put some air under it Dak!
fucked up on Thanksgiving. Swapped out Saints D for Lions (0), and took Lions -7.5 in my ATS pools.
SURVIVING WEEK 12
(Previous post had this title, but should have been WEEK 12 ATS PICKS). Can't edit on NOSTR, so it is what it is.
Last week I lost one of my last two entries with the Football Team, but I pivoted to the Jaguars on the other, which is why I’m still writing this post.
Let’s take a look at Week 12:
At a glance, you can see there is really no pot-odds play here, as no team is more than 20 percent owned. Moreover, most of the big favorites — Lions, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins and 49ers have already been used, so you’re looking at teams like the Titans, Vikings, Patriots, Broncos and Colts.
I tentatively have the Patriots who are horrendous, unclear on which of their bad quarterbacks to start and playing on the road against a solid Giants defense. But they are coming off a bye and get to face Danny DeVito who took nine sacks last week against the Team. I also like that the Giants are coming off a dramatic win. Big buy low, sell high, but that works much better against the spread than in Survivor. I just mostly hate the other options.
If I change my mind, I’d probably pivot to the Titans who are at home and get a doormat on whom they can beat up. I just don’t trust a rookie QB against an okay defense.
The Vikings will have their hands full with the Justin Fields Bears, the Eagles have a short week against a desperate team and could overlook Buffalo a bit after beating the Chiefs in KC, while the Broncos and Colts are coin flips.
I’m probably sticking with the Pats even though I think the Giants are overall a better team. I just like the setup for them this week.
SURVIVING WEEK 12
I went 5-0 on the Normal entries last week, but 3-2 on the Ugly one. I’m having a solid year, but still a good eight games out of overall contest contention which is probably too much ground to gain in six weeks.
In any event, here are my picks (the non-Thanksgiving ones are subject to change):
Normal
I don’t love that the Lions won a close game, but so did the Packers last week, and I don’t think much of Jordan Love. I like the Lions to get back on track at home and win easily.
The Pats laying three is horrendous as it is the Giants who should be favored based on team quality, but this seems like a classic buy-low, sell-high, and the Giants got awfully lucky on turnovers last week while taking nine sacks.
I give the Justin Fields Bears a puncher’s chance against all the non-elite teams, and the Vikings are certainly non-elite.
The Raiders have shown up since Antonio Pierce took over, and the Chiefs have to come off a tough loss on a short week and travel to Vegas. This line seems a little large.
The Texans are equal to the Jaguars, yet they’re getting 1.5 at home.
Ugly
I swapped out the Patriots for the Jets, as 9.5 is a huge road line for the Dolphins, especially as the weather and wind start to become factors in late November.
Last week I went 5-0, 3-2 on the two sets of picks, so I’m back on track after a poor Week 10.
Here are my numbers for Week 11:
I can’t believe the Pats are laying wood on the road, even against the Giants. I’m probably missing something, and it’s a good buy-low, sell-high but just a strange number to me.
My Seahawks line assumes Geno Smith is playing, but the real line seems like there’s uncertainty. That’s a big number in Seattle.
I thought the Saints would be favored in Atlanta, but the market has them closer to being equal teams than I thought.
I’m buying the Raiders as a different team than before the house-cleaning. They’re not good, but they seem to show up at least. The Chiefs are off a short-week, heart-breaking loss. I think 9.5 seems excessive in Vegas.
I also see the Jags and Texans as roughly equal teams. It’s surprising the Jaguars are road favorites, albeit small ones.
Monday Night Observations:
I had the Chiefs -2.5, but I neglected to price in Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s hands. My bad — the model has since been adjusted to subtract three and a half points for each one.
I had Devonta Smith going in the Primetime which was nice and Jake Elliott going in the Steak League which was not so nice. It could have been better, and it could have been worse.
The short-yardage push play the Eagles run is such a massive advantage, I can’t understand why other teams won’t just watch the tape and copy it. If you have 3rd-and-3, you can just run it twice.
Patrick Mahomes missed two throws, but otherwise played an almost flawless game under pressure. There are QBs who can run like Lamar Jackson and go through progressions like Tom Brady, but no one makes better decisions when pressured and on the move. The only one I can remember who came close was peak Aaron Rodgers.
Rashee Rice is the only convincing receiver out there other than Travis Kelce. MVS shouldn’t be on this team, Skyy Moore has disappeared and Kadarius Toney is fun for gadget plays and punt returns. Mahomes could probably win another Super Bowl with Justin Watson as the leading receiver, but they’re making it unnecessarily hard on him.
Kelce’s fumble was also a crushing turning point in the game. He also had a third-down drop for which he made up on the next play.
Isiah Pacheco runs hard every play irrespective of the imminent punishment he’s about to take. I don’t think he’s long for the league, but he’s a solid player.
Jalen Hurts didn’t play especially well, but you never have to worry about him in fantasy with all the automatic goal line TDs. The real-life contrast between him and Mahomes was stark though.
Week 11 Observations
To be honest I don’t feel like going over the games in the usual format. It was a pretty good week, all things considered — 5-0 ATS in two entries, 3-1 in the other with the Chiefs -2.5 pending tonight. And while one of my last two Survivor entries got bounced with the Football Team, I pivoted to the Jaguars in the other because I had a hunch that might happen, and the trade off was worth it, given how many people likely got knocked out.
Maybe it’s my going-nowhere fantasy teams. The Primetime was in fourth place coming in, with an outside chance for the playoffs, but I ignored a hunch to sub in Brock Purdy for Dak Prescott, and every 14 points count with only three more weeks to make up an 80-point gap. My heuristic was roll with the hot hand in Dak, but the Panthers ugly it up, and I kind of knew better.
