Feels like a shitcoin.

Was it pre-mined? Is it proof of work?

Genuinely curious what problem it is attempting to solve.

GM fellow bitcoiners.

The fine for people using VPNs to access it is crazy.

And the judge really does look like a comic book villain.

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A Brazilian justice just ordered Apple and Google to ban not only X but also any VPN app. There’s also a $10k/day fine for any person using a VPN to access X. Unbelievable.

Americans: “oh, joy! Monday is a holiday! Finally, a three-day weekend! I’ll probably still answer emails on Monday though just to be safe.”

Literally all of Europe: “we have 12 holidays this week and after that I’ll be on vacation for two months. If you contact me about work I will report you to the authorities.”

Yes thank you! Reset and rebooted!!! 🙌

Banning X only affects influencers. That's why I think it's really cool. Regular people don't use X. They don't lose anything.

WhatsApp on the other hand... 😱

Yes, he just needs an excuse to ban WhatsApp as well.

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

I also sometimes fail! Like when I started an executive role in Web3 thinking it was my dream job & it ended up being a nightmare! Yet I held on 🙄🙄🙄 and my health & wellbeing went down hill faster than a boulder rolling down a steep mountain. ⛰️ 🙀

You can't make more #Bitcoin, but you can make more Bitcoiners!

Gn everyone