I think prediction markets are pretty neat. They were the primary way of predicting the outcome of elections prior to the invention of modern opinion polling.
In recent weeks the polymarket for the US presidential election has noticeably diverged from the polling. The polls have stayed flat, it’s essentially a coin flip as to who will win. The prediction markets have broke to Trump with a 60% chance of winning. Is this a real shift that bettors are seeing vs the polls or is someone manipulating the market. You could make the argument that placing bets on your preferred candidate is a capital efficient way of shifting the outcome. Journalists use the markets to shape their coverage and will start writing articles about momentum when they see the prediction markets shift. Elections are very messy so it’s easy enough to find evidence of momentum in any direction if you’re looking for examples to fit the narrative. And the narrative about a candidate pulling ahead will lead to more press and focus and is likely to help the candidate get more votes on Election Day.
All of this to say it appears one person is attempting to do this in favor of Trump.
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bettor-trump-harris-betting-pair-polymarket/
I can see what you mean Rabble. I studied a bit of data analysis recently and the central limit theorem instead uses the law of large numbers for a normal distribution bell curve in a hypothesis test of say an example - voting results. This requires a greater variety and numbers in sample size to avoid errors. The larger the sample size and use of confidence intervals, the more accurate the prediction. For example, in 2016, the polling sizes where just to small for the accuracy of those predictions. So the polling and this poly market could be diverging based on the law of large numbers. Which seems to be what the article discovered. Though, now you got me thinking about the rabbit hole 🕳️ of the data the media is using and their giant megaphone and the influence of changing those votes too🤦♀️
Awesome :) 👏
My great, great, great grandmother Laskarina Bouboulina.
It’s like the no junk mail sign on a letter box. Though I like clicking the 🤙 :)
I’m good Phil. Yeah, just been juggling studies and other stuff. I’m at the quantitative stage of my studies too, so like it has been all-consuming.
Hope you have been well!
Daniel Day-Lewis is amazing in it. He is really good in Lincoln too.
Season 1 :) watching the early dynamics and chemistry of O'Neill, Jackson, Teal'c, Carter, Hammond and Fraiser play out was gold. I was only a little kid at the time when I saw the show, but I swear I learnt the craft of acting from these pros, they left such an impression on me. Richard Dean Anderson and what I could only assume now was genius ad libbing made me laugh so much. He just knew how to be relaxed and wholeheartedly truthful. Amanda Tapping is a director now too, which is just so cool.
Seen them all too :) welcome to the club ✨