stealth address. Receiver knows what address they are sending to because they're the ones that generated it via DHKE.

A third party looking at the blockchain can't link any stealth address to any public address. And stealth addresses are only used once then never again so there is no address reuse on-chain. Receiver anonymity set is every Monero user that has ever existed.

Leaks involving amount privacy is not true for the actual transaction amount. You can see this yourself by looking at a Monero block explorer. Completely hidden.

It's only true for fees that go to miners which is necessary or you couldn't have a fee market. What they do with that money afterwards is hidden.

Sender privacy reduction is true involving edge cases with targeted attacks.

Monero is upgrading to Full Chain Membership Proofs to resolve this problem. Every spend on the entire blockchain becomes your decoy (100,000,000+) instead of 15 decoys. There is already a stressnet out for it.

The part about wallets sharing viewkeys part isn't true for the vast majority of wallets. There is maybe one or two that exist that do that and aren't very popular to a community passionate about privacy (obviously).

Nodes being able to see your IP address is a network level privacy issue and isn't unique to Monero that applies to any crypto. Have to use Tor or a VPN.

My work is done here, when every Bitcoin maxi uses privacy preserving technology including other coins that fit the job.

I am you conscience. I am loving you. That's why I want you to use the best tools for the job. We need you.

We'll you can mute yourself into a bubble to recreate the algorithm echo chamber you call home to reinforce your presupposed or preprogramed ideas. I will continue to engage with the uncomfortable and have as much free open tolerant conversions with those who will in good faith.

🐳 Whales Trade Cold Wallets for Wall Street Convenience

Some of Bitcoin’s biggest holders are moving billions into ETFs after July’s rule change allowing tax-free, in-kind transfers.

BlackRock alone has converted over $3B of physical Bitcoin into $IBIT shares, while Bitwise and Galaxy see growing demand.

These “portfolio trades” let investors swap their Bitcoin for ETF shares, retaining exposure while gaining TradFi perks like collateral use, loans, and easier estate planning.

It marks a major shift: whales once financially off-grid are now embracing Wall Street’s convenience, security, and legitimacy.

Let's go! #clockworkpi #console #raspberrypi

Good afternoon

test post from damus notedeck

And 7 IDF soldiers expired... what a fuckin morning.

JUST-IN: IMF raises concern over Pakistan‘s #Bitcoin mining power plans. 🇵🇰