OBJ looked like the Giants version on that slant to the house TD

QB Comps:

Justin Herbert -- Dan Marino

Josh Allen -- John Elway

Patrick Mahomes -- peak Aaron Rodgers

CJ Stroud -- Joe Montana

Lamar Jackson -- Randall Cunningham

Joe Burrow -- Ben Roethlisberger

good to buy-low, sell high when picking ATS, but it can't be relied on automatically. Complex systems aren't solved so easily.

comp for Stroud is Joe Montana

Stroud is unbelievable

Cincy lucky the Texans turned it over, but Texans converting 3rd and 13 and 3rd and 14s

already survived on a miraculous win by the Browns a few weeks ago, gonna need another. Texans look like the better team

pivoted to CIN in Survivor. Looks like a mistake, as CJ Stroud is carving them up

respect the fake-snap INT. Real QB

Did Rich Eisen just say during the broadcast when the Pats' lineman was getting oxygen on the sideline, "a Blue Velvet-like moment there?"

Week 10 ATS Picks

Last week was pretty good — 4-1 in the Normal entries and 3-2 on the Ugly. My record on the former is 26-18-1 and on the latter 25-18-2. (Actually, I just discovered my second Normal entry is 25-19-1 because last week I must have neglected to change one of the picks when I was writing this column from the hotel. Not the end of the world.)

In any event, here are this week’s picks:

As you can see, these are the same picks. It’s hard enough coming up with five you like some weeks (especially with teams on bye), let alone 10.

I took the Jets because I like buying them low off the blowout loss and selling the Raiders high off their blowout win. The Raiders hosted the worst team in the NFL last week and had the triple dead cat bounce after firing their coach, GM and QB.

The Browns are getting too many points with Deshaun Watson back. The Ravens have killed some good teams of late, but the Browns are a tough divisional rival with a good defense.

The Titans are a tough team that usually shows up, and I like getting them against a Bucs team coming off a dramatic last-minute loss.

I like the Falcons this week after all the Arthur Smith criticism. As a Bijan Robinson owner in three of five leagues, believe me, I get it, but I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s being made out to be, and Kyler Murray could be rusty his first game back.

I’m assuming Ja’Marr Chase plays because with Tee Hggins already out, that would be a problem, but as much as I buy into C.J. Stroud, this is a good sell-high spot after last week’s dramatic win.

I subbed in Cincy for Denver at the last second, so maybe that was a mistake, but while the team that beat up the Chiefs could show up, so might the one that lost to the Dolphins by 50.

The Saints were a bit of a sweat, and the Browns sailed easily, which means most of your pool from last week is still alive. I would have switched to the Browns once Clayton Tune was starting, but I had used them, so I was on the Saints.

Let’s take a look at this week’s ownership:

The Cowboys are at 46 percent, but they’re the easy call if you have them. The disparity between them and everyone else is so wide, it would have to be a good deal higher than that to use them. How much higher? We can actually do the math just for fun.

The Cowboys are -1000 (average of the moneylines) which is about 91 percent (1000/1100) to win. The next closest team is the Bills at around -350 (78%) when you average the lines. That means the Cowboys have a nine percent chance to lose, and the Bills 22, per the market. Twenty-two divided by nine is 2.44. That’s your risk ratio.

In your hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, let’s say the Bills lose and Cowboys win. That knocks out six percent of your pool, leaving 94 alive. Let’s estimate another 14 would be expected to drop on other teams. So there’s 80 left and $1000 (the total buy-in) divided by 80 = $12.50. That’s your equity, should you have the Cowboys in a Cowboys win/Bills lose scenario.

So if we multiply the $12.50 by our risk ratio (2.44), we can figure out how much the break-even equity number is for the added risk of taking the Bills over the Cowboys.

That equals $30.50.

So how many people would need to remain for you to have $30.50 in equity? 1000/30.5 equals roughly 33 people. But remember there are 14 people expected to lose on other teams, so it’s really 47. So the break-even level where you could take the Bills (if you agree with the market odds) is 53 percent.

That’s actually lower than I would have expected, given the disparity in the moneylines, but it’s still higher than 46.

Of course, a lot of people (like me) have used the Cowboys and Bills, so for them this discussion is moot.

I’m leaning Seahawks off the blowout loss to the Ravens over the Bengals, and it’s nice that they’re much lower owned. Remember that week when I faded the Seahawks (who rolled) for the Browns who took five years off my life? Not only did I have a chance to win my pool then and there, but I’m the only one who has the Seahawks available this week as a result.

Of course, they could easily lose, but the moral of the story is the pot-odds fade doesn’t just give you an edge that week, but has the ancillary benefit of getting you out of sync with the rest of your pool, giving you opportunities down the line.

