Hiking at Jackson Hole this morning and ran into this!

JUST IN: "Bitcoin CRASHES 8% after man drove a bicycle into the rear of a car"

- is as good a headline as any other.

Sent the following to Katy Gallagher, Jim Chalmers and my local MP.

Won't matter and won't make a difference, yet it made me feel better. Stacking Sats is more effective and efficient, though sometimes I feel a need to "rage against the machine". 😡🤣😂🧡

Here's the email message sent:

----start message----

I’m writing to express my concern about the aged pension asset test thresholds, which I believe unfairly disadvantage non-homeowners.

Currently, a couple who owns their home can have up to $481,500 in assets before their pension is affected, while a non-homeowner couple can have $739,500 which is a difference of $258,000. This implies that homeownership is being “valued” at $258,000 for the purposes of the pension test.

In reality, most homes in Australia, even modest ones, are worth far more than that. Yet this significant equity is completely exempt from assessment. Meanwhile, non-homeowners, who often face higher living costs due to rent and have no long-term housing security, are penalised if they’ve saved a similar amount in liquid assets.

This doesn’t seem equitable or reflective of the real cost of living for renters. In effect, the system rewards property wealth while punishing those who may have missed out on homeownership due to life circumstances beyond their control.

I’d appreciate your explanation on how this policy is justified and whether there are any plans to review this clear imbalance.

If I wanted to get this email to someone who could make a real difference with regards to this inequity, who would I be best to address?

Thank you for your time.

---end message----

Buying at the top of every cycle works great. Saylor says he’ll be buying the top forever for a reason.

Even if you bought 1 BTC at the top of every cycle, you’d have turned $90,000 into $470,000.

A 429% gain by being consistently wrong with the worst timing imaginable.

The cost of 4 Bitcoin from Nailing the Top - $90K.

Value today $476,000.

ROI = 429% aka 5.3x

I feel sad. I just "gave up" on two friends (not as friends of course, just in trying to orange pill them).

I sent them this message & the 2 images attached:

----start of message---

I've been wanting to help you both to understand Bitcoin. 🥹 I've deliberately been ignoring your hints for 4 years. I'll take those hints now and stop.

The extent of corruption and blatant theft from citizens which is incentivised by the fiat system, will become self evident to everyone soon enough. 🧡

Bitcoin is not about becoming rich, it's about protecting what we've already earned - in the first truly hard money the world has ever known - plus it's about separating money from state, to get back control over our savings and expended energy.

Bitcoin ends the debt based system of fiat and stops its necessary endless consumerism to save what we have left of our planet. 🌏

See you on Friday 25th. 🧡🧡🧡

----end of message---

GM

Fun ChatGPT income question that I asked today... 🧡✨ Mind you, this does assume that I will live to be somewhat older than 100 and my husband a bit older than 110. 😂

Question that I asked ChatGPT:

Assuming Bitcoin appreciates at 30% per year, how much BTC would someone need by end of 2028 to fund a 30-year weekly income starting at $2000 per week (in AUD), increasing by 7% per year?

Here's ChatGPT answer:

The correct amount of Bitcoin needed by the end of 2028 is approximately 3.61 BTC to fund the 30-year weekly income starting at AUD $2000, increasing 7% annually, assuming Bitcoin appreciates at 30% per year and BTC price is AUD $162,272 at end of 2028.

Then I confirmed with ChatGPT, asking the following:

So, based on our conversation which was: Question:Assuming Bitcoin appreciates at 30% per year, how much BTC would someone need by end of 2028 to fund a 30-year weekly income starting at $2000 per week (in AUD), increasing by 7% per year? Here's it's answer:The correct amount of Bitcoin needed by the end of 2028 is approximately 3.61 BTC to fund the 30-year weekly income starting at AUD $2000, increasing 7% annually, assuming Bitcoin appreciates at 30% per year and BTC price is AUD $162,272 at end of 2028. THEN: AUD$2000 Bitcoin could be sold/used every week, gradually reducing the capital to zero not until 1 January 2059. Is that right?

ChatGPT answered:

Yes, that’s exactly right.

To recap:

•    You start with about 3.61 BTC at the end of 2028.

•    BTC price at that time is assumed to be around AUD $162,272 per BTC.

•    Each week starting 2029, you withdraw AUD $2000 (increasing by 7% annually).

•    Because Bitcoin appreciates at 30% per year, the capital grows faster than the withdrawals increase.

•    Selling BTC weekly to cover those AUD withdrawals means your BTC holdings gradually decrease over 30 years, hitting near zero only by the start of 2059.

This scenario assumes:

•    Bitcoin price growth of 30% annually continues steadily.

•    Weekly withdrawals grow 7% annually.

•    No extra deposits or fees.

•    You convert BTC to AUD at the prevailing price each withdrawal.

So yes, starting with roughly 3.6 BTC in late 2028 will fund your described withdrawals for 30 years under those assumptions.

NOTE:

We need to remember of course that currently the Australian government taxes Capital Gains Tax on that.

In response to the latter, ChatGPT answered:

Great! Let’s estimate the extra BTC needed upfront to cover Capital Gains Tax (CGT), so you still have a net AUD $2000 weekly income after tax.

Step 1: Estimate the effective tax rate on withdrawals

•    CGT applies on the capital gain portion of your BTC sale.

•    With a 50% discount (holding BTC >12 months), only half the gain is taxable.

•    Assuming all withdrawals are gains (worst case), and marginal tax rate is 19% (lowest above tax-free threshold), tax on the total withdrawal is:

So about 9.5% tax on each withdrawal.

Step 2: Calculate gross withdrawal needed

You want net AUD $2000 after tax, so:

Step 3: Calculate total present value of gross withdrawals (instead of $2000 weekly)

Recalculate the total present value of withdrawals, now with weekly income starting at AUD $2208.80 instead of $2000, growing at 7% annually.

Step 4: Divide by BTC price at end 2028 to get BTC units needed

I’ll do the math for you now.

To calculate the extra Bitcoin needed upfront to cover Capital Gains Tax (CGT) so you still receive a net weekly income of AUD $2000 after tax, we proceed stepwise:

Step 1: Effective tax rate on withdrawals

•    With a 50% CGT discount and a 19% marginal tax rate, your effective tax on withdrawals is approx 9.5%.

Step 2: Adjust gross weekly withdrawal

•    To net $2000 after tax, your gross withdrawal should be:

Step 3: Recalculate present value of withdrawals

•    Using this new gross withdrawal, total present value of 30 years’ withdrawals will be:

Final result:

•    You need roughly 3.99 BTC at the end of 2028 to cover weekly withdrawals starting at AUD $2000 net after tax, increasing 7% annually, assuming BTC appreciates 30% per year and AUD $162,272 per BTC.

Concludes:

So, CGT raises your initial BTC capital needed from about 3.61 BTC to roughly 4 BTC to maintain the full net $2000 weekly income.