One of my takeaways from TFTC 404 with Konstantin Kisin:

Don't fight fire with fire. Not even the metaphor works 😅

I don’t wanna get too ahead of myself but we may be about to see a major public reckoning on what on earth banks even are and what they are supposed to do.

SVB didn’t go down due to “the tech bubble” or really anything to do with “banking Silicon Valley” being a bad idea. if anything, it’s a great idea! Their deposits went up ~2.5x in 2 years because there was a shit load of cash that needed to be banked! (debate separately to what extent that was a ZIRP phenomenon. I’m not saying this was good in the grand scheme of things. just that, in context, it was good business).

the problem is what to put the money in. most nocoiners seem to think that their deposits just sit there “as money,” and although I’m sure they don’t imagine notes in a vault, exactly, to a large extent that was true for SVB: they held treasuries - the “risk free” asset lmfao - which is as close to cash as you can get in a liquid security.

the conundrum here is that there literally is no such thing as “liquid dollars” - there is only credit. all dollar assets are somebody else’s debt. for all intents and purposes, treasuries *are dollars*. the idea of “keeping it in cash” at the relevant magnitudes is literally nonsensical. what would it even mean? deposit it at *another bank*? that hardly solves the problem!

the further you tug at this thread, the more you realise that dollars can only really be defined as vacuous promises by the US government to … one day give you slightly more dollars?!? that realisation is now getting aired in public.

I think the first consequence as this starts to sink in will be a massive preference for shorter term debt that can just be rolled over and over and over because the lesson of SVB is the duration sensitivity is absolutely not worth it. you can literally evaporate hundreds of billions of dollars by getting that just a little wrong even though you didn’t have much of a choice (“RISK FREE ASSET” LOLOLOLOLOLOL) this is yet another example of fiat driving up time preference and corrupting the information signals necessary to coordinate long-term capital investment. but oh well, the currency is collapsing so we have bigger fish to fry than the yield of long-dated bonds 😂

but the juicy bit is that we may be on the cusp of this reasoning, and the insanity of fractional reserve and central banking, finally being aired in public as people try to make sense of all this.

or maybe not, I dunno. maybe I’m naive. but I’m also bullish 🤙

The last 12 CL titles were won by 5 different clubs, I would just be happy if it wasn't Real Madrid, Bayern or Chelsea for a change. It is going to be Bayern though this year I think.

This is not a bank by US law. It just a storage house with good security and insurance. The moment they offer interest on the dollar holdings, they go to jail.

This is basically not possible in the US system. Even offering interest on dollars is only legal two ways. You offering a registered security, you are a licensed bank.

This is largely why all the shitcoin people claiming their things are not securities are going to lose if they even make it to court.

This was essentially the point of the SPDI in Wyoming. The problem with State Bank charters as I understand is that you still have one of the Fed or FDIC as your regulator in addition to your state regulator. The SPDI was specifically architected to get around the FDIC, be largely regulated in state, but still get the benefits of Fed membership. It’s a tricky needle to thread and I don’t believe any state charters would achieve what you’re saying, other than the SPDI in Wyoming which is getting challenged by the Fed currently.

I’m guessing there’s an assumption, here that such an institution would be *more* responsible thenother banks that are connected to the Fed, but from the feds perspective, or my perspective, or anybody else’s perspective, we don’t know this. So while you think obviously they wouldn’t be diluting the shit out of the dollar if they’re allowed to issue their own loans and make their own rules etc. etc. nothing really stops them and us Americans have the dollars brand to uphold.

What are the regulators going to do if the bank is just a few vaults filled with insured physical cash, and the bank does full AML/KYC?

You might be able to find funding to start such a bank purely to show how ridiculous the regulators are being. Doesn't necessarily need to make a profit to be worth doing.

What is Pie day literarily

Pie 🥧?

March 14th in Uk is something much more let's say hmmm I can't find the word actually 🥩🤣🤣🤣🤣

I think it is extremely conceivable. I’ve heard #[5]​ talk about this in a podcast before I believe.

Once the Fed govt starts to push some sort of CBDC or even get more intentional about shutting down on/off ramps to Bitcoin, pro-Bitcoin and pro-crypto politicians will find a voting populace looking for politicians that back their interest.

I think it’s very likely that this could eventually lead to a divide in our country that could possibly split the country in a more permanent way.

Tom should have won it by himself .. 🤙🏼

I don’t think many people on Nostr keep up with Love Island