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allen
826e9f895b81ab41a4522268b249e68d02ca81608def562a493cee35ffc5c759
hopescrolling webšŸ°

NETFLIX YOU MOTHERFUCKERS 😔

#LoveIsBlindLiveReunion #LiveMyAss #ImAngry #Hashtag

thrilled to report that not only does my new flat have a microwave, but that I just discovered the washing machine is ALSO a dryer!!!

I aspire to one day acquire a dishwasher and literally drop dead of hedonism.

excuse me, miss, this is a unisex concern (probably? I don’t really know). don’t be sexist.

exactly. here, nobody can censor me for earnest poop related inquiry.

I normally sit down to poop as well. although sometimes I guess when you are outside you don’t really have that option. but then in that scenario you probably are less worried about the mess of unexpected pee anyway so idk šŸ¤·ā€ā™€ļø

is there a word for when you are pooping but then you also pee unexpectedly and everything is a little frantic while you get it all under control?

I bet German has a word for this.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Too many people have given Elon a pass. Don't give him a pass.

He's a marketer, not a founder or an engineer. He didn't found PayPal or Tesla; he bought into them early. He's good at selling narratives and equity valuation for perpetually unprofitable companies.

Everything for him is a narrative. His green revolution was a narrative to sell more cars and get more subsidies. His bitcoin purchase was to gain appeal among bitcoin/crypto people in a bull market. And he shilled doge like a dumbass. His SpaceX narrative is to get money from the government.

His rooftop solar thing was an outright scam; the technology isn't ready and went nowhere because of that. His full-self-driving-in-an-intermediate-term timeline was a scam, and is going nowhere because of that. He makes scams to draw people and capital in, because for him it's all about narratives and equity valuation.

And then he dug unproductive holes, suggested unproductive hyper-tubes, built meme flamethrowers, for what? It's a narrative, not a business. None of this is real productive shit to make peoples' lives better.

His latest "we need free speech" narrative was a scam too. He tapped into something real, which is what marketers do and why it kind of worked. Yes, we need free speech. Yes, Twitter had censorship issues. He saw that and jumped on it maliciously rather than productively.

But what did he replace it with? He replaced it with arbitrary journalist censorship about his private jet, arbitrary censorship of Substack, selective Twitter Files release, won't talk seriously about any of his China connections because Xi Jinping fucking owns him economically there like Jack Ma, has his balls firmly in his grasp, etc.

Elon's playing the narrative, the anti-woke meme of the day. He's a master meme-momentum-player. Don't fall for it.

but how do you really feel, Lyn?

the assets are short term corporate and government debt, not bank liabilities.

Replying to Avatar allen

I don’t wanna get too ahead of myself but we may be about to see a major public reckoning on what on earth banks even are and what they are supposed to do.

SVB didn’t go down due to ā€œthe tech bubbleā€ or really anything to do with ā€œbanking Silicon Valleyā€ being a bad idea. if anything, it’s a great idea! Their deposits went up ~2.5x in 2 years because there was a shit load of cash that needed to be banked! (debate separately to what extent that was a ZIRP phenomenon. I’m not saying this was good in the grand scheme of things. just that, in context, it was good business).

the problem is what to put the money in. most nocoiners seem to think that their deposits just sit there ā€œas money,ā€ and although I’m sure they don’t imagine notes in a vault, exactly, to a large extent that was true for SVB: they held treasuries - the ā€œrisk freeā€ asset lmfao - which is as close to cash as you can get in a liquid security.

the conundrum here is that there literally is no such thing as ā€œliquid dollarsā€ - there is only credit. all dollar assets are somebody else’s debt. for all intents and purposes, treasuries *are dollars*. the idea of ā€œkeeping it in cashā€ at the relevant magnitudes is literally nonsensical. what would it even mean? deposit it at *another bank*? that hardly solves the problem!

the further you tug at this thread, the more you realise that dollars can only really be defined as vacuous promises by the US government to … one day give you slightly more dollars?!? that realisation is now getting aired in public.

I think the first consequence as this starts to sink in will be a massive preference for shorter term debt that can just be rolled over and over and over because the lesson of SVB is the duration sensitivity is absolutely not worth it. you can literally evaporate hundreds of billions of dollars by getting that just a little wrong even though you didn’t have much of a choice (ā€œRISK FREE ASSETā€ LOLOLOLOLOLOL) this is yet another example of fiat driving up time preference and corrupting the information signals necessary to coordinate long-term capital investment. but oh well, the currency is collapsing so we have bigger fish to fry than the yield of long-dated bonds šŸ˜‚

but the juicy bit is that we may be on the cusp of this reasoning, and the insanity of fractional reserve and central banking, finally being aired in public as people try to make sense of all this.

or maybe not, I dunno. maybe I’m naive. but I’m also bullish šŸ¤™

my prediction is coming true: cash is coming out of fractional reserve banks and going into money market funds, which is to say there is a spontaneous maturity *rematching* occurring as people start to seriously wonder what their money even is.

there is no good answer, but the least bad answers involve rolling short-term credit such that if you *have to* hold an unsecured liability, it may as well be liquid and it may as well be ā€œbackedā€ by a solvent entperise, if not the literal money printer.

(all of which is totally fine for pricing long term capital allocation, btw, TOTALLY FINE)

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1644335648063537153

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not Prague but hopefully Dam if timing works out.