GUESSING THE LINES

I’m still on a heater after going 4-1 on the Normal picks and 3-2 on the Ugly. It’s too bad I got off to a slow start because I’d otherwise be in contention. Then again, it’s a good thing I’m not in contention the one year I missed the SuperContest, which is what I was worried about.

If I try to explain it too much I’ll lose the rhythm, but suffice it to say, there is no method, no metric, no one else’s rankings, no “fade the public,” no nothing. There’s getting in touch with the slate, reading it as best you can and making the picks. And as I’ve said, Guessing The Lines is just part of the discovery process, not a technique for making the picks themselves.

Let’s take a look at Week 10:

I’m way off on a few games, particularly the Browns-Ravens, Texans-Bengals and Packers-Steelers. (The numbers are disparate on Vikings-Saints, but around the zero doesn’t mean much.)

I think the Browns are probably a play, and maybe the Bears. The Texans I like, but not the dramatic way they won. It’s odd to me the Steelers aren’t favored by more — the Packers are terrible, but maybe I’m missing something.

I’m feeling the Lions a little bit against a soft Chargers team with a short week and big win. The Cowboys can name their score against the Giants, but the Giants will try to grind it into the muck. I’m probably laying the wood in Dallas up to 20.

I also like the Jets a little against the Raiders, but it’s a short week and a Sunday night West Coast game.

I’ll revisit on Friday, when I might reject some or all of these initial leans.

MONDAY NIGHT OBSERVATIONS

Thank God for the 40-minute edited version.

I had Zach Wilson going in the Steak League because Kyler Murray wasn’t activated and Jared Goff was on bye. He almost salvaged his night too on that last, garbage-time drive, but C.J. Uzomah couldn’t come down with the TD.

I also had Garrett Wilson who miraculously puts up serviceable numbers every week, despite having Wilson as his QB, but the upside is capped. Finally, I had Quentin Johnston in the Primetime (started as a flex over D’Onta Foreman.) I knew it was a risk against the Jets, but Foreman had split carries evenly last week and was in New Orleans against a stout run defense. I figured Johnston had some upside, but then the Chargers got a kick return TD, and the game-flow was toast. They did hand the ball off to him once, showing they want to get him involved at long last, now that Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer are out. The Chargers aren’t going anywhere this year, and they probably never will.

One thing in which I take solace is Justin Herbert’s stat line. Never start your QBs against the Jets because they have a good defense and don’t generate the offense to make your guy do anything.

Austin Ekeler did nothing, had three drops, but got two short TDs to salvage his day. His owners are probably not in contention at this point anyway.

Keenan Allen got his, despite Herbert having only 136 passing yards. It’s a two-man offense at this point between him and Ekeler.

Breece Hall ran hard, but there wasn’t much room. The Jets offense made the Giants defense look like the 1986 version last week, and the Chargers were the more of the same.

Zach Wilson (QB1) throws a nice ball, and moves well, but just lacks feel for the rush and seems a step slow in his processing. I put some of the blame on the Jets offensive braintrust too, as everything was a drop back in the pocket/shotgun, and there were very few rollouts, read options or anything creative. They need to help him buy time and misdirect the defense somewhat. (Some of the blame also has to fall on those cougars for depleting his vital chi.)

Poor Dalvin Cook. He signed to be a co-starter in an Aaron Rodgers offense with a returning-from-injury Breece Hall, and now he’s an afterthought backup in the Zach Wilson trainwreck.

Of course Cameron Dicker hit a 55-yard field goal. Everyone is Justin Tucker these days.

WEEK 9 OBSERVATIONS

Sometimes you just have to make peace with reality, no matter how much you wish it were otherwise.

The Giants are not a top-31 team this year.

The Daniel Jones era is over. He more or less went down the David Carr career path, and the Giants need to pick a quarterback in next year’s draft, Jones’ contract notwithstanding.

Saquon Barkley will never have the career I had hoped for him. His rookie year will be by far his best, as circumstances and health never again cooperated for him to showcase the extent of his talents over a full season.

Sometimes the truth hurts, but as a Giants fan I have a healthy pain tolerance. (Jets fans are like the guy on PCP the police need to tase 10 times.)

I went 4-1 ATS on my “Normal” picks, running my record to 19-5-1 over the last five weeks. The game I lost? The Saints -7.5 because Blake Grupe couldn’t hit a 47-yard FG, and the Saints got the first down on the penultimate series to run out the clock, rather than settling for the spread-clinching chip shot. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. At least they delievered in Survivor after a bit of a sweat. My “Ugly” picks went 3-2.

Taysom Hill is one hell of a TE, with 52-rushing yards, a passing TD, four catches and a receiving TD. It’s insane the advantage the Saints and Eagles have in short yardage, when other teams (like the Bengals and Chiefs) are passing on 3rd and 4th and 1. (Actually the Saints got stuffed on 4th-and-1 once themselves when for God knows what reasons they let Derek Carr run the sneak instead of Hill.)

