GN

FWIW (not much)...

Regarding #bitcoin price action...

Based on past cycles and current liquidity conditions...

I am giving each of the next 14 months (from September 2024 through October 2025) approximately a 67% chance of being a green monthly candle in US dollar terms.

It's all speculative nonsense, of course. But it's fun to imagine what could happen over the next 4-5 quarters.

🐂

For a long time I thought investing in our era was hard and now I think it might be the easiest thing ever.

Long real food

Short fake food

Long hard money

Short soft money

Long decentralized tech

Short centralized tech

Long science

Short scientism

Basically just find a 20th century institution that’s in decay and short it while longing its replacement.

A good way to sell books, imo:

nostr:note1q7l923v33962uz8uekcjcngt2n4h8ywm6dlsfg3q8cx3y8cwnhhsk9vcae

What’s the best way to tip a waiter / waitress in Sats?

I feel it’s bad form to have them create a wallet on the spot — especially if they have other tables.

I think far more #bitcoin are lost than people realize, meaning Bitcoin is even more scarce than people realize, and the vast majority of people still don’t even realize they need Bitcoin…

Anyway, goodnight.

Simply Bitcoin was banned on YT today, I always knew the day would come and have been mentally preparing myself for years.

I can’t wait for the day that you can livestream to the masses via decentralized protocols rather than centralized platforms.

I’ve put in so many hours into not only making content but also making sure we follow the “community guidelines” on YouTube and we were still banned.

I’m bullish on the future of Nostr and I will continue to advocate for it until it reaches a critical mass where you don’t have to rely on centralized platforms in order to garner sufficient amount of views to run a media company.

Bitcoin or slavery.

Nostr or slavery.

An update on *liquidity* flows...

OBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of chart) continues to be generally rangebound (chopping sideways: crab-like) since all the way back in 2021!

OPINION #1: US-based risk assets tend to follow US net liquidity over time. Based on this data, I would continue to expect choppy sideways (crab-like) price action for US mid cap, small cap, and micro cap stocks until the trend changes. -- If these equities make overly bearish or overly bullish moves in the short-term, one could consider making a short-term contrarian trade. 🦀

OBSERVATION #2: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY (bottom half of chart) has officially broken out to the upside of its three-year choppy sideways range, and is resuming its longer term trend ever up-and-to-the-right. This longer term trend will continue until the dollar dies (decades from now).

OPINION #2: In the near-term, this resumption of increasing global M2 money supply is bullish for global assets... currently including megacap technology stocks and, of course, bitcoin. Based on past precedent, I continue to expect weak bitcoin price action throughout the month of August, giving HODLers a beautiful opportunity to stack relatively cheap sats in the setting of rising global M2. -- I do not believe this bargain will go unnoticed for much longer, with the next major bitcoin bull market beginning sometime between September and December of 2024, and probably lasting until 4Q of 2025.

Hope this helps. Cheers #nostr friends.

As someone who plays Dungeons and Dragons regularly, if I were to participate in a D&D roleplaying livestream, would you watch it?

Like if I play the angsty sorcerer, or the frustrated cleric, or the happy-go-lucky barbarian that has very specific anger triggers, would you find this amusing?

There are a bunch of successful D&D livestreams out there. The best ones are run by theater and voice actor pros.

But what if you had a bunch of public bitcoiners in the event, and most of them are highly charismatic semi-pros, and then some of them like me are autistic but, like, trying our our best as nerds that like the game.

Would you watch that or nah?