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Andrew Gomez
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Writer โœ๏ธ | Activist โœŠ | Swede ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช | #nukeisrael2FreePalestine ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ | i own no content ; take whatever you like ๐Ÿ’–

69,420 hours? That's a long time. 2025 will be my 3rd BTC bull run. All I know for certain is that next year NGU. Me and my miniscule quantity of sats are trembling in patient anticipation ๐Ÿคฃ

It isn't even a coin lol. No Blockchain yet. Palai is a virtual currency given out as a ubi to any one who signs up. Bit like Swift demand, if you're familiar with that..

Palai Basic Income is now live and available for anyone to claim daily. Want to sign up for free?

https://palai.org/en?referrer=andygmz%2B8a17c7e3a-d9b9-40ed-8ef1-e9966c991b2c

Gm. Bitcoiner? This is the way ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘

"And the judge really does look like a comic book villain."

Agreed. Alexandre de Moraes reminds me of the villain from Who Framed Roger Rabbit, #JudgeDoom. #LifeImitatesArt ?

Attagirl! ๐Ÿ‘ ๐Ÿ‘

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"Regular people don't use X. They don't lose anything."

I've been on TwitterX since 2007. Reckon it has been great for catching up on breaking stories in real-time, as well as being invaluable for journalists and activists. But in its present form and mission to be The Sole Source Of Truth on the web, it won't be long before it is taken down by those who wish us to continue to be blissfully ignorant and clueless.

This is mainly why I'm on Nostr now. My expectations for Nostr are high.

Vitor, is it possible for a Nostr client like #Amethyst to offer the same functionality/feature set as TwiiterX Premium? I mean the enhanced formatting options, ability to edit posts/notes, etc. If so, that could be a compelling reason for folks to ditch the bird site and move over to Nostr. Mull it over , please? ๐Ÿค” ๐Ÿ˜‰

Soon, folks. Soon....

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

Replying to Avatar walker

nostr:npub1hu3hdctm5nkzd8gslnyedfr5ddz3z547jqcl5j88g4fame2jd08qh6h8nh and I are rewatching LOST after many years and we both just realized that Toranaga sama is in it.

Now, I would like to see a LOST x SHOGUN crossover episode.

That is all.

Loved the James Clavell novel, it's one of my all-time favourite books

Shลgun https://g.co/kgs/cx4T5ig

Sounds like fun...

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Twitter's algorithm shadow banned me. Because it thought all my posts sucked.