D’Onta Foreman is a top-15 pure rusher, but for some reason he was inactive for half the season.

The Dolphins made a run in the second-half, but they mostly just beat up on weak teams and lose to the good ones.

Tua is pretty good, but his concussion history causes him to slide so early on his scrambles he leaves a lot of yards on the table. It’s good to get the ball out of your QB’s hands to protect him, but it’s tough to win with one who can *never* expose himself to contact for extra yards.

Odd the Dolphins kicked the PAT after scoring their second TD to cut the lead to 21-14. Thought Mike McDaniel was Mr. Analytics.

Rashee Rice is the only above average receiver on the Chiefs.

I feel sorry for the celebs (especially Travis Kelce) doing the Pfizer ads. The ignominy will stay with them forever.

The Chiefs called a pass play on third and half a yard, when a first down would have sealed the win, and failed to complete it. As I mentioned, what a huge disadvantage relative to the Eagles who get the first down automatically in those circumstances.

I lost Darren Waller in three leagues and had George Kittle on bye in the other two. So I picked up Cade Otton in two, Hunter Henry in one and Jonnu Smith in the other. Only the Kyle Pitts team suffered as a result, and even he didn’t do that badly.

I’m not going to pile on Arthur Smith, and I don’t think it’s relevant who his father is. But for the love of God, could he please get Bijan Robinson the ball before I end up shelling out for steaks?

The Texans were headed for an ATS push before they *wisely* kneeled down on the PAT after their game-winning score.

Don’t accuse me of burying the lede in that game, as my push-to-loss on the kneel-down is the lede. C.J. Stroud also threw for 470 yards, five TDs and no picks. The last drive was some Joe Burrow/Patrick Mahomes shit, where the ball is finding the receiver somehow, on time and perfectly placed, with the clock running out. The Panthers GM should be on suicide watch after that performance. Your career can’t survive passing up the elite QB.

The AFC now has the following quarterbacks for the foreseeable future: Mahomes, Burrow, Stroud, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Tua. Herbert’s style reminds me more of Dan Marino, but he’s destined for Philip Rivers’ career.

I finally got to watch Victor Wembanyama — obvious he’ll be one of the best basketball players of all-time if his body can hold up. A freak among freaks.

I often see teams opt for the QB sneak and runs into the teeth of the defense on 2nd-and-1. Joe Burrow even got stuffed on one such attempt last night, and the Bengals ended up taking penalties and punting after that. Even an imbecile would prefer all his drives start on 2nd-and-1 rather than 1st-and-10, so why call a play to move the ball two feet further up the field to make that trade? Seems like a case of coaches overvaluing the success (yes, we made a first down!) rather than considering the actual results of it.

My comp for Josh Allen is John Elway. Remember Elway never won anything until he was just a caretaker, and while he made it to Super Bowls before that, he was in the softer conference. Put Elway in the NFC with Joe Montana/Steve Young, the Giants, Cowboys, Bears and Redskins, and he’d probably have made a lot of early-round playoff exits too. Allen is Elway, but in the harder conference.

Joshua Dobbs is a player. He has massive fantasy QB upside if and when Justin Jefferson gets back too.

My fantasy teams are bad this year because I was relying on Bijan Robinson, Waller, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf and Christian Watson as my main overlapping players. Watson in particular looks lost, though I blame that mostly on Jordan Love, who’s now as ironically named as Andrew Luck.

Cooper Kupp looked like a top-five pick when he returned, but without Matthew Stafford, forget it. He had fallen off even with Stafford though too.

Why are the Patriots even fielding a team this year? What is their purpose?

The Ravens have destroyed two first-place teams (Detroit and Seattle), but for some reason I’m still not a believer.

The Cowboys are like the Dolphins — dominant against weak teams, but not up to the task against good ones. That game actually ended perfectly for me as I had Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb going, and the Eagles minus three. The Cowboys completed a 20-yard pass to Lamb with no timeouts, so I got credit for the play and sealed the cover as time expired.

I don’t have any Tony Pollard, so I don’t mind, but what a bust he’s been for a completely healthy player on a high scoring team. He was drafted near the 1-2 turn, and his 16-game pace is 240-948-4, 58-380-0. As I said, the guys I targeted have also been disastrous, so I really shouldn’t talk, but it does bring me some small measure of solace to see it.

Bills down 14, running on 3rd and 1 to get the 1D with 5-6 mins left in 4Q. Coaches are out to lunch.

why did Burrow sneak on 2nd and inches from the Bills' 25?

If Wembanyama doesn't get hurt, he's going to be one of the GOATs. It's already obvious.

My Giants are the nut low

super annoying that scrub rookie kicker for the Saints flubbed the cover. Then the Texans kneel down on the PAT.