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Kevin's Bacon
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Natural Law Anarchist 🏴 | Bitcoin Noderunner and Miner 🧡 | Aristotelian | Student of Nature | Highly Sensitive Person | High IQ Retard | Austrian Economist | Autodidact | Polymath | Selfish Prick | Excellent Source of Protein and Triglycerides Intellectual honesty is key. Consent is king. Chaos is self-regulating. Authority of any man over another is necessarily a fiction.

I don't care who you are, it is in your self interest to be pro-bitcoin. This is quite nearly a universal fact of life.

Now THAT'S financial engineering!!

I suggest using put options rather than a naked short, in case they add bitcoin and become a worthwhile company. The puts become worthless but you still have the stock and any other long positions.

Learning more about opcodes and the various proposed covenant solutions. How the fuck does anyone serious about this topic think that recursive covenants are not dangerous?

omg I just thought my note was someone else's reply. I'm tired jeez don't mind me

Those guys are fine, I like them. Anyone who's against that kind of thing isn't a real anarchist, "ancap" or not. There are dipshits in every movement who are inconsistent or toxic, usually both. Some communities are completely overrun with it. The reddit ancaps are not representative of the whole population of ancaps, and the specifically inconsistent ancaps are even less so.

I am not as familiar with ancoms outside of social media, but the same principle holds. The vast majority of supposed anarcho-communists I've talked to, including ones in person, were closed minded fools or open minded people being told by closed minded fools in yheor community not to talk to outsiders.

No such thing as stealing a copyright! 🤙🏴

I don't think you understand the landscape that well. As an ancap I thought ancoms would be on my side, since my whole thing is just anarchy, just voluntary everything. They're not open to even talking. Most of them are extremely closedminded, some just misled. Those closed minded ones create the divide. Try reaching out to one about this. You'll see.

We're all retarded. For some, it just shows more easily 🤣

Saw this earlier today. Awesome. Saylor is the patron saint of adoption.

These localized monopolies would of course be limited by the competition bitcoin forces into being, so state mining and financing operations will still be able to coerce and inflate, but within tighter limits, bearing a more immediate and direct cost. Rather than the whole world upholding a coercive state enterprise like the United States, it would be only the statist nationals of the region in question upholding the system, since Bitcoin will be the ever present settlement layer for alternatives.

That's my thoughts anyway. Now I really want to read this book!

Replying to Avatar vnprc

I just finished reading Bitcoin Mining Economics by Daniel Frumkin. It's a good read! My biggest takeaway is that large mining farms are the Ghost of Bitcoin Past. Convertible debt offerings to buy bitcoin are the Ghost of Bitcoin Present. Smaller, more distributed mining is the Ghost of Bitcoin Future. Here's why.

Large mining operations are simply not profitable to run on a bitcoin standard. They never have been. After you spend all the capital to buy machines, site hosting, cooling infrastructure, and power purchase agreements (PPAs) you start your business of accumulating bitcoin deep in the red. In order to reach net positive profits you have to dig out of this debt hole AND earn a profit on top of it.

But ASICs depreciate rapidly and network difficulty continually explodes upward so mining farms are working against a very significant headwind. They are racing to accumulate a bitcoin stockpile before their investment depreciates. Frumkin runs the numbers, it almost never works out in real terms. You pretty much always get to keep more bitcoin in the long run by simply buying and holding with that upfront capital.

So why are there so many large mining farms? Because of fiat debt financing models. If you can get someone else to loan you the dollars to build out a farm you can win in the long run thanks to Gresham's Law.

It's the same fiat game every intelligent investor with an appetite for risk is playing. Get as much fiat denominated debt at the best terms possible that you can service without defaulting. Use that money to accumulate assets that increase in value. Denominate your liabilities in a depreciating unit of account and transfer all your wealth into appreciating assets. This is how the Cantillionaires benefit from the money printer. It's a story older than bitcoin, but the strategy is turbocharged with bitcoin's unbelievably rapid price appreciation.

This model has worked for 10 years with mining farms because the big money was too stupid to just buy and hold bitcoin. They weren't comfortable with this risky new asset. They wanted to see a business model with cashflow, financial prospectus, and, most importantly, assets to hold as collateral.

That's all changing now. Saylor has upended the model. Now, even mining farms are skipping the mining part and jumping straight to the Saylor strategy. Today Riot, operator of the largest mining farm in the world, announced they are raising half a billion dollars. Are they investing in ASICs? More mining sites? Research and development? lol not a chance. They are buying bitcoin. The dumb money phase is over. Smart money wins from here on out.

What does this mean for the mining industry? I don't have a crystal ball but I think a good educated guess is that the largest bitcoin mining farms will stop getting larger. The business of paying for electricity solely to mine bitcoin is going away. Bitcoin mining will enter an era where the only profitable way to mine is to make use of it's positive externalities: exhaust heat, demand response, and stranded energy.

The future is putting an ASIC in every water heater and HVAC unit. ASICs in every windmill and solar panel. ASICs on every oil well flare stack. ASICs on every new nuclear plant, but only until demand ramps up and a higher paying customer displaces them.

The declining block subsidy will reinforce this trend. As mining becomes less profitable, only the miners who don't rely on mining profits will survive.

In a nutshell: decentralization is coming. I am so fucking here for it.

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This big takeaway was my assessment as well. I've thought for a little while now:

Publicly listed bitcoin mining corporations that do not hold Bitcoin will underperform and die out soon. Then the ones that don't also delve into bitcoin finance or do something with their bitcoin holdings to amplify returns or shareholder value. Then those will face difficult competition in the broad market as no one has a monopoly on the production of Bitcoin or the kind of financing they will do, barring a localized monopoly in the form of government central banks that are backed by Bitcoin (a likely future for many regions). Mining has no other possible future but to become broadly distributed and decentralized.

Pretty much yeah, from a UX point of view. Every action I take works perfectly, if I can get to the action. It's very cumbersome to get to do what I'm trying to do and to even understand what everything means when first introduced to the alby ecosystem, and not only because it is in a transitional state.