Embrace the suck, do hard things.
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🕯️ GO 🕯️
🕯️ BRONCOS 🕯️
🕯️ GO 🕯️
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Yuge Broncos supporter today! Baltimore here, would love to see the Texans at home rather than travel to miserable Buffalo next week
Those who’ve been in #Bitcoin long enough understand that we are all part of the greatest accumulation race in human history. At the same time, Bitcoin’s short history has shown that patience is often rewarded and if you simply played the game by always being on zero fiat, you would have ended up leaving a significant sum of sats on the table. This is why as a Bitcoiner with a strong desire to not try and time pico tops or get shaken out at the bottom, holding some fiat and scaling up and down my DCA according to Bitcoin’s relative expensiveness has made the most sense for me.
My preferred measure of Bitcoin’s relative expensiveness is what I refer to as Bitcoin’s Heat Index. It is a measure of Bitcoin’s weekly typical price (avg. of high, low, and closing) relative to its 200-week volume weighted average price (200W VWAP). In this measure, the 200W VWAP can be thought of as the long-term hodler’s average price, or a proxy for a potential price floor. A Heat Index of zero implies that Bitcoin’s weekly typical price has never been lower in its history relative its 200W VWAP, and conversely a heat index of 100 implies that Bitcoin’s typical price has never been higher in its history relative to its 200W VWAP. The simple strategy is for my DCA to scale lower as Heat Index goes up, and scale higher as Heat Index goes down.
Instead of using some sort of log regression, power law, or stock to flow model which I find to be dubious at best in terms of ability to understand near-term expensiveness of current price, this strategy also does not even attempt to project price into the future. It utilizes Bitcoin’s dampening volatility and historical price data to set lower and upper bounds for current price, and then measures what percent of the time the ratio of Price/200W VWAP is higher or lower than the current one, to determine Bitcoin’s relative expensiveness.
Always room for improvement but ESG dead + DEI rapidly dying is wildly BULLISH
Watch nostr: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 CEO nostr:nprofile1qyx8wumn8ghj7cnjvghxjmcpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqz9thwden5te0dehhxarj9ekkjmr0w5hxcmmvqyd8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn0wfskuem9wp5kcmpwv3jhvqgswaehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5q3wamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwvd6hyun9de6zuenedyq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7qgcwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8xmn0wf6zuum0vd5kzmqqyrymr8lu6slx5herk0f8zpkwr8j26t0cnwssx8w5v9l3kkg7zzyk2k8nsq6 unbox the new Blockstream Jade Plus bitcoin hardware wallet. Shipping starts today!
Yah but… what on earth is “virtual” secure element, bruv?
Lol people are mad at nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a for calling Rolexes shitcoins on twitter.
As a Rolex enjoyer I have to say, they are absolutely shitcoins. 
Especially when they can’t distract you every 30 seconds in a business meeting with the live price of Bitcoin
There’s a special place in hell for the self-dubbed gurus on X that are publicly bearish, steer their subscribers to go long, and then qualify that their content is for entertainment only. Drain the swamp already
You gonna mute her simps too? 😆
nostr:note1raeuc303ps4td95r0pv353t74yfn7r2mpklrv9ujrc4qfcjrazlq9hu4vv
True the minimum deposit is $100, but once the USD is in you can stack as little or as $1, and the rest earns sat-denominated interest
Goals so far for 2025:
Stack some #Bitcoin every single day, no exceptions. Simple but historically easier said than done for me.
Reach 1,250 miles running while incorporating strength training (hit 1,000 miles en route to dropping 37 lbs and getting under 20% body fat in 2024)
Bitcoin weekly price metrics, January 5, 2025 (Block Ht. 878,012):
Weekly Typical Price = $96,198
200W VWAP = $38,236
Current Epoch VWAP = $72,821
Current Heat Index = 79
Heat Index 0 price = $24,409
Heat Index 50 price = $60,214
Heat Index 100 price = $316,683
Pi Cycle Top Ratio = 0.61
When family, friends, coworkers tell me they’re late to #Bitcoin, I tell them I was late to $1,000 bitcoin when I smash bought my first sats at $3,800
Bitcoin crossed…
100k sats per USD in 2013
10k sats per USD in 2017
1k sats per USD in 2024
Cent-sat parity is coming sooner than any of us can imagine, and I’m absolutely not ready for it. Must. Stack. Harder.
Nostr newb here - really dig the vibe. Wasn’t there for it, but imagining this is what pre-$1,000 Bitcoin Twitter felt like