One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

Proof of leaving the house.

Your #skin is your largest organ…

Everything you touch, your skin absorbs…

Walk through your typical day… how many products do you use/touch with your bare skin that you use without considering what it’s made of? How many of those are actually healthy to put on your skin?

The disgusting truth is, that most products we use EVERY DAY that we auto pilot purchase at the grocery store weekly or monthly contain toxic fragrance chemicals and agents that are negatively impacting our health, insidiously, every single time we use them…

shampoo & conditioner

laundry detergent

deodorant

dish soap

cleaners

bug spray

toothpaste

The big brand products ALL contain some of the worst toxins you can expose yourself to… just do some quick research if you want to know how bad it is…

So… let’s talk quick and easy solutions…

Soap - buy handmade soap, free of fragrance chemicals using organic essential oils

Shampoo & Conditioner - Stop using them, full stop! Unless you can find a specialty product that is hand-made… Use organic soap if your hair is actually dirty, or once weekly to clean it, and then use a raw egg on your scalp (whip first then massage into scalp and leave for 5-10 min before rinsing) twice per week to restore nutrients… just try it, it works great!

Deodorant - buy a salt crystal and use it after showering… it’s a natural way to reduce odor and if you eat clean food, you will not smell bad! One of these lasts over 10 years

Dish soap - Buy Dr. Bronners pure Castile soap and dilute 1:10 into a foaming bottle… best hand washed dishes ever

Cleaner - for floors and countertops mix hot water, lemon 🍋 & white vinegar… you can drop some essential oils in also if you like

Laundry detergent - find a natural detergent to buy… I use a coconut based product… very important to find something natural for this! I don’t use Dr. Bronners soap for this because it’s expensive and hard to find where I live, but if you can buy it in large quantities it’s 100% worth it and even more economical than regular detergent!

Lotion - use cuts from an Aloe Vera plant if your skin is dry, or find an organic lotion that has no fragrances in it

Bug spray - use an essential oil mix and cover up

Toothpaste - choose a non-fluoride option!

Hope that helps some of you who might be aware of how toxic most of the everyday products out there are, but haven’t gotten a push to switch to a more natural solution 🙌🏼🫡

#nostr #grownostr #introductions #health #natural #organic #toxins #plebchain #coffeechain #bitcoin #fitness #selfcare #toothpaste

I didn't ask my mom to send me a nice DM about my wine.

I promise 🍷

The biggest brain play is to make an alt account, post to #introductions and scam the network for 13 cents worth of zaps

Hey everyone I'm a registered massage therapist just checking out this nostr thing, who are some people to follow? #introductions

Buckle up. Bought them all. Spot. With my credit card. Let’s f* go #Bitcoin.

Falling down the Nostr rabbit hole means that you end up with a folder on your phone like this.

An entire fortnight in California, I did eat quite a few burgers. Habit Burger was 💯