USA is ranked 24th for personal freedom on the 2023 freedom index. Between Italy and Uruguay.

Will probably drop out the top 50 if they put kill switches in cars.

Having some grip of information theory is suddenly critical again, a bit like it was in the late 80’s. These are short windows until someone figures it all out and executes it.

Probably ownership and property rights are going to bifurcate a lot of nation states as AI and machines sweep across the economy.

Scandinavia is going to have publicly owned assets and the Anglosphere will have private robo-workforces, whilst Russia will go straight to robo-mercenaries. Who can own AI? Is it legal is it moral? Where is the line? That’s going to be fuzzy and many jurisdictions will have different ideas.

Property rights will be an issue of tension. Then consider taxes and how those are raised? What if I employ 2 million robots but live overseas?

Messy.

Yes, if you think about it… words themselves are extremely low bandwidth. So it initially seems human communication is extremely slow.

But combinations of just a fews words is actually an incredibly vast storage space (12 words prove this phenomena).

Sentences (not even paragraphs) have an enormous Shannon number, and therefore sentences are essentially an insanely powerful compression function for communication of the sophisticated abstractions that we each hold in our heads.

LLM’s have undeniably cracked this compression function and also now build their own internal abstractions from these decipherings. LLM’s are also able to communicate their abstractions the other way via the same compression function.

Those 3 capabilities are really impressive and were actually quite simple to reach through mere scaling.

But LLM’s are yet to emulate abstractions of our direct jungle experience. I think ML can do this, as we see with self guided rocket boosters, drones and driverless cars. I think the multimodal LLM’s are now beginning to bridge the two worlds of cyber and jungle. Once they do, the next step is that they can then navigate the jungle by being embodied as robots.

I expect we will see all that in around 10 years. The race is real, still not spoken about much is the fact that it solves demographic taxbase erosion without the need for inward migration for all the major economies and we are already seeing Western politics turning away from the immigration strategy.

You can walk through where this is all heading and the societal choices that populations and powers will face along the way.

But again, I think we will land on highly specialised forests and not monoliths. I think we will see declouding and embodiment and I think we will own local embodied private agents, with the state owning large numbers of their own public agents.

A social protocol of disseminated power will emerge and it will be enforced by the tyranny of majority.

I think society is going to go through a series of radical changes, migration U-turn will be the first, as we are collectively persuaded to collaborate with the interests of our local power centre (political capital).

From my own experience scrubbing up the data quality is the secret sauce in all of this, I would take halving the anomalies v’s 25x volume in any training dataset.

But my point above is really about the application of AI. I still think generalisation is a mirage, you want 10^6 specialist models each deployed on 10^3 instances rather than 1 general model deployed 10^9 instances.

You get those specialists via automated data quality ops.

Automate the folks doing the automating.

Build a specialist forest instead of a monolith.

Then you have to workflow the specialists.

Then make it dynamic / self organising.

This is the path.

I think agents will have to be owned, or our legal system will fall over pretty quickly.

But law of the jungle (I’m gonna start using this term a lot more), will eventually win out and systems will have to be resilient to operating under jungle law (no law at all).

Local AI, is a lot like the second amendment. It’s a check on unchecked power and I think it will be inevitable that early proliferation will make local AI ubiquitous.

Bitcoin works under jungle law and so does nostr. Permissionless tech is really going to become more necessary, but we are probably 15 years early here? I am often too early on these sort of things.

Super hard to predict this stuff, but it probably pays to have high conviction here and just be in the right place indefinitely and just wait for the right time.

It is. I think lots of countries are just run quite differently to what we are used to.

Both China and India are two huge societies that have massive internal population bodies that are basically unseeable from outside.

I know I don’t understand what these societies are like on the inside.

India’s demographic pyramid is also pretty clean and their population has a high fraction of children. Only 5% of Indians are over 60.

Their peak cohort is currently 16, so expect their economy to foom over next 15 years.

With all this in mind, probably makes sense to avert any sort of famine and promote social cohesion. They’re really in the starting blocks.

OK, this is the most profound forward looking thing that’s occurred to me in the past 6 months.

For 30 years big tech is built on B2C models that leverage the enormous surface of the internet. Build 1 good monetisation channel and just scale it to 10^9 people.

But AI is not like this. Not at all.

AI is a solution to the sprawling complexity of discrete connections that network throughout the entire economy. It is 10^6 monetisation channels each occurring 10^3 instances.

To win this space you need a B2B biz model and you need legendary workflow management.

This makes it much easier to filter out winners and losers over the next 10 years.

I actually think ChatGPT will disappear as it’s a loss leader product and only the OpenAI API will survive, but it will have to compete with a bunch of other API’s and local models.

I think it’s obvious that the end state is local AI. There will be a day when training peaks and then terminally declines as economics is the real law of the jungle.

Chasing diminishing returns is simply not worth the cost. There is no free lunch here.

Wealthiest man on Earth doesn’t understand money?

Called it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-18/openai-board-being-pressed-by-some-investors-to-reinstate-altman

Something like this…

MSFT -> OpenAI:

Attached, letter signed by shareholder quorum for an emergency AGM at 0800 Monday. Agenda below:

Vote of Confidence, Ilya Sutskever

Vote of Confidence, Adam D’Angelo

Vote of Confidence, Tasha McCauley

Vote of Confidence, Helen Toner

Have a great weekend,

Satya

MSFT 8,617 - 0 Startups

OpenAI in talks with Altman to return as CEO.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo

Running from RAM is the future.

Watching Science and Technology journalist fumble their way through the past 24 hours is actually pure comedy.

“The inventor of AI has been fired” 😲

“The rocket broke in two and exploded” 🥹

Embarrassing.

News orgs should hire 1 engineer to cover this stuff instead of a brain dead nepobaby. Joke products.

Has anyone created a text file of all the NIP’s yet, so that I can very quickly / easily pass them to GPT?

Lots of people are comparing Sam Altman to Steve Jobs’ firing at Apple, partly because they were both founders

But wrong!

At OpenAI, the product development guy just fired the CEO. That’s the opposite of what happened at Apple in ‘85.

Some people are blaming the inexperienced board… who hired those people?

Some are blaming the overly complicated corporate structure… who built that?

If OpenAI is going back to their charter… Open Source… Not For Profit… will they FOSS these models? 🤔

In the future, all cables will be USBC

Occam’s Razor:

Ilya Sutskever didn’t like watching someone do victory laps, and take all the credit for his life’s work.

$10,000 says whoever the permanent CEO of OpenAI they select is, it is someone who is an active participant / member of WEF.

That was a joke. OpenAI fired him. Literally.

https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition

My bet is they have cease and desist letters for using data without permission, sama assumed them everything was fine, but their legal advice came back as “shut it down”.