Myth #5: Economists, Using Charts or High Speed Computer Models, Can Accurately Forecast the Future
Recorded by the Mises Institute in the mid-1980s, The Mises Report provided radio commentary from leading non-interventionists, economists, and political scientists. In this program, we present another part of "Ten Great Economic Myths". This material was prepared by Murray N. Rothbard.
The problem of forecasting interest rates illustrates the pitfalls of forecasting in general. People are contrary cusses whose behavior, thank goodness, cannot be forecast precisely in advance. Their values, ideas, expectations, and knowledge change all the time, and change in an unpredictable manner. What economist, for example, could have forecast (or did forecast) the Cabbage Patch Kid craze of the Christmas season of 1983? Every economic quantity, every price, purchase, or income figure is the embodiment of thousands, even millions, of unpredictable choices by individuals.
Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal. Forecasters often complain that they can do well enough as long as current trends continue; what they have difficulty in doing is catching changes in trend. But of course there is no trick in extrapolating current trends into the near future. You don't need sophisticated computer models for that; you can do it better and far more cheaply by using a ruler. The real trick is precisely to forecast when and how trends will change, and forecasters have been notoriously bad at that. No economist forecast the depth of the 1981–82 depression, and none predicted the strength of the 1983 boom.
The next time you are swayed by the jargon or seeming expertise of the economic forecaster, ask yourself this question: If he can really predict the future so well, why is he wasting his time putting out newsletters or doing consulting when he himself could be making trillions of dollars in the stock and commodity markets?
Why OceanGate Will SINK Under Lawsuits
OceanGate's Titan submersible caught the attention of the world during its final voyage to the Titanic wreckage when it went missing in late June 2023.
After news broke that it likely experienced a catastrophic implosion, it didn't take long for people to ask about the legal fallout. Can the families sue? What about liability waivers? Here's what you need to know.
No, you want a sheep for lawn mowing and a goat for weed maintenance.
We just learned that some family members had an adjustable rate mortgage. They bought at historically low interest rates and just refinanced with a fixed rate loan now that interest rates have more than doubled. It's astonishing how bad some people's financial sense can be.
You call that a #zapathon?
#zapathon
Predicting The Consequences of CBDC's
Utopians never run out of pipe dreams. Whether it be "vaccine passports," or "carbon zero" or "you will own nothing, and be happy," the tyrannical ideas are always being broadcast. This is why those who cherish freedom must always be vigilant. The schemes just keep on coming. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC's) are another dystopian idea that, fortunately, many people already strongly reject. It's not hard to see why CBDC's would not only be unworkable, but would be a total disaster to humanity.
The Impact of Falling M2 on Prices and Jobs
The Mises Institute's Executive Editor Ryan McMaken joins Bob to discuss his latest article, in which Ryan spells out the state of the M2 money supply and possible implications for consumer prices and an impending recession.
An interesting video to watch during or after the #zapathon.
bulls
I think most people who have savings accounts only keep them for liquidity reasons. I don't know anyone who really use them for savings.
Gotta run, but I zapped a couple early birds.
Happy #zapathon!
How US States Could Pave the Way for Currency Competition | Allain de la Motte
The fiat US dollar, while still the world's "reserve" currency, is being imperiled by reckless actions by monetary authorities. Other countries are taking notice—and action.
https://mises.org/wire/how-us-states-could-pave-way-currency-competition
False
I wish people would reflect on why all their favorite heroes are constantly strapped and ready for action.
Get Woke, Go Broke: How National Boycotts Are Indeed Crushing ESG Companies https://www.zerohedge.com/political/get-woke-go-broke-how-national-boycotts-are-indeed-crushing-esg-companies
Even with 100% rebates, Bud Light sales are down almost 30% year-over-year.
I love that people are discovering the power of consumer sovereignty.
Biden: ‘Putin is Clearly Losing the War in Iraq’
From Infowars
Puppet president suffers another embarrassing cognitive lapse.
Jun 28th 2023 7:56am EDT
Source Link: https://www.infowars.com/posts/biden-putin-is-clearly-losing-the-war-in-iraq/
Internet Archive Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20230628170527/https://www.infowars.com/posts/biden-putin-is-clearly-losing-the-war-in-iraq/
Share, promote & comment with Nostr: https://dissentwatch.com/boost/?noback=1&boost_post_id=569644
At least you can say that he hasn't gained any territory in Iraq.
How Much Money To Moon Bitcoin?
"In this video, I discuss how capital inflows affect the price of Bitcoin.
Contrary to popular opinion, you don't need inflows of $500 billion in order to double the market cap of a $500 billion asset like Bitcoin. In fact, you may require far smaller inflows, since price is set at the margin and the average Bitcoiner is not willing to sell his Bitcoin at any price.
The real question is not "how much money does it take to moon Bitcoin?"
The real question is "how desperate will people become as they see very high and long-lasting inflation worldwide?"
How much monopoly paper funny money will people want to convert to scarce digital gold nuggets?
The answer is 100%
Every last cent of fiat will be seeking a home in Bitcoin before we're done.
Bitcoin is the apex predator of money and will consume everything."
“Nothing to See Here” New OIG Report Concludes Jeffery Epstein Killed Himself
A new OIG report claims a detailed investigation found Jeffrey Epstein hung himself.
Kim's description of the official account is hilarious.