In the end, all heuristics are bullshit except one: make your own calls, whether bold or chalk, and live with your own mistakes. Relying on any other heuristic is no better than relying on Fantasy Midwits or the local astrologer — it’s an attempt to avoid making the choice for yourself.
I watched some of the Giants game. Kayvon Thibodeaux is a beast. I know Sam Howell is a walking sack, but Thibodeaux was everywhere, even in on some run plays. This is obviously a lost year for the Giants, but the Thibodeaux-Dexter Lawrence-Andrew Thomas nucleus is strong.
Saquon Barkley had a great game. The Giants couldn’t run at all for most of the day, and then he broke two long runs, on top of his two TD catches, one of which was a spinning back-shoulder grab while taking a hit in the end zone. In a parallel universe, he’s in the pantheon at the position.
Tommy DeVito took nine sacks, which wipes the shine off that 9.5 YPA, but he didn’t turn it over, and that throw to Saquon was perfect. Brian Daboll coached his destroyed team up pretty well under the circumstances. It also shows the difference between DeVito off the practice squad a month ago and after playing and practicing with the first team. When people act like the QB is so important because of the cavernous drop-off from starter to no-name backup, that’s in large part because it takes a month of good coaching for the no-name to be even marginally competent. It’s not because the league-average QB is worth $35M a year in his own right.
I watched a bunch of the Bears-Lions too. I started Goff, against Alan Seslowsky’s recommendation, over Kyler Murray in the Steak League, which cost me five points. But that was despite the Lions running in the game-winning TD, and Goff playing his worst home game of the year, i.e., this was a wrong call I can live with.
I had the Bears +7.5 as one of my picks which was a no-doubter all day — until the last 30 seconds when Aidan Hutchinson knocked the ball out of Justin Fields’ hand, and it was rolling around the end zone before getting knocked out for a safety. Had the Lions pounced on it, it would have been an epic bad beat.
Fields looked pretty good to me. If the Bears get the first overall pick (from the Panthers), they’ll have an interesting decision to make with respect to trading down or trading Fields. If I’m the Bears I let the market for each guide me. If a team wants the pick badly enough, I’d be okay to roll with Fields behind an absolutely monstrous stack of talent.
I’m glad the Chargers lost. I hate that team. It was also nice to see Christian Watson finally catch a TD.
Not that much else was interesting to me. The De’Von Achane and Kenny Walker injuries soured me a bit, and having Garrett Wilson in two leagues wasn’t ideal, but someone (not me) started Aaron Jones, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs and/or Najee Harris, so I take some solace in that.
I’ve mentioned this before, but it occurred to me again: Does no one else find it odd that a few months after 9/11, out of nowhere, a historically unparalleled NFL dynasty formed called the “Patriots?” just as congress was passing one of the most pernicious, invasive and consequential laws in US history entitled the “Patriot Act.” And like the dynasty which seemed set to expire a few times, it got renewed over and over. Certainly a strange coincidence, but probably too on the nose to be anything more.
Always found it a bit too on the nose that the "Patriots" became an unlikely (and unparalleled) NFL dynasty a couple months after 9/11 as the "Patriot Act" was in the works. Not saying it's anything more than a coincidence, but just an uncanny one.
that was awesome -- pick six. Lost one of my 2 survivor entries but well worth it
then forced to burn it anyway!
WAS trying to save that TO, commit false start. Hilarious.
The Bears cover just flashed before my eyes on that safety
Daboll knows how to coach
Christian Watson has one target today. Probably my worst pick
love the Giants playing well against the Team
Week 11 ATS Picks
I went 1-4 last week in all three pools (I used the same picks), which was disappointing after I had been on quite a roll. My overall records dropped from six, seven and eight games over .500 to three, four and five, respectively. Whatever dream I might have had of getting into overall contention is dead. The only silver lining is not having a Circa Millions-winning season the year I skipped the Circa Millions.
Here are this week’s picks:
I used the same picks for both “Normal” entries.
I like the Bears with Justin Fields back against a vulnerable Lions defense. Detroit should put up points, but I think the Bears keep up.
I know the Dolphins blow out bad teams, but this line is huge, and the Raiders have shown a pulse of late. Plus, playing in Miami in mid-November isn’t quite the same as going there in early September.
The Giants are terrible, but Danny DeVito is getting experience, the Team just had a heartbreaking loss, the Giants played for 60 minutes last week, and nine is enough points.
The Jaguars are a hunch pick. They’re mediocre, but I like a buy-low off a blowout.
The Niners seem like the kind of team that will work the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is okay, but the defense will be too much for him.
Only two picks differ here: the Jets and the Chiefs.
The Bills are off balance, and the Jets typically show up and play hard. I’ll take seven points.
I like the Chiefs laying less than three at home. Just a hunch Andy Reid will have his team ready after the bye.
One other thing that occurred to me in the Charissa Thompson story: all the coaches she made up comments from could easily get wind of or rewatch the broadcast if they wanted to and come forward to say she was making it up, but none did.
That's probably because they didn't care and were actually relieved they didn't have to deal with her during the game.
best part about hard fantasy sports lineup decision is remembering the right attitude. I make the decisions, I make the mistakes. Culture > process.
The two most bullshit jobs in sports are sideline reporter and rules analyst. I couldn't care less if Gene Steratore dropped a sheet of acid before his segment. In fact I would prefer it.