Delayed effects of remarkable dollar strength (and its effects on global M2) since the beginning of 4Q 2024 finally setting in to #bitcoin?

Range guesses (and order) still in play:

1. 105k-120k (already achieved?)

2. 75k-85k (probable low watermark for late 2024 or early 2025)

3. Zig zag higher, with mid-summer 2025 challenges

4. Ultimately, 200k-1M (target: #475k) still in play for 4Q 2025 or even 1Q 2026, until (when/if) the facts change

Just my guesses, obviously.

Thought experiment.

Option # 1

Let’s say you have 10 bitcoin and we hit 2 million in the next few years.

You’re tempted so you sell it for 20 million dollars.

After taxes you’re be left with 16MM.

Which you use to comfortably generate 1.2MM a year in the tradfi markets.

So you take the money and retire.

Bitcoin crashes 60% back to 800k.

For a few years you feel like a genius. You enjoy your new rich person lifestyle.

You even buy back a few bitcoin. 2 to be exact. 20% of what you used to have.

Then bitcoin rises over the next decade to be worth 50 million per coin.

You’re worth 120 million now. And you decide to sell a little over half a coin and upgrade your lifestyle again to be able to generate an additional 2 million a year.

You’re now on paper worth 120 million, you generate 3.2 million a year (266k a month) and you’ve been largely stress free for the last decade.

Your kids will inherit roughly 1.62 bitcoin from you upon your death.

You have some level of regret about not hodling through, but you’ve been largely stress free and the mental health benefit was worth it in your mind.

Vs.

Option # 2

You have the same 10 bitcoin but you Hodl them.

Your stress levels are persistently higher.

You also decide to retire when Bitcoin hits 2 mil, but you decide to do so in bitcoin terms.

Your plan is to sell a little bitcoin as needed in order to fund your lifestyle.

This is roughly 1-3 million sats a month. Depending on bitcoin price.

Over the course of 10 years you end up selling or spending 2.4 bitcoin and are still left worth 7.6btc when bitcoin reaches 50 million.

Your net worth is 380 million.

You’ve reduced your lifestyle in bitcoin terms down to a million sats a month. (500k) or 6 million per year. You’re 46, Assuming you live until you’re 90 you will pass down 2.32 bitcoin to your kids.

You have no regrets about the way you played it, but your stress was consistently higher and there were a few scary months along the way.

Which option do you choose?

1 or 2?

Your testosterone levels dictate entirely whether you believe in objective truth or not

Game day ready! #nfl #seahawks. Who else is watching? #sportstr

WTF?

It turns out that the French president invited Durov to dine together. Pavel told about this during interrogation by the police, the French newspaper Le Canard Chainé claims. But instead of lunch, Durov was met in France by local police. Macron did not officially confirm this. But local politician Florian Philippot said that this was quite in the spirit of the French president.

I anticipate 75% of all new people will bounce back to X because they are hooked on the doomscrolling. It takes a good amount of time and deleting your account cold turkey to shake the addiction.

But, they’ll be back in 5 months wondering why they left in the first place.

I’ve been off Twitter and all social media except for Nostr for a month now, and the results are hard to argue with.

I’ve started reading real books again (4 this month) and have noticed both my patience and attention increase noticeably. I also feel less angry and anxiety daily, along with being committed to my workout routine.

I found that Nostr has met my social media needs, most importantly, my own ability to self-limit with it. Nostr is a bit ‘boring’ compared to traditional social media because ITS NOT TRYING TO KILL YOU!!!

Controlling your own data isn’t nearly as important in terms of ownership, as it is about allowing that information to be used against you. All of your most intimate thoughts and feelings are data mining by massive corporations specifically to find emotional triggers for you, so they can sell you shit, or force thoughts on to you.

Fuck these people that run these companies that farm our emotions to sell us shit, and to work with corrupt government to censor our speech, sell out dissidents, and destroy our internet.

We are much, much, much more powerful than they will ever be because we don’t need force, corrosion, or permission to run these systems of social connections that they cannot destroy.

My month of social media detox has really lifted the veil from the hate industry complex that are all social media companies today. Stop prostitution your content, thoughts and powers to these shitty companies that enrich the scum of the earth, and empower illegal, unconstitutional and immoral government agencies from their dragnet surveillance.

I’ll make one last tweet explaining this and then nuking my account in the next few weeks. Then I’ll be Nostr only.

EXACTLY 15 years ago today, Satoshi Nakamoto debated naming #Bitcoin "Titcoin" 🤯

I can't believe Satoshi even considered this! 🤣

“Nothing is certain except death and taxes and $58K Bitcoin.“

- Benjamin Franklin, paraphrased

Folks over on X are having a difficult time understanding why I’m focusing my efforts on #nostr.

Here’s why:

Instead of frequently doing/joining Twitter Spaces, I'm thinking of firing up #Nostr Nests going forward.

A good idea or nah?

Is there significant interest here on #nostr for macro, investing and (obviously) Bitcoin-related discussions?

I'd love to build and share ideas more on #nostr rather than on X.

Global M2 is surging uncontrollably, and efforts to suppress #Bitcoin price are intensifying. The question is, how much longer can they maintain this facade? Not very long!

Yeah I mean it’s not a top 10 voting issue they need to worry about in this election, so that’s the challenge. I think chuck Schumer and other Dems are just getting tired of not moving forward on this issue though.

I think in due time we’ll see that shift and all can move on lol. (Whether Kamala and Warren like it or not).

The only thing I’m worried about is more the three letter agencies and any “emergencies” they’d like to pronounce to take away bitcoin rights. Congress and admin I’m less worried about for any extreme moves atm

Make bitcoiners anarchists again 😑

From a technical perspective, my favorite short term positive divergence is a rising global M2 monetary supply and a sideways-to-down bitcoin price.

… which is what is currently happening.

FWIW.

🔥🚀🔥

Thanks Jeff! X feels empty (or, at least, lacking) without you, Odell, and many other Bitcoiners.