What's a good DCA alternative to Swan?

This is a little too much euphoria too quickly imo.

That said I’m not not bullish lol I feel the same way as everyone else.

Likely we dump hard though between here and the halving.

I'm not on Instagram or Soundcloud.

I use Twitter for my macro/finance talk and engaging with that long-lasting network effect and all my friends there.

All of my other random stuff is on Nostr. Pictures, music, serious talk for serious people that are on Nostr, etc.

#instagramr

#tunestr

#philosophyr

Have you connected a Lightning wallet, Craic?

I'm currently unable to zap this post...

The 30-year Treasury auction today went terribly. Huge price tail; basically a half-failed bond auction. There hasn’t been an auction that bad in many years. Some people chalked it up to a cyberattack on China’s largest bank, which interfered with their ability to do Treasury transactions, while others contested that this was the main issue and instead argued it was a lack of demand for duration. Treasury market liquidity is really weak.

And then like an hour later Jerome Powell was interrupted in an IMF talk by eco-protestors, and he dropped the f-bomb on a hot mic.

Fun stuff.

Most people have a strong urge to be a part of something bigger than themselves. Not all, but most.

It could be a tribe, gang, nation, religion, political ideology, technological ideology, military hierarchy, artisan guild, their own family, or something else. A set of virtues that they adhere to, that stirs them up emotionally, and that even in certain contexts they would put their career or reputation or life on the line to defend.

When trying to understand other people, it helps to understand what bigger context drives you, and what bigger context drives those you are interacting with.

Always try to ascertain, “what bigger context drives this person, if any?”

A gave a talk at the New Orleans Investment Conference the other day. At 50 years and counting, it is the longest continually-running investment conference in the country, and possibly the world.

It is diminished from its heyday due to broader competition and online investment media, but it has a certain air to it. Ayn Rand, Ron Paul, Margaret Thatcher, Alan Greenspan, Milton Friedman, Gerald Ford, and Steve Forbes have spoken at it, among many others. It is mostly a boomer/gold/resource/conservative/libertarian conference, and gets the best from that crowd, but otherwise is not huge. The guy who has run it for decades took it over long ago from the original founder, and he wants to freshen it up and modernize it a bit and throw some hand grenades into his own conference, so he invited me to talk. He is a gold guy, a resource guy, an old-school conservative, and he likes bitcoin and wishes he bought it earlier. He's open-minded, objective, and growth-oriented.

My talk was "Broken Money, Broken World".

-The first theme was that there are 160+ siloed fiat currencies. I used Egypt as my main example, and held up a physical Egyptian pound and said this is basically a national casino chip; it has very low salability outside of Egypt, similar to how a casino chip has very low salability outside of the casino. The 105 million people who live there are trapped in a fiat matrix of 20% annual money supply growth, like a treadmill that they have to keep up with in terms of their wages, price increases, rent increases, and so forth to avoid being diluted, and most can't keep up with that treadmill. And there are dozens of countries like this. I held up a Norwegian krone and said even though this is from a wealthy country, it is still a casino chip because what can I possibly do with it in New Orleans? It's too small and unsalable. This is outdated tech.

-The second theme brought it back to the US. I spoke about how the past four decades had two main trends: rising public debt/GDP and falling interest rates (see included pics below). Developing market currencies suffer while those of us in the US feel that things are stable. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, people rightly freaked out about the debt and deficit. The famous NYC debt clock went up in 1989. Ross Perot ran the most successful independent presidential campaign in the early 1990s on the debt and deficit. That was when interest expense as a % of GDP was at its peak. But what they didn't or couldn't predict, was that the next 30 years would be disinflationary. China opened up to the world. The Soviet Union fell. Western capital was united with Eastern labor and resources. China became a manufacturing hub, which was disinflationary. Russia supplied cheap energy to the German industrial base, which was disinflationary. Interest rates fell structurally, allowing more debt accumulation, and for prices to increase far more slowly than money supply growth. But then we hit zero interest rates, and then we monetized fiscal spending. We're in a new world now; debts and deficits matter again. Those guys from the late 1980s and early 1990s were right but early, and now we are facing some of those consequences. Fiat currencies including the dollar have structural instability.

-The third theme was to bring up again that there are 160+ casino fiat currencies in the world... and that every one of their gates are fucking down. Pre-Bitcoin, the only way to get money in or out of a country was 1) physical ports of entry (typically limited to $10k USD or so worth of cash and gold) or 2) bank wire transfers (highly controlled by local governments). Countries could maintain their little currency bubbles. But Bitcoin and then stablecoins blew that open. You can bring a billion dollars worth of bitcoin through an airport by remembering 12 words, or writing them down and tucking them away in your baggage, or briefly putting them in an encrypted file in the cloud. Infinite value density. Same for stablecoins- tokenized dollars or whatever the market wants in terms of global fiat currency and assets. I can pay a graphic designer in Nigeria with a QR code over a video call or email or DM in bitcoin or stablecoins or whatever she wants. All of this bypasses their currency bubble and goes around their banking system, unless their country wants to be North Korea and cut itself off or get shut off externally from the internet. And I said the investment implications and macro implications of this are massive; it's a new world that, over the long arc of time, breaks all the fiat bubbles.

nostr:note1psj3jgmjksrkxn22vgwncjeugjura8ajhtsnprfu864cktumzxcsv0s2rs

This is the last daylight savings right? Didn’t we get rid of this now? At least in the US?

Good luck with that.

I've been hearing our senate in France discussing day light savings changes since I was 9 years old.

Never went to the floor for a vote is what I heard a few days ago.

My #Nostrasia talk is on Nov 2nd, 11am Tokyo time (main stage). Hope to see you there!

Primal’s Approach to Nostr

- What we do

- How we do it

- Tradeoff analysis

- What’s next for Primal

- Why nostr is going to win

Krugman: “why don’t people realize inflation is fixed?”

My Netflix subscription 👇

Is there an app out there that is like calendly where you can send others a link to book an appointment on your cal, but if someone pays a certain amount of sats they just get access to the calendar too?

UPDATE: From Oct 18 - Oct 25

US net liquidity roughly DECREASED by -$49.6B.

Fed balance sheet: -$25.3B

ORR: -$50.2B

TGA: +$74.5B

OPINION: For the first time in several weeks, the latest weekly results are net negative for risk assets, all things being equal.

Compared to recent weeks, more liquidity has been added to the TGA while less has been withdrawn from the ORR, likely secondary to lesser issuance of short-dated T-bills by the US Treasury.

Net liquidity is still rangebound since April 2022, and is currently sitting near the center of this range.

Still a crab market until something changes... 🔥🦀🔥

Just activated. Took me like almost 24 hours

Have a bad experience with a silent.link ! Says activating and nothing happens 🤬