Avatar
DataNostrum
4aa4d22440770429fa745b674fab7e46ed267f36a1abae6ff4e8d26eb65b7f52
Stumbling around

Do I understand correctly that #nostr is not suitable as a record of *when* a note was published? i.e. that you can publish a note today and backdate it to last Thursday or to 700BC?

#asknostr #nostrdev

I always write stuff down, because I assume that future me is a moron and won't remember anything.

But I never read what past me wrote, because I assume that past me was a moron and didn't know anything.

Present me is probably the biggest moron.

I knew it

nostr:note1m3k7gl60jd4t776hsacqtzfvfdm7x6fak3h9wja4ta8qmjc9ex3swudjeh

Replying to Avatar MAstr

Thank you nostr:npub1f2jdyfzqwuzzn7n5tdn5l2m7gmkjvlek5x46uml5arfxadjm0afq5xam7y

believe it or not. Your the first one that could at least describe an advantage of it.

Just to really recap an understand.

The hardware wallet is dooing the same as if i was using a client to stack sats, then backup it to a Usb drive ann write down my keys somewhere else and delete the Client from my online device?

Is that right?

But in this case i still have to trust a software and a hardware developer.

If you used a software wallet, your private key has been on your computer, and hence was potentially exposed to a hacker. With a hardware wallet, the key never leaves the wallet itself.

A hardware wallet is also very useful for making transactions. How do you make a transaction with your private key on paper? You can't, you have to re-enter it into your computer (again exposing it to hackers). The hardware wallet allows you to sign a transaction while not exposing the private key.

Yes, you have to trust the hardware maker, but the good ones are as open/verifiable as possible.

The core property of #nostr is that it is a permissionless protocol; any relay may join. (Analogous to Bitcoin's decentralization). In this light, banning relays would mean fundamental failure.

I don't think privacy is a central element, our data is out in the open, even moreso than when posting on mainstream platforms because there it is behind closed doors (they have an incentive to protect it in order to better & exclusively monetize it). However, the fact that anyone can create an nsec/npub without any kyc does benefit privacy.

Success (IMO) means that a significant portion of "public square" conversations are held on nostr

The advantage of a hardware wallet is that it keeps your private key offline (well, except for Ledger's planned update, that they walked back afterwards IIRC). In principle it does not expose the private key to your computer, which is good because your computer can be hacked

It matters because if SHA-256 is broken it means it's breakable, which means that a hostile actor (e.g. Fed) could make all the accumulated Proof-of-Work worthless in an instant. I think we should be using multiple hashing algorithms

We don't know if SHA-256 hasn't been broken, because a highly profitable way to monetize that knowledge would be to silently mine bitcoin at near zero cost.

There is also trust in the hardness of SHA-256, which is not mathematically proven

How likely is it that Satoshi would have built the ultimate timechain, and chosen not to use it to reveal his true identity at some point in the future (probably post-mortem)?

#Bitcoin

Put another shrimp on the Barbie!

Zap a ton? Zapatron? #Zapathon

True, although supply is capped and demand seems to be increasing.

At the end of the day, I buy it because I know I can't be inflated into oblivion, and this fundamentally feels right to me. The gamble is whether the rest of the world will see it the same way (and when).

People who started in 2014 or 2018 felt the same for 3-4 years

When in doubt, zoom out. This is sats per USD, in log scale. Maybe it's bonkers but the other side looks worse

Replying to Avatar Dylan LeClair

You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself.

However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from 1962

Notice anything?

The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power.

Quite the massive difference.

However, there's more nuance to consider:

1) Let's separate the data into distinct eras,

From 1962 to start of 2009:

- Average annual inflation: 4.40%

- Average 1y yields: 6.22%

- Average difference: +1.82%

Real gains in purchasing power.

From 2009 to Present:

- Average annual inflation: 2.34%

- Average 1y yields: 1.00%

- Average difference: -1.34%

Real losses in purchasing power.

2) The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together only went back to 1962) in the post war period.

3) Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat doomers really just delusional?

In my view:

- Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP is exploding as the world industrializes.

- With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process.

The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it.

When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind.

Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it significantly.

Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur.

Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global governments can mask their insolvency.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.

I didn't realize 1y treasury yields were that high. Of course, you should also take into account that this gets chopped down some by federal income tax.

If you already have two users A) 70% and B) 30%, and then you add a new user C to the mix, what should the config change to?