If we were to pretend that we are in the future, looking back on today, we’d conclude that the behaviour of European bureaucrats, seemingly acting in complete disregard of the will of their own people, is the perfect intro to a violent revolution and retribution by the people.

By the early 22nd century, books about how the boomer generation killed western civilization, out of pure selfishness, apathy and virtue signaling, will form a genre of its own

The real issue society is facing, in the eyes of these tyrants, is that they’ve lost control over the narrative. They think that things will fall in place again once they regain it, but fail to see this basically requires going full DPRK in our highly (and now much more informed about the true nature of government) digitised societies.

You get a Steve Irwin popup and through your speakers it says

oi mate, you got a license for that you fecking cunt

I’m taking my precautions on x

How I view markets right now, super high level:

The 2010s were a deflation-reflation regime: we saw private deleveraging, austerity, China’s slowdown, peak globalisation, QE.

The 2020s so far are really the opposite: fiscal dominance, QT, remilitarisation, supply constraints, tight labour markets, reshoring, that sort of thing.

So now we kind of go back and forth between inflation and disinflation (goldilocks).

This regime can of course change any time, but only if the source of inflation flips from supply/fiscal to demand.

For that we need either 1) a demand shock (credit event, labour-market break, sovereign stress), or 2) forced fiscal tightening.

The biggest tail risk I see, outside of geopolitical risks spiraling, is a global sovereign debt scare, something like the eurozone crisis in 2011-12 but with global contagion across developed markets.

For Bitcoin, the current environment is still structurally favourable imo.

Fiscal dominance + unstable real yields + rising term premia help it (or rather hurt the dollar). BTC thrives when the credibility of sovereign balance sheets is questioned.

Liquidity remains constrained for now, but the end of Fed balance-sheet runoff improves liquidity conditions.

If the current regime breaks via a demand shock, BTC sells off sharply with other risk assets. But once policy makers respond (QE, rate cuts, fiscal), BTC recovers first and fastest too.

A sovereign-debt scare meanwhile would be chaotic in the short run but structurally bullish. The more investors doubt DM fiscal sustainability, the stronger the long-horizon bid for BTC becomes. Volatility up, long-term credibility of fiat down.

And if we stay in this regime, I expect BTC to crawl up. So all signs are green imo.

Wall Street’s “crypto” suits aren’t even real suits. In my experience they’re usually either fallen-up IT staff, or fallen-down failed equity portfolio managers and such types. Can’t be taken seriously.

Ah, the classic “age assurance” system. To be conveniently morphed into a “social credit assurance” system with one or two parameter tweaks when the time is right. The WEF boys have penetrated us again from their mountain lair 👏

I keep my circle small

You need people with a Bitcoin mentality to get something like this off the ground tbh. Shitcoin vibes won’t carry it. They’ll probably create a shostr or something once we near 1bn users

Obviously that will happen at some point. But it will keep growing and they’ll introduce “safe” government Nostr relays plus apps. Just a repeat of the whole Bitcoin as a free thing -> KYC and on/off ramp throttling and chainalysis -> ETF timeline. Some end up on the cucked version of it but the thing itself ensures freedom by simply existing

This is not X, stop with the agitation propaganda already. Most of us might not exactly be fans of communist China, but like someone else said, I’ve never spoken to a single Chinese who was aware of these systems.

When yield curve control

No on feels as suppressed as a tradfi decision maker who wants to say shit on social media but has 700 compliance people breathing down his neck about appropriate social media use every day

Always thought people like this (and similar specimens) might be in on some elaborate psyop to slow down the adoption of bitcoin at the margins. Because if we all go in at once, chaos ensues

Over the years I’ve started like 10 twitter accounts. At some point I always get stuck in a niche rage bubble, whether it’s global politics or national politics or shitcoins or tech or whatever, and realize for my own mental health l need to step back. Half year later I make another one and I end up in another rage bubble. Repeat

Including shitcoiner physiognomy and all, a complete specimen.

I think people often see finance as this well oiled machine that knows exactly how to manipulate the world to make money from it.

In reality this sort of thing from Bloomberg is probably literally disgruntled boomer journalists that hate on it because it’s associated with the “opposite side” politically and because they simply missed out

They’re power tripping, abusing what little power they have in the world to literally